1,500 days until the Peak

[4dsc]

Let the countdown begin. Although its been a countdown since Hubbert discovered the concept of peak oil..

http://www.energybulletin.net/19777.html

Oil powers 80-95% of all transport, 50-75% of all oil is used for transportation, 99% of all lubrication is done with oil products, 95% of all goods in the shops get there using oil, 99% of our food involves oil or gas for fertilisers, agrochemicals, tilling, cultivation and transport. Oil is the most important source of primary energy on the planet accounting for 36.4% of all energy. What do current high oil prices tell us? The market is saying ‘send more oil!’. Economics need a balance of supply and demand, they assume that high prices bring new demand, yet high prices have failed to bring any new supply to meet this demand. In the Third World, high oil prices are already having a huge impact.

Demand is now starting to come down to reach supply. So why are supplies peaking? We are not finding enough new oil. We are not developing new fields fast enough, our old fields are getting very tired. In 2005 we found 5 bn barrels, and we used 30 bn, a ratio of 6:1.

ccording to his year’s BP statistics, OECD production peaked in 1997,non-OPEC production peaked in 2002, North America and Mexico peaked in 2000, and are in a 19.2% decline. While economists live in a fantasy world, we have to look at realities here.

So what can we do? We need a mixture of biofuels, efficiency, heavy oil and tar sands and a nuclear renewal. Supply will be tight and the price will remain high. Peak will occur between 2010 and 2011, at 92-94 million barrels a day. We are still in denial of this, but the fact is that we only have 1,500 days until the peak. The new EIA report says the same thing, although couched in caveats and provisos.

[peacetalksforall]

1. Does anyone ever think that the countries we are warring with and have

taken over in the last six years - Haiti, Afghanistan, Iraq and the ones we tried to take over - VenezueBa nd Bolivia and the ones we're waiting for - Iran, North Korea, and Cuba - and the one Rev Moon is caretaking for us - Paraguay - are the ones where the most profitiable resources are - locations that 'they' know about and are keeping a secret for themselves as long as they can or until they have taken it over (whichever comes first)?

Extra question: How many deep down resources can be identified and affirmed from a satellite?

[Parisle]

2. And After the "Peak," ...

---- These numbers are somewhat dated, and may be somewhat understated,... but they illustrate what the "Peak Oil" phenomenon is capable of doing. The "projected estimates" were that oil production would fall off by roughly 1.5% in each year following peak oil production. Meanwhile, demand would increase by a similar 1.5% annually,... resulting in a 3% shortfall the first year, 6% the second year, and so on. You don't have to be a whiz at Malthusian geometric exponentials to see where this is going.

[hunter]

3. The transition to coal will not be terribly difficult.

Conversion of coal into all the products you mention is a mature technology, and probably "competitive" as oil approaches $100 a barrel.

The "Oh Shit, that was a mistake..." realization will come later, brought by drought, by floods, by storms, and by rising sea levels.

[Dogmudgeon]

4. How well will the coal be used?

Coal is an horrendously "dirty" source of energy. Of course, it can be cleaned up, but cleaning it comes at a cost, and our economic system is based on cutting costs and boosting prices. Nuclear energy has similar "problems", though I'm convinced that the energy yield is high enough to sustain much more diligent care. I haven't seen similar numbers for coal.

The climate effects are coming, certainly, but they're much less predictable. We could have a decade or two of perfectly normal weather before the next "climate flicker". And that one could be disastrous in itself.

I think the "oh, shit!" moment will happen when enough people realize that our philosophy of civilization-building lacks principles for planning, stability (sustainability), and what some would call "well-formedness". Most of our energy and climate problems -- in fact, most of our problems, period -- come from mindsets that are based on quick profit, consequence-free action, and seeing what we want to see. At this point in the experience of humankind, those blind spots are lethal.

--p!

[NNadir]

5. The transition to coal is what we all must fight against.

It is time to phase out all fossil fuels, all of them, coal, oil, natural gas. They are unacceptably dangerous.

We should phase them out in order of their external cost: First coal, second oil, third natural gas, to the extent they are all available.

The occurrence of the "peak" oil phenomena, which is now only 1498 days, 3 hours, 27 minutes, and 34 seconds away would be an excellent opportunity to do this.

But coal is not the answer.

[Boomer]

6. Not a good answer, perhaps, but the answer we'll get

The arguments against coal -- all sound and valid -- will not dissuade humans from using it anyway.

If it's handy, and we need it, we grab. Consequences be damned.

[NNadir]

7. I think you're right, but I, for one, will not accept it quietly.

I believe I'm screaming as loudly as I can about the subject.

The only hope we have that we can stop it of course, is if enough people scream loudly enough about the subject.

Fossil fuels are not necessary. They are easy - lazy really - but not necessary. It is better for everyone if we do the more challenging thing.