Study finds enough electric capacity to "fill up" plug-in vehicles across much of the nation

[Kolesar]

This is a press release of a publicly-funded study. Hence it is public domain

Release date: December 11, 2006
Contact: Susan Bauer, [phone]

Mileage from megawatts: Study finds enough electric capacity to "fill up" plug-in vehicles across much of the nation

RICHLAND, Wash. – If all the cars and light trucks in the nation switched from oil to electrons, idle capacity in the existing electric power system could generate most of the electricity consumed by plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. A new study for the Department of Energy finds that "off-peak" electricity production and transmission capacity could fuel 84 percent of the country's 220 million vehicles if they were plug-in hybrid electrics.

Researchers at DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory also evaluated the impact of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, on foreign oil imports, the environment, electric utilities and the consumer.

"This is the first review of what the impacts would be of very high market penetrations of PHEVs, said Eric Lightner, of DOE's Office of Electric Delivery and Energy Reliability. "It's important to have this baseline knowledge as consumers are looking for more efficient vehicles, automakers are evaluating the market for PHEVs and battery manufacturers are working to improve battery life and performance."

Current batteries for these cars can easily store the energy for driving the national average commute - about 33 miles round trip a day, so the study presumes that drivers would charge up overnight when demand for electricity is much lower.

Researchers found, in the Midwest and East, there is sufficient off-peak generation, transmission and distribution capacity to provide for all of today's vehicles if they ran on batteries. However, in the West, and specifically the Pacific Northwest, there is limited extra electricity because of the large amount of hydroelectric generation that is already heavily utilized. Since more rain and snow can't be ordered, it's difficult to increase electricity production from the hydroelectric plants.

"We were very conservative in looking at the idle capacity of power generation assets," said PNNL scientist Michael Kintner-Meyer. "The estimates didn't include hydro, renewables or nuclear plants. It also didn't include plants designed to meet peak demand because they don't operate continuously. We still found that across the country 84 percent of the additional electricity demand created by PHEVs could be met by idle generation capacity."

"Since gasoline consumption accounts for 73 percent of imported oil, it is intriguing to think of the trade and national security benefits if our vehicles switched from oil to electrons," added PNNL energy researcher Rob Pratt. "Plus, since the utilities would be selling more electricity without having to build more plants or power lines, electricity prices could go down for everyone."

Lightner noted that "the study suggests the idle capacity of the electric power grid is an underutilized national asset that could be tapped to vastly reduce our dependence on foreign oil."

The study also looked at the impact on the environment of an all-out move to PHEVs. The added electricity would come from a combination of coal-fired and natural gas-fired plants. Even with today's power plants emitting greenhouse gases, the overall levels would be reduced because the entire process of moving a car one mile is more efficient using electricity than producing gasoline and burning it in a car's engine.

Total sulfur dioxide emissions would increase in the near term due to sulfur content in coal. However, urban air quality would actually improve since the pollutants are emitted from power plants that are generally located outside cities. In the long run, according to the report, the steady demand for electricity is likely to result in investments in much cleaner power plants, even if coal remains the dominant fuel for our electricity production.

"With cars charging overnight, the utilities would get a new market for their product. PHEVs would increase residential consumption of electricity by about 30 - 40 percent. The increased generation could lead to replacing aging coal-fired plants sooner with newer, more environmentally friendly versions," said Kintner-Meyer.

"The potential for lowering greenhouse gases further is quite substantial because it is far less expensive to capture emissions at the smokestack than the tailpipe. Vehicles are one of the most intractable problems facing policymakers seeking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions," said Pratt.

Finally, the study looked at the economic impact on consumers. Since, PHEVs are expected to cost about $6,000 to $10,000 more than existing vehicles - mostly due to the cost of batteries -- researchers evaluated how long it might take owners to break even on fuel costs. Depending on the price of gas and the cost of electricity, estimates range from five to eight years - about the current lifespan of a battery. Pratt notes that utilities could offer a lower price per kilowatt hour on off-peak power, making PHEVs even more attractive to consumers.

Adding "smart grid" communications technology to ensure the vehicles only charge during off-peak periods and to provide immediate, remote disconnect of chargers in event of problems in the power grid would make them attractive to utilities.

PNNL is a DOE Office of Science laboratory that solves complex problems in energy, national security, the environment and life sciences by advancing the understanding of physics, chemistry, biology and computation. PNNL employs 4,300 staff, has a $750 million annual budget, and has been managed by Ohio-based Battelle since the lab's inception in 1965.

--o--

My impressions are that motorists of means will buy PHEVs and the rest of
us will buy EVs to support a realistic lifestyle of commuting to work and
shopping. As for the 25% in Detroit or New Orleans who cannot afford
automobiles--well bless them. Disabled folks won't do so well, either.

The electricity infrastructure is already in place. I already knew that nobody
was not going to be busting up my street to put in hydrogen gas lines.

I lament that this motoring future does not have a built-in incentive of leading
us to transit-oriented-design of cities. I do like that such a "scheme" takes a
huge amount of pressure off of the world's petroleum supply. Taking
petro-political power away from the powers-that-be can only be a good thing.

[Sherman A1]

1. This is all well and good

and I am a huge fan of getting away from internal combustion engines. We here in Missouri & Illinois (St. Louis area) have had two major electric power interruptions lasting in some cases over a week in 2006, so I believe that there is more to be considered on the supply side (like a reliable infrastructure) in many areas of the country before we starting plugging in our cars at night to recharge.

[Kolesar]

2. That is a different issue, though...eom

[Sherman A1]

4. Yes, it is a different issue...

however, if the consumer does not have a reliable source of electric from whatever source, coal, nuclear, solar, wind, hamsters running in a cage the changes in vehicle powerplants are a moot point.

[LSK]

16. so why cant a company make a solar power station for homes?

Something that fuels a battery during the day and the battery "drains" into the car during the night?

Or how about having portable solar chargers with cars for during the day?

There are alternatives.

[GliderGuider]

19. Not enough power.

I found a reference that current solar panels put out about 150 kWh per square meter per year. That figure was for Sydney, Australia, which means that most people will get less than that. Compare that to how much power an electric car needs: 0.4 kWh per mile. That means that with a year of charging off a square meter panel, you'll get 375 miles of driving - about one mile per day.

Technology will improve solar panel efficiency to some extent, and we will build some ultra-light EVs which will use less power than that, but realistically solar flux is too low density to be an effective solution for general transportation.

[Throckmorton]

37. 1 Square meter is not that large an area.

It is just under 11 Square feet. My 1500 Square Foot house has about 75 Square meters of southwest facing roof space, and another 75 square meters facing Northeast, yielding about 50 miles per day for our area, New England.

It is not the size of the arrays stopping Solar Power's use, it is the $4.00 to $5.00 per watt of installed capacity that is stopping people.

[Kolesar]

39. If someone buys an ostentatious car on a notion, why not a conspicuous solar generating array?

[markam]

3. I see many problems

Instead of running the system at capacity for a few hours during the summer, we would run it at capacity 24/7? That won't happen.

I love the idea of the automatic disconnect, however, I forsee many people running an extension cord to bypass the charger connect so that THEY get their charge.

[greenman3610]

7. Large Power Plants don't shut down at night

that's the point of the study.
People charging at night will be utilizing coal/nuclear/hydro
power that is currently just wasted as "spinning reserve".

This is a vast increase in efficiency, and would
displace huge amounts of fossil fuel.

[markam]

11. no they don't

A substantial amount of the generating capacity in this country is for peak generation purposes and is typically natural gas powered turbine power. It cannot be used as baseload capacity. I am quite sure that this study looked at nameplate capacity to determine that there is sufficient generation capacity.

We cannot significantly increase our use of fossil fuels to power our transportation system. Even allowing for the increased efficiency of electric vehicles, you would be looking at at least a 50% increase in electricity consumption. The only possible source for that type of increase would be nuclear. If starting in 2007, we were to bring about 20 nuclear power plants online every year, I would say that we have a possibility of switching to electric vehicles. What are the chances of that happening?

[greenman3610]

26. not sure I understand your point

true many plants are "peaking plants", usually gas turbines.
Major baseload plants, mostly coal, some nuclear and hydro, are not
turned on and off nightly. Hence, an alternative use for that
wasted reserve would be substituting heretofore unused
power for gasoline.
seems like a good idea to me.

[Throckmorton]

38. Make that All USA Nuclear Plants are Base Load Plants.

I do not know of a single Nuclear Unit in the USA that runs as a peaker.

[Warren Stupidity]

5. I just am wondering

a) who am I going to have to fight to get the last socket at work so I can fill up for the ride home?

b) will companies ignore electricity theft as folks start running lines out of their offices to recharge their cars?

c) public metered charging stations in place of parking meters? (Now that might actually work!)

[all.of.me]

6. my thought was...

... that on the outside of all buildings there would be electric plugs, like the place to tie your horse in the old west. that was as far as i got with that one, but i love the parking meter idea!

[LSK]

17. why would you "plug in" at work???

Wouldnt the cars have a capacity to get you home???

Do you drive 100 miles one way to work???

[IDemo]

8. They left out Vehicle-to-Grid (VTG) technology

Electric Drive Vehicles as Distributed Power Generation Systems

As cars and light trucks begin a transition to electric propulsion, powered by batteries, engines, or fuel cells, there is potential for a synergistic connection between such vehicles and the electric power grid. The aggregate power rating of the US vehicle fleet is much larger than the total US generating capacity. If even a small fraction of vehicles could be harnessed as generating assets, benefits would accrue both to the electric power grid and to the vehicle owners. The potential exists for the economic value generated to significantly offset the costs of electric, hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles.

Background

US passenger vehicles are, on average, parked and idle for about 23 hours each day. During this time, they create no value for the user, and there is an associated cost because they need to be stored or­ parked­ while not in use. With the advent of electric, hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles, there is the prospect that idle vehicles can become assets that create value to their owners while parked. By connecting such vehicles to the electric power grid, a large scale, dispatchable electric power generating resource is created.

By itself, each vehicle is small in its impact on the power system. But a large number vehicles have, in aggregate, very significant generating capacity. For example, five percent of California's vehicle fleet could provide 10 percent of the state's peak power requirement. The vehicles would be widely distributed, but they would be located where people are, which to a significant degree is where the power demand is.

The geographically-dispersed capacity could be controlled remotely to provide power when and where it is needed.

more -->> http://www.acpropulsion.com/Veh_Grid_Power/Veh_grid_power.htm

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Google "vehicle to grid"-->> http://www.google.com/search?q=vehicle%20to%20grid&sourceid=groowe&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

[GliderGuider]

9. Take a step back and expand your horizons

Say you make it work. You solve all the technical and economic issues, and North America goes electric. Cool.

What happens to the 73% of imported oil the USA no longer needs? Does it sit idle in Saudi Arabia's storage tanks? Does it stay underground? Not a chance. What happens is the price of oil drops to $50 and China breaths a huge sigh of relief as they sign checks to buy it all up to fuel their 10% annual industrial growth.

This strategy may have local advantages in terms of American energy security, but given the global scale of the various problems (particularly demographics, global warming and declining per-capita food production) the overall benefit may be marginal. It will certainly not slow the "race to the edge" that mankind is currently running. Instead, it will speed it up as it enables more global industrialization and economic growth, which is the problem rather than the solution.

[Kolesar]

10. We will still need earnest urban and energy planning

...and food planning. This is going to take a huge amount of outreach and courage.

[Ready4Change]

12. You touch on the Big Oil Companys nightmares.

I have become convinced there are viable alternatives to fossil fuel powered transportation, and that fully implementing them would be a boon to our environment. The only barrier is the comparatively low up front cost of fossil fuels.

To my mind that's the major reason oil prices dropped from the recent highs. The industry saw the momentum that was given to alternatives from that seemingly short lived blip of high prices.

The nightmare of the Big Oil Companies is that the world will adopt alternative energy sources while there is still recoverable oil, coal and NG in the ground. Particularly with nations like China and India just starting to drink oil in industrial quantities. Big Oil has been dreaming of the last dying gasp of oil and the grotesque prices they would be able to demand.

