Colin Campbell puts the oil age into 'Perspective’

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http://transitionculture.org/?p=421#more-421

The first proper speech of ASPO 5 was by Dr. Colin Campbell, and was called ‘Peak Oil in Perspective’. He began by talking about the history of ASPO, how it was born in Germany in 2000 as an informal network and now has organisations in 20 countries, the term peak oil has now entered the dictionary. Although there is a lot of work still to do, the fact that we are near the end of the Age of Cheap Oil is no longer in dispute. All times of transition are hard, but perhaps at the end we reach a better place.

cjOthers will discuss areas such as petroleum geology, ambiguous definitions of types of oil, the impact of technology, misleading reserve reporting practices, political responses and so on, but it may be useful here to get a larger perspective. In the beginning animals got their energy from their muscles, early people were the same, living as hunter gatherers. 10,000 years ago the first agriculture emerged, needed external energy in the form of horses and/or slaves.

So what are the tensions of transition? One is whether or not this tension will trigger a stock market crash. All the companies are overvalued, which is assuming business as usual in terms of energy. Does this spell a second Great Depression? There are a few ironies around the whole depletion area. Firstly that better technology actually accelerates depletion. Secondly that it is very hard to produce oil on a battlefield.

Peak oil will likely lead to reductions in trade and a return to regionalism, possibly to the end of the nation state. Will power return to the regions? We can already see local currencies beginning to emerge.