Is Peak Oil Pessimism a Generation of Men Coming to Realise How Useless They Are?

[4dsc]

Skill's??? What skill's... We don't need no stinking skill's..

In this post I want to discuss an evolving theory I have which may illuminate some and enrage others. I have come to think that part of the reason behind the “die-off” perspective and the mind-set which thinks that Western civilisation is doomed because humanity is basically selfish and foolish, and that it is too late for humanity to do anything on the necessary scale is in fact that a generation of men are coming to realise on some level that they are almost entirely unequipped to face the challenge that peak oil creates.

One of the main impacts of the Age of Cheap Oil, the great Petroleum Party so rapidly drawing to a close, has been the monumental deskilling that has gone on during that time. A friend of mine recently told me of a friend of his 14 year old son, who had grown up eating sliced bread, and was unable to actually cut a slice of bread from a loaf! How many people now know how to cook, garden, build, repair, mend, pickle, prune or scythe? In the space of two generations, we have lost so much basic knowledge and skills that previous generations learnt by osmosis without even thinking about it.


http://transitionculture.org/2006/12/04/is-peak-oil-pessimism-a-generation-of-men-coming-to-realise-how-useless-they-are/

[phantom power]

1. Sounds similar to that "collapse gap" presentation.

That Russian fellow's theory seemed to be that the soviets were better equipped for an economic collapse because their macro-economy had never been so hot to begin with. People were already fairly self-reliant, and engaged in local barter economies, before the collapse.

[phantom power]

2. And by the way, is he saying that...

after civilization crumbles, I won't be able to make a living as a traveling C++ programmer? With villagers begging me to take their sons and daughters as apprentices in the object oriented programming trade guild?

[bloom]

3. "Skill's??? What skill's... We don't need no stinking skill's.. "

I've been thinking that we are lucky that there are people like the Amish who do know a lot of those skills - and could teach others.


It is odd when you think about what so many people do for a living - and with most of their time (such as anything having to do with computers) - that has no relation to actually being able to survive such as knowing how to garden and put up food.

It amazes me when people don't want to know how to cook.

I'm glad to live in an area where a lot of people are interested in organic gardening and sustainable living practices.

[greenman3610]

4. unless that garden produces one hell of a lot of produce

it's not going to help very much.

All this talk about going back to 5 acres and a mule is
bullshit. I've been reading Mother Earth News on and
off for 30 years, and this has been their bread and
butter for a lot of that time.
Of course, given a nuclear exchange, they might
be right at last, but obviously that hasn't happened,
and I'm not sure that any planning is adequate to
that event if it does happen.

The peak oil thing is important as part of the
puzzle, but people make a mistake by trending
certain things out to infinity and assuming that
the society and the economy will not make adjustments
as things develop.

-Oil magnates will trend out energy demand to make the
argument they have to drill in ANWR.
-Survivalist greens trend out the same lines to
argue that we should all head for the hills.

It wasn't true in the 70s and it's not true now.
This is because the economy is far more resilient
and the potential for energy conservation so
much deeper than most people appreciate.

Warming will happen, and we will see dislocations,
but what's going on in the areas of alternative energy/energy
conservation field
is well ahead of most long term projections.

[donsu]

5. single vegetable gardens DO produce alot of food

and it's a very good suggestion for everyone to be skilled at more then one or two things.

[bloom]

6. I think the people who figured out

how to be self-sufficient and live off the grid were ahead of their time.

Them and the "new-urbanists" who are able to live without cars.


Of course most Americans prefer to live in denial and consume as much stuff (most of which is made by people who are essentially slaves) as they can. I don't see any virtue or wisdom in that. Some may think it's smart to exploit people and waste resources. It's certainly not smart in the long run.

[NNadir]

10. Alternative energy is ahead of projections?

Maybe you didn't read the projections. I'm quite sure that Mother Earth News was not talking about the numbers we see today thirty years ago. What percentage of the world's energy resources, exactly do you think "alternative energy" is providing?

I'm not a big fan of the "peak oil will kill us" fantasy, but then too, I'm not a big fan of the "alternative energy will save us" fantasy either.

One is hysterical, the other complacent. There is a danger, and it requires action, sober and frankly difficult action.

[applegrove]

7. I always said my grandmother would be the only one in our family to

survive a nuclear or volcanic event. She could do all that. And more.

[Porcupine]

8. Ah yes, the unemployable skillset.

Knowing such things is almost useless in todays job market. However the ability to stand there and yack endlessly is worth a fortune(sales).

I'm really good at such things. They are just about useless becaus they do not constitute "marketable" skills. So life is a miserable struggle for me.

I truly hate "modern" civilization. Even this computer is little more than a thin substitute for the social graces our culture forgot.

[GliderGuider]

9. Here's a very good response to that article.

Speaking as a doomer, I have admit I like this rebuttal. I thought both the tone and content of both of the referenced articles was facile and unhelpful. But hey, maybe that was just the sound of my own ox being gored. :shrug:

Everybody is a shrink at heart, and we have seen it on the pages of Energy Bulletin lately. The powerdowners are working like sixty to figure out why we “doomers” are so damn stubborn and won’t sign up for their permaculture classes. I refer to the recent articles by Rob Hopkins from Transition Culture and Toby Hemenway , both of whom dig deep into the soul of our doomer gloom. In this essay I would like to change the debate a bit, shift it from reasons for believing, in a collapse, to reasons for preparing for a collapse.

A quick review of the reasons for believing in Peak Oil is in order, though. The first reason given is that all of us doomers are, well, gloomy – we sit in our rooms and brood, counting backwards from our secret Last Judgement day. This does not fit the peakniks I know who believe in a crash (two do sketch comedy!), but perhaps there is another explanation. Rob Hopkins says it is because we feel useless – we are a generation of men who have no practical skills, ergo we believe in doomsday. I do not understand the gender difference, nor do I understand the segue. It is just as reasonable to say that men in the last fifty years have become largely urban dwellers, or have multiple jobs during their work careers, and therefore they believe in doomsday. It is a correlation, not causation, and a fairly questionable correlation at that.

Toby Hemenway on the other hand would have us believe that we are doomers because we are steeped in a Judeo-Christian-medieval-scientific apocalyptic tradition. What about those who are from Western Europe and do not believe in doomsday like (I suppose), Toby himself? Are they immune, smarter, or just more rational? And what of the people in India and Japan who believe in a collapse? Do they too have apocalyptic traditions? Interestingly, Hemenway seems to want to use his extensive (and, ultimately, rather tedious) list of collapses-not-come-to-pass to convince us that it never will, an argument I think we are all familiar with: surprise, it is that same old faulty logic of economists who ridicule past predictions of an oil peak. Read your mutual fund prospectuses: past trends do not guarantee similar future results, as those of us who have General Motors stock may know.

We could debate why doomers believe in a collapse and powerdowners do not, but while it is obviously an interesting debate (Rob’s blog has eighty-eight comments), it does not seem terribly useful. A better debate, and incidentally one I think is more rational anyway, revolves around reasons for preparing for a crash, whether you believe one will occur or not. Here I will trundle out a tired metaphor, but one which I think best represents the case. Without trying to offend anyone, I would bet that both Rob and Toby have homeowner’s insurance on their houses (if they do not rent – in that case the bet is that their landlords have it), and I would bet further that neither Rob nor Toby would exchange that insurance for a fire extinguisher or two.

Homeowner’s Insurance and Fire Extinguishers