However, for example, say the USA starts buying a wave of electric vehicles. Consider that just about ANY car nowadays is an internation effort and you'll realize much of that car may be built in China, Korea or Japan. Since they are building them anyway, it makes sense THEY'D start using them too. (More sense for them, actually, as I'd guess their commute distances are shorter.) Pretty soon you have decreased oil demand and increased demand for public power untilities. Black gold suddenly becomes poisonous gunk best left underground and Big Oil needs to find another career.

Or, at least, so I can dream.

[GliderGuider]

14. I have a different view of Big Oil and the part they're playing in all this.

First, I think Big Oil is as much a victim of the current energy situation as consumers. I emphatically don't think they have much ability to influence, let alone set, set world oil prices. The market is too big, too fragmented, with too many players with competing interests. IMO the rise and fall of oil prices is driven by pure supply and demand, modified by whatever geological, economic and geopolitical factors are broadly accepted by the market traders. When prices fall, as they did in the late 1960s and late 1990s, oil companies get a haircut. When they rise like they are doing now, they make hefty profits, at least in absolute dollar terms. If they were truly able to control the global price structure there would be no lean years for them, and there have been.

Incidentally, XOM's profit margin is around 10% - below the 11% average of the S&P 500. I have a lot of problems with how XOM is trying to manipulate issues like global warming and the economic growth imperative, but I don't think their profits demonstrate anything nefarious in and of themselves. They are a big player in a big industry, and their cashflow is the result of simple arithmetic.

The market position of alternatives is one of the factors the traders take into account, but frankly it's just not a very big one. In the global market for transportation fuel, alternatives play a minuscule role - about 1% last year according to Worldwatch Institute. The potential impact of conservation driven by rising prices is a much larger consideration.

Big Oil doesn't need to worry about alternatives cutting into their sales, because as I posted above the alternatives will add to, not replace fossil fuel use. We may adopt alternatives, even in large quantities, but we will still burn all the oil we can pump - and that means we will burn all the oil. My position is that producing waves of electric cars will do nothing whatsoever to dampen the demand for oil. At most it will shift the patterns of consumption, with some countries and economic sectors using a bit more and others a bit less. IMO nothing will slow the use of oil. Prices may rise to insane levels but there will always be buyers, and the reason for that is that the price is now being set by the demand side of the equation. The people who want to use oil are the ones who are volunteering to pay whatever it takes to secure a supply.

One change we will see (actually we are already seeing) is a shift from a pure free market in oil to a resurgence of mercantilism. Countries like China are desperate to lock down assured supples through the use of long term contracts. This approach will raise the price of oil left on the free market, as supplies will be sequestered under contract.

Another change we will see is a wave of nationalization of oil industries. This will be driven by the desire to preferentially supply domestic demand ahead of export demand. As a country's oil production begins to decline, at the same time its internal consumption continues to rise. This will put increasing pressure on the country's government to assure oil supplies for its own citizens. As more and more countries fall victim to this scenario, we will see global exports decline faster than the actual rate of production. This bodes ill for importing countries like the USA, and is one of the main reasons you will need to move to alternatives like electric cars, biofuels, conservation and military takeovers of oil producing nations...

[Kolesar]

29. I have this suspicion that oil producers like the Saudis own much of Exxon, BP, Shell, et al

I cannot prove it. I would expect that they would hide their ownership through tiered holding corporations.

As for reducing the use of oil: I am sure that these electric cars would reduce the demand on oil and reduce the price. Ultimately, the price would come up though. Comprehensive carbon taxes may be the solution to reducing oil use. By that I mean huge gasoline taxes.

[GliderGuider]

30. Huge gasoline taxes

Electric cars are a chimera of a saviour. Their widespread adoption will result in more oil becoming available at lower prices for other sectors of the economy. Of course, to prevent those sectors from taking advantage of that convenience, countries can introduce hefty oil or carbon taxes. But, what if one country like China or the USA decides not to go along with the taxation idea? They outbid the good citizens of the world for the oil, fuel their cars and industries with it and keep their economy growing while the rest of us stagnate.

I'm sorry to be beating Cassandra's drum here, but the problem is global. Local, regional and national solutions have to be understood purely in terms of the benefit they offer to those regions. The global nature of the problem and the sovereignty of nations however means that any counry that wants to can opt out, and simply refuse to levy such a tax. I believe that any nation that thinks it's in their interest to opt out of a carbon tax will do so. The result is that few nations will sign up, because they don't want some other nation to be the one to opt out and thereby gain a strategic advantage.

