I need help debating a global warming denialist on another forum.

[Odin2005]

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&postid=4700932#post4700932

Park Avenue: Climate models have no predictive skill.

Me: That's a baldface lie

Park Avenue: Show me where forecasts have been made and subsequently shown to be significantly better than basic techniques (Hint: I said forecast).

Any good data I can use to rebut him?

[lvx35]

1. I wonder where we could find the chart from inconveniant truth.

all one has to do is show a correlation through time, like that chart did to be predictive with expected accuracy. We can't forecast the future weather, we can only forecast the average temperature increase over this long amount of time, as predicted by the chart correlating global tempuratures with carbon levels in the atmosphere.

[bananas]

2. Maybe you should know your facts before calling someone a liar. nt

[Lautremont]

3. He might be right about the models,

but if he is it's because the models are based on what's happened throughout history, and the whole basis of the global warming theory is that, as it's manmade, it's never happened before. So how could a model predict anything?

It's a pretty broad statement, but I think a case could be made that he's arguing against his global warming denial by pointing out the deficiencies in the models.

I also agree that it's best to have your arrows ready in the quiver before making such a direct challenge, even if it's to an obvious maroon.

[sandnsea]

4. UK Unified Model

This site says the UK Unified Model is the model used to predict UK weather.

http://climateprediction.net/science/model-intro.php

I don't know if this is what you're looking for, I still look out the window to predict the weather.

[GliderGuider]

5. Takea look at the articles on RealClimate.org

Start with this one:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/is-climate-modelling-science/

RealClimate is one of the best sites on there on climate change issues. The answer to you debater's challenge is "Yes and no."

[Odin2005]

6. Thanks! n/t

[arenean]

7. Try this publication

I think all the info you need on climate models, and how you can use the info to challenge the sceptics can be found in this pdf from the Institute of Physics (it's certainly the best I've seen)......

http://www.iop.org/Our_Activities/Science_Policy/Publications/file_4147.pdf