Tropical Depression 5 recognized by NOAA.

[skids]

It's disorganized, and it's got to contend with a lot of sheer, but it's on the map over the windward islands.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5_sm2+gif/205704W_sm.gif

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THOUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/242051.shtml

[Joanne98]

1. What's Debbie doing?

[skids]

2. Debbie is likely going to spin off north.

It had a couple setbacks in organization, but is still forecast for H1 status.

There's another well defined low cyclonic coming off the Africa coast on Debby's heels right now. Even money IMO as to whether 5 or this becomes the next storm.

[Joanne98]

5. thanx

[phantom power]

6. Dallas?

[William769]

3. Our local news (S.W. Florida)

Showed it going on a more North/Easterly course today.

[Dudley_DUright]

7. I could only find the NHC model, I don't know of any other computer

model that has been run on TD5 yet.

[jpak]

4. Go away

n/t

[skids]

8. `Fraid it won't.

Once it cut through that last bit of sheer it looks to have formed up in a nice even circle. And the sheer winds to the north of it are going to move north ahead of it, so it's got a clear run at least till the gulf, unless it slips sideways and hits Cuba.

It didn't look like much at first but I'd keep my eye on this one now.

[Boomer]

9. How warm are the Gulf waters?

Katrina and Rita exploded when they hit the Gulf last year....

[phantom power]

10. As warm as last year: