Chinese Photovoltaics

[jpak]

http://www.ecoworld.com/blog/2006/12/19/chinese-photovoltaics/

We’ve been trying for some time to find a good prediction of how quickly worldwide photovoltaic manufacturing is going to increase. We know in 2005 the entire world production of photovoltaic cells was about 1.6 gigawatts. How much will we add in 2006? Where will we be by 2010?

Because of the revolution in thin film photovoltaic technology, along with the predicted end to the bottleneck in polysilicon production which has limited manufacturing of crystaline photovoltaics, exponential growth in production is possible, if not likely.

Huge figures are being kicked around. Just some of the high profile thin-film photovoltaic manufacturers, Miasole, Nanosolar, First Solar, Daystar Technologies, and Unisolar, will themselves be adding another gigawatt to the world’s production within a few years. With the polysilicon shortage easing, leaders in crystaline manufacturing, such as SunPower, will probably also double their output in the next few years.

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An excellent website that tracks developments in photovoltaics is SolarPlaza.com, which has just published an article entitled “Solar Cells ‘Made in China’ Coming Our Way.” In this article, Zhang Cheng, as spokesperson for a consortium of Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers, makes an astonishing claim: In 2005, 12 manufacturers in China produced 150 megawatts of photovoltaic cells. In 2006, an estimated 30 manufacturers will produce 1,450 megawatts. This is just the beginning, and this is happening all over the world.

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[jpak]

1. More news: Sanyo Electric to Raise Cell Production Capacity to 350 Megawatts

http://www.solarbuzz.com/News/NewsASMA79.htm

SANYO Electric announced today that it will considerably expand the HIT solar photovoltaic cell production capacity at the Nishikinohama Plant (Osaka, Japan) and Shimane SANYO Electric Co., Ltd. (Shimane, Japan), in order to respond to the huge and growing demand for solar photovoltaic systems.

SANYO produces its HIT Solar Photovoltaic Cells at two major locations, Nishikinohama Plant and Shimane SANYO, with a total production capacity of 165 Megawatts at the present time. In Fiscal Year 2007, the company will invest approximately 9 billion Yen ($76 Million) in new production equipment at the Nishikinohama Plant, increasing cell production capacity at the plant from its current level of 115 MW to 210 Megawatts.

Therefore the total production capacity in Fiscal Year 2007, including that of Shimane SANYO, will increase to 260 Megawatts.

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[whistle]

2. "Compared to photovoltaics, there is probably nothing else on earth

...with more potential to change the global energy paradigm."

I am not so sure about the accuracy of this prediction. How much of an investment is required to purchase 150 megawatts of photovoltaic cells? This would represent an investment of <150 megawatts X 1.30 per watt> or $195 million. What is the espected economic life of that investment? I'm thinking these photovoltaic cells must be repeatedly replaced much like light bulbs in our homes. The prospectus talks about long term supply contracts as follows:

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.....We recently entered into long-term solar module supply contracts (the “Long Term Supply Contracts”) with six project developers and system integrators headquartered in Germany that allow for approximately € 1.2 billion ($1.4 billion at an assumed exchange rate of $1.20/ € 1.00) in sales from 2006 to 2011. These Long Term Supply Contracts contemplate the manufacture and sale of a total of 745MW of solar modules. Under each of our Long Term Supply Contracts, we have a unilateral option, exercisable until December 31, 2006, to increase the sales volumes and extend such contract through 2012. We plan to exercise each option promptly following the completion of this offering, after which these contracts will allow for approximately € 1.9 billion ($2.3 billion at an assumed exchange rate of $1.20/ € 1.00) in sales from 2006 to 2012 for a total of 1,270MW of solar modules. The sales contemplated by the Long Term Supply Contracts increase year over year through 2008 and remain constant thereafter. The Long Term Supply Contracts require a 6.5% annual decline in sales price and an approximately 5% annual increase from 2007 to 2009 in the minimum average sellable Watts per module. As a result, to maintain our historical gross margins we must reduce our average manufacturing cost per Watt by at least the same rate at which our contractual prices decrease. In addition, these contracts can be terminated by our customers if we are unable to meet the minimum average annual number of Watts per module required in a given year. The information in this paragraph is designed to summarize the financial terms of our Long Term Supply Contracts and is not intended to provide guidance on our future operating results, including revenues or profitability.

http://www.hoovers.com/free/co/secdoc.xhtml?ID=151560&ipage=4770530


Now compare this investment to say new generational thorium based high temperature gas cooled nuclear reactors which can be built to produce 150 to 800 megawatts of continuous power for over 25 years of economic life with virtually no added fuel costs and a minimum of operating expenses over the life of the investment.

http://www.ne.doe.gov/pdfFiles/AFCICompRpt2003.pdf

<snip>
2.4 Gas-Cooled Fast Reactor Systems
Gas-Cooled Fast Reactor concepts offer a closed fuel cycle through high conversion or breeding of fissile materials. A breeding capability around unity may be of interest if the GFR is used in a synergistic fuel cycle with LWRs. GFRs using a direct Brayton cycle have the potential to combine the advantages of high sustainability and economic competitiveness while making nuclear energy benefit from the most efficient conversion technology available.

The reference concept is a 600 MWth/288 MWe, helium cooled reactor system operating with an outlet temperature of about 850°C and using a direct Brayton cycle gas turbine. The thermal efficiency is estimated to approach 48%. There are several fuel design options including both the prismatic (with fuel particles or composite fuels) and fuel pins (with actinide compound/solid solution). A major challenge is to develop adequate fuel technologies and associated core design and treatment processes to preserve most of the attractive safety features of thermal GCRs.

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<caution 3.6mgb sized file>

http://gif.inel.gov/roadmap/pdfs/016_description_of_candidate_gas-cooled_reactor_systems_report.pdf


It is all good, if we can get away from our nearly total dependance on burning up fossil fuels for our power needs over the next 50 years.

[jpak]

3. Warranties on PV modules range from 20-25 years

They are guaranteed to produce 80% of their nameplate capacity over the warranty period.

The service life of a PV module is >40 years.

[Porcupine]

5. Well you can sell a solar panel to anybody, anywhere.......

You can sell solar panels to the Taliban with absolute clear conscience.

While I wonder at the wisdom of betting our future on the ability of welders to produce multiple vessels that can hold high-temperature, high-pressure helium. Of course Thorium reactors will still produce plutonium if you introduce Uranium 238 to them.

I would like to see some demonstration projects using molten salt reactors to consume plutonium and reduce bomb material inventories before I trust the whole nuclear industry. The whole proccess of repeatedly proccessing nuclear fuels (rods, pellets, pebbles) generates unneccesary waste and danger. It sure makes money though.

[spag68]

4. Anything that promotes solar power is good, but

it's sad that we here seem to have lost another opportunity to be the manufacturer of record for this product. When will we start making things here again?

[skids]

6. Many of the companies are U.S. based.

Nanosolar's new factory will end up in the 300MW range and is going to be in CA. Evergreen may make most of their cells in Germany, but they do have a plant in Marlboro, MA and they are keeping it up to date. Daystar's still only producing small quantities, but their factory is in NY. ECD ovonics manufactures in the U.S. and are steadily becoming one of the bigger suppliers. Konarka manufactures in Lowell, MA.

We get a slice of this pie, even if investors have been inordinantly reluctant over the decades, the cash could not elude the producers forever and despite having to bootstrap from < 100MW fabs they seem to be scaling up pretty fast.