I have yet to see a convincing argument why this would not happen, or a convincing strategy to prevent it.

[4dsc]

13. Too little too late

Inasmuch as these new hybrids are the next best thing to sliced bread, they will have little or no effect on the coming peak oil situation.. And when the worlds' production of oil start's dropping forever, oil of course will get more expensive.. The more expensive the oil, the more expensive these hydrid's and everything else gets..

Also, any transition over to these hybrid's will take DECADES!!! Time we simple don't have! The time for hybrid's was 20 years ago but we didn't have the technology..

[kestrel91316]

15. I can envision a future where I own a tiny little EV for local daily use, and

then when I need to go serious distances, RENT a PHEV sedan. Or if I have some property and need to do some hauling, rent a PHEV truck.

It could work. We need to keep thinking outside the box.

And rather than using grid power to charge up, I could have a home solar/micro-wind/battery setup for charging at night.

A girl can dream..........

Oh, and I want my little humble house to have a geothermal heat pump for heating and cooling, assisted by a wood-burning stove for supplemental heat. (really dreaming now....)

[LSK]

18. I agree

My commute to work is less than 10 miles. I do not need a gas powered car for that. Even if someones commute is 50 miles, cant electric cars make over 100 miles on a charge nowadays?

[GliderGuider]

20. A good idea I've seen recently is a different kind of plug-in hybrid

It runs off the battery exclusively until the battery is drained, then switches over to a liquid-fueled engine. This permits all short trips to be done on pure battery power, but without limiting the range of the vehicle. It might even be simpler to implement than a traditional hybrid like the Prius.

[Ready4Change]

21. A couple variations on that idea

There's an electric car that was floated a year or two ago called the T-Zero. It was similar to the Tesla in that it was performance oriented pure EV. But a neat thing it had was a trailer it could tow, which was a portable gasoline powered generator used to charge the batteries as you drove on long highway trips. What I liked about that was that, if the prevelant type of available fuel changes all you'd need would be a new trailer, rather than a whole new car.

Another varient is a mostly pure EV, but with a modular generator pack that acted like the T-Zeros trailer. Being modular, you could swap it for a different unit if fuel availability changes.

With either of these, you've got a potential route whether the post gasoline fuel is propane, NG, Ethanol, biodiesel, hydrogen fuel cells, etc... Just swap the generator unit.

[Strelnikov_]

28. I Agree. If There Is A Future PV, EV's With Generator Trailers For Long Trips

will probably be a significant part.

One advantage of this arrangement are that the generator only needs to provide 'baseline' power for trips in excess of the battery storage capacity.

Also, the weight of the generator is only lugged around when needed.

As you say, modular.

[NNadir]

22. Of course, the big problem is that that "off peak" power is natural gas.

Note also that they are calling for new "clean" coal plants, even though there is no such thing as a "clean" coal plant.

Unless a brazillion people go out and buy solar cells and stay home each day from work to recharge their cars - or if we build another 100 or so nuclear plants, the environmental benefit may be dubious.

[Kolesar]

23. The off-peak power is baseload coal, and a bit of baseload natural gas

Natural gas is used as baseload power in states that have had growth in recent decades such as Florida and Colorado.

That Battelle report noted that the greenhouse gasses would be easier to control at the power plant than at (the automobile's) tail pipe. That's a bit weasily because we all know that there is no demonstrated CO2 sequestration technology.

[NNadir]

25. No, the coal runs the lights and 24/7 systems like refrigerators...

...unless one is blessed with nuclear plants.

The minute a lot of batteries being recharged, at least for the short term, the peak load (gas) equipment clicks in.

Ultimately the cars could be load leveling devices, but not immediately

[Kolesar]

27. There must be something in the middle between baseload and peak generation, then...

But still, this article says that it will not be peak generation for this charging scheme.

