Tropical Depression 8

[skids]

That was quick. They didn't even wait for it to get into the main satellite's cone.

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED
FROM AFRICA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS
FORMED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. TWO REPORTS OF
NORTHERLY 19 KT AND SOUTHERLY 10 KT WINDS...FROM SHIPS WITH CALL
SIGNS PBCJ AND UCAB RESPECTIVELY...CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT. PRESENTLY THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR AND IT
SHOULD BE TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 28C.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
40W-45W NORTH OF 15N AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS
FEATURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT PRESUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE
ABLE TO EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. THIS OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/16. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY EASTERLY FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD....THERE ARE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION
AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS. THE U.K. MET OFFICE
AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF
50W...WHEREAS THE GFS FORECASTS LESS OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
NEAR 50W AND TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 0600 UTC GFDL RUN.

THIS MORNING...DROPSONDES ARE BEING LAUNCHED FROM A DC-8 AIRCRAFT IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM AS PART OF THE AFRICAN MONSOON
MULTIDISCIPLINARY ANALYSIS PROJECT...AMMA. THESE SOUNDING DATA ARE
BEING INCORPORATED INTO THE GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM
AND...HOPEFULLY...INTO THE GLOBAL MODELS TO IMPROVE THE
INITIALIZATION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/121431.shtml


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0806W5_sm2+gif/144924W_sm.gif

[bluerum]

1. They are coming one after the other now. Seems like a new

one every morning with the warming sun.

[Warpy]

2. yeah, been watching that one for a couple of days

Most of what's come off the coast has washed out as soon as it's hit water, the opposite of what usually happens. This one has stayed together. So did Frances.

One front after another has kept that band of rain above the equator pretty much in the same spot, east to west. Some of the storms have re formed off the west coast of Mexico, and the Pacific hurricane season has been active.

[skids]

4. Yeah that loopy jet stream was something else...

...last week, scooping stuff right off the top of the Cape Verde islands and up to Europe. Not that I've been watching long enough to say that was weird with any authority, but it sure was something I hadn't seen before.

Sheer seems way down south of the two named storms. It might be that the season is about to make up lost ground.

[longship]

3. The Atlantic storm machine is beginning to really crank up.

If conditions are becoming more favorable for storm generation we could yet be in for quite a ride this season.

TP Eight has a worrisome track.

[jpak]

5. Last Sunday was the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season

Looks like Mother Nature is making up for lost time...

[phantom power]

6. I've been thinking...

although this season is now unlikely to stack up to last year, one thing is still like last year: the ocean temps are high, and they will probably stay unusually high very late in the season. We had an inactive first half, but we could still see a storm season that lasts into december or January.

Or, not. My 8-ball is broken.

[skids]

7. I think a lot of people have broken 8-balls these days...

...but your general idea isn't so far fetched. We know Autumn is being pushed back by a week or two -- why wouldn't hurricane season be as well?

[jpak]

8. I've been keeping track of buoy temps in the northern Gulf of Mexico

In July, they were 87-89 degrees.

Today they are 83-86 degrees F (most reports now ~84-85) and dropping.

Still enough juice to support a hurricane, but the temps are trending down off their seasonal highs.

The autumnal Equinox is coming soon and nights will soon be longer than days (which should further cool SSTs).

Also, several weak cold fronts have dropped into the Gulf recently - and they can keep on a'comin' as far as I'm concerned...

[phantom power]

9. It certainly looks like 2006 will be Katrina-free, at least.

This year is surely an object lesson that even record-high SST is not a guarantee of a bad storm season.

[jpak]

10. Until November 30th comes around - I ain't letting my guard down.

Hurricane Opal nailed the Gulf Coast on October 4, 1995...

[skids]

11. Now named... Helene.

And it looks to be shaping up to be a sizeable one.