Is peak oil happening now??

[4dsc]

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/12/3/23028/8015#more

Resolved: World Net Oil Export Capacity is Now Declining Because of Involuntary Reductions in Production and/or Because of Increases in Domestic Consumption in Major Oil Exporting Countries

Could be!!

[don954]

1. um, i thought that was a forgone conclusion?

when the Saudis said their oil had peeked, i was under the impression that it was all down hill after that...

[phantom power]

2. The Saudis admitted that officially?

I personally think we're riding the peak right about now. But to my knowledge, no oil exporting country has actually stepped up and admitted their supplies are peaking. (Not that I'm the fount of all wisdom)

[don954]

4. the former king did so on his deathbed if i recall correctly

but his son has since then repudiated it saying he has tons of unexplored oil under his land.. ya right...

[hatrack]

9. Kuwait admitted in November 2005 that Burgan had peaked . . .

Pemex announced early this year that Cantarell would enter decline in 2006, and further confirmed that they were looking for a decline rate of 14%/year (which is really fast, btw).

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=38454

It's worth noting that these are individual fields, not necessarily indicative of total conventional oil output for the nations which own them. However, it's also worth noting that Burgan (EUR +/- 85 billion barrels) and Cantarell (EUR +/- 20 billion barrels) are the second- and third- largest fields in the world, behind only Ghawar at 87 billion barrels EUR.

Furthermore, China has announced that Daqing, their largest single field and (depending on whether you're viewing overall OOIP or current production) the fourth-largest field in the world is also in decline.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-03/24/content_317672.htm

So, three of the top fields in the world are past peak, and doubts are circling Ghawar and the Saudi pronouncements as vultures circle a carcass, so we'll see what happens next.

Here, as well, is a listing of the world's largest oil fields in descending order of size - many of these are long past peak.

http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html#worldfields

[phantom power]

10. 14% a year is a free-fall.

[hatrack]

11. I never thought I'd feel sorry for Calderon

I'd feel sorry for anyone who "won" that election.

[lapfog_1]

3. It's always been hard to recognize the peak until you are past it.

Hopefully, many will be looking for the signs this time... and,yes, I think we've hit peak oil already.

Don't expect to ever see $30/barrel oil again in our lifetimes.

[EVDebs]

5. Please read Plan B 2.0 Yes, indeed, peak oil is happening NOW

www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB2/Contents.htm

The part on Learning From China

http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB2/PB2ch1_ss3.htm

tells us we've got until 2031 and then it's all downhill from there.

[NNadir]

6. Wow, thank goodness that's over.

It would be really, really, really terrible if we found more oil. We can't even get rid of the oil we've already dumped into the atmosphere.

[4dsc]

7. You;re almost funny

They find oil all the time and many new fields are coming on line in the upcoming years. The problem remains, these new fields will not be able
to replace the amount of oil or keep up with the depletion rates of the existing older fields..

[NNadir]

8. I'm not amused.

I find the panic about oil obscene. It is a filthy and dangerous fuel and should be banned, not because it is getting in short supply, but because it's, well, filthy and dangerous.

The poorly thought out constant screaming "We're all going to die with oil!" is of course not very helpful, since it makes people believe that they have to have oil, so much so that they are willing to commit murder and a whole bunch of other crimes to get it.

We may die without oil, but we don't have to do so.

I'm very serious when I advocate banning oil, and what's more I know it can be done. I think oil exploration should be banned and I am decidedly not happy that "they" find oil all the time.

[GliderGuider]

12. It all depends which numbers you look at.

If you look at "all liquids", the jury is still out. The problem with that is that "all liquids" includes things like syncrude, refinery gains and ethanol. If you look at Crude + Condensate, which is basically what comes out of oil wells, we've been in decline for 18 months now. Here are three simple graphs I made up from EIA's C+C numbers. The story is clear.







The world is still producing more hydrocarbons overall, of various types and from various sources, though the trend is flattening out as the underlying foundation of C+C falls off. The $64,000 question is, to what extent is the C+C decline geological (involuntary) and to what extent is is geopolitical (voluntary)? We won't know for sure for another year or two, but events in 2007 promise to hold wide-eyed fascination for the Peak Oil aware.