Researchers found, in the Midwest and East, there is sufficient off-peak generation, transmission and distribution capacity to provide for all of today's vehicles if they ran on batteries. However, in the West, and specifically the Pacific Northwest, there is limited extra electricity because of the large amount of hydroelectric generation that is already heavily utilized. Since more rain and snow can't be ordered, it's difficult to increase electricity production from the hydroelectric plants.

"We were very conservative in looking at the idle capacity of power generation assets," said PNNL scientist Michael Kintner-Meyer. "The estimates didn't include hydro, renewables or nuclear plants. It also didn't include plants designed to meet peak demand because they don't operate continuously. We still found that across the country 84 percent of the additional electricity demand created by PHEVs could be met by idle generation capacity."

...snip...

The study also looked at the impact on the environment of an all-out move to PHEVs. The added electricity would come from a combination of coal-fired and natural gas-fired plants.

[NNadir]

31. Part of this depends on how you define "spinning reserve."

"Spinning reserve" - about which I learned while researching the limits of wind power - is usually defined as the power that can address load changes that occur within 30 minutes. Typically most power grids generate more energy than they are actually using, in case for some reason one or more of their plants trips or goes off line.

Almost always this power is provided by gas, since it is relatively easy to start and stop a gas turbine type plant in periods of under an hour.

However if one thinks about the nature of most coal plants, one realizes that from a cold shutdown, one first has to bring a huge boiler to the boiling temperature - requiring an investment of both energy and time. Thus a coal plant is not "spinning reserve" unless it is operating continuously and the generated is being unused. This has some rather unhappy implications. There are some modern coal plants that are designed to get around this drawback by utilizing coal gasification. The somewhat fraudulently represented IGCC (Integrated gasification combined cycle) plant is a possible solution to this matter, but mostly these plants are fairly land type stuff, usually evoked in connection with equally unavailable "sequestration" schemes.

Note that the same situation as applies with coal applies with nuclear power with a few caveats. A nuclear power plant that is in cold shutdown cannot be brought back on line quickly if it has been operating at full power within a period of several hours. This is because of a nuclear physics effect to which I sometimes refer known as "xenon poisoning." This effect results from the fact that one fission product - xenon-135 - is a powerful neutron absorber. Xenon-135 is radioactive and has a relatively short half-life and is - like all fission products - subject to equilibrium during operations. However xenon-135 is actually the daughter of another nuclide - iodine-135 - that is also controlled by equilibrium. Nuclear power plants are designed to operate under the assumption of a certain concentration of xenon-135. When a reactor is shut down, the equilibrium value for the concentration of iodine-135 is shifted and for a short time the concentration of xenon-135 rises, preventing a fast restart. In fact an attempt by the operators to circumvent the implications of this effect lead directly to the accident at Chernobyl. Then too, if a nuclear power plant is operating as "spinning reserve" it is not really contributing all that much to pollution and the cost of fuel isn't involved all that much.

Here how most utilities according to my reading prioritize their power generation if they have many forms of energy available: They run their nuclear plants flat out without feathering them down. This is because - if you already have a nuclear plant - the fuel cost is trivial. Next the run their coal plants (wood would also go here), because they do not want to reinvest energy in reheating a cooled boiler. Next they run their gas capacity. If they have oil capacity - and few power companies actually use oil as a major source of energy - this is the lowest priority form of energy, since a diesel engine can be started in a matter of a few seconds and thus is always "spinning reserve." The situation with hydroelectricity varies depending on locale, weather, time of year etc. Hydroelectricity can always be considered "spinning reserve," however, since its operation calls simply for opening a valve - if a reservoir is suitably filled. Sometimes spinning reserve can be used to pump water back into a reservoir. This is an energy storage system known as "pumped storage." It's a pretty good way of storing energy, though not all that widely used. If one needs the power for changes in demand, one simply shuts the pump off.

Other forms of renewable energy can be considered as variable as hydroelectric.

Solar power - not that it is significant anywhere - is peak load power. This is its real strength. Grids incorporating solar capacity distributed over a wide area do not really need "spinning reserve" to back it up, since solar is predictable.

Wind power that is geographically centered in one giant wind farm does need "spinning reserve" since one doesn't really know how constantly the wind will blow. If wind plants are widely distributed over a grid, this effect is less profound, since the wind will likely be blowing somewhere.

