We don't know because all the oil is
privately held. It is
certain that the figures we are getting are inflated. The "Peak Oil" literature contains ample documentation of this pervasive fraud.
The inflated oil numbers will be
deflated once it becomes profitable to do so.
The fraud can never be definitively proven, either, because much of the oil is unrecoverable. Most petrologists think that is right around half of it. It would require more energy to take it from the ground than it can yield when burned in any kind of engine, even at (so-called) 100% chemical-bond-breaking efficiency. Therefore, in the ground it will stay -- unless there is a compelling need for the petrochemical form of the energy itself, such as military vehicles.
The energy of nuclear and alternative energy systems are better accounted for, mainly because of the scrutiny they get for scientific, political and financial purposes. But they, too, rise and fall on the same unreliable information about petroleum, and there have also been recent examples of number-manipulation where agricultural biodiesel and ethanol fuels are concerned.
Yes, it matters, because we will be unable to figure out where we are on the petroleum availability/price curve. We could be as far as five years out past Peak Oil right now; I personally suspect we're on the plateau, and have a couple of years to go before the supply decline (and price incline) begins. Even optimists like Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Research Associates think Peak Oil is only about 30 years away.
Because our economic system is dominated by just-in-time (or crisis-based) management philosophies, there will be no substantial progress made in switching to non-petroleum energy sources until the decline begins. Unfortunately, energy systems work on longer periods of time than it takes for people to die of cold, illness, or starvation, and this gap could, let's just say, cause
trouble.
That's why all this wonky-sounding stuff is important. The world's energy supply, every joule of it, is being wheeled and dealed in an energy market that's little more than a giant
bucket shop. They have all the information and a huge amount of money, and we
don't. Incidentally, in regards to the recent posts about the nukeness or altness of energy: it doesn't matter. The bastards control everything, and the market is utterly corrupt. Our very lives depend on a loose society of self-absorbed thieves.
--p!