In theory, if one were to couple systems that recharge batteries for cars to computers that measure what is available on the grid, one could make all forms of power "spinning reserve," even nuclear and coal - although, personally, I still oppose the use of any coal. In this case, the battery charger is "informed" of the grid status and generating demands. In periods of peak demand, the battery charger could "agree" to be turned off in order to meet immediate needs elsewhere on the grid. It could be turned back on when demand falls below generation. The owner of such a charger could either be induced to participate in such a scheme through regulation or cost advantages. Such a system would really enhance the prospects of wind power, addressing one of its huge limitations. In effect every car owner would be providing a battery for the power companies.

Probably at the end of the day, the most environmental solution however is simply to minimize the use and need for personal transportation, which automobiles all represent. The automobile is the "distributed energy" nightmare reified.

[amandabeech]

32. Do you have some cites as to the type of generation running

off peak and how much base load capacity (coal, nuke, hydro) is left after allowing for spinning reserve?

I'm aware that combined cycle gas turbines are used in some areas for base-load generation, but I haven't seen any good numbers on this.

If you have something, I'd love to look at it.

[NNadir]

33. To my knowledge, it's is recorded exactly. Historical loads for systems are available though.

You can choose your system and your date and find out about how the power requirements varied:

http://currentenergy.lbl.gov/ny/index.php

For instance you can find out that New York's total capacity is 38,000 MW and that on August 18, 2006 the base load was 16,000 MW at 5:00 am and peaked at 26,000 MW. In theory this means that there were 12,000 MW available to charge cars - until one realizes that the grid will fail if operated continuously at 100% capacity.

The amount of spinning reserve varies of course with the type of energy sources available and the time of year. An area that depends on natural gas will have very different requirements than an area dependent on nuclear or dependent on coal.

Areas that are dependent on wind power will have a very different requirement.

Here is an interesting study I posted at Kos by Estonians, who rejected wind power on the grounds that it might cause their Greenhouse gas emissions to go up or have no effect whatsoever.

http://www.wind-watch.org/documents/wp-content/uploads/liik-emissionsreduction.pdf

Of course Estonia is a small country, so geographical wind distribution is not really possible there. In any case, the Estonian authors seem to have done a very detailed analysis of their power situation and have looked carefully at the experience of Denmark. The discussion is technical, but clear enough in any case.

...A simplified two-step method for calculation of real fuel consumption and emissions under absence of dynamic input-output characteristics of thermal power plants is proposed in this paper. Estonian case study shows that the integration of considerable capacity of wind turbines would increase the fuel consumption and emissions of thermal stations about 8-10%, which will reduce the environmental effect of windmills substantially. There can be situations where probably no environmental gain can be achieved at all.

It is vitally important to continue the discussion about the ability of power systems to integrate large amounts of wind power and to develop further the methods for the calculation of emission reductions.

To show how energy situations can vary with location, it is interesting to note that Estonia's highest peaks are in winter, whereas in much of the US - because of air conditioning - the opposite is true.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are co-operating to build new nuclear capacity to replace Lithuania's RBMK (Chernobyl type) reactor.

[NNadir]

34. I made an error here. The title should read *not* recorded exactly.

n/t.

[amandabeech]

35. Thank you for the charts.

I had been lead to believe that there was considerably more difference between peak and off-peak demand--something like off-peak being 1/3 that of peak.

Those charts really put pluggable hybrids in a very different light.

I saw an article on one of the yahoo groups a couple of days ago analyzing availability of wind-generated energy for several sites on the Island of Great Britain. In summary, no wind farms south of the Scottish border exceeded the 30% availability mark. If you're interested, I'll see if I can find it.

[NNadir]

36. That would be interesting. n/t

[Kolesar]

24. Battery powered automobiles match up very well with time-variant wind power

An automobile is usually driven for an hour a day and idle for twenty three hours. If the automobile is on the grid-based charger from 7pm to 7am, and again for eight hours mid-day, it should be available to find the available wind power. Admittedly, a lot of America is becalmed in mid summer when those high-pressure systems set themselves on top of us and "the weather stops". Then, we would have to depend on coal fired electricity.

It has been blowing hard and steady for two days during this week in December where I am, though!