CSIRO Modeling Suggests Much Worse In Store For Victoria, Melbourne By 2030 - Age

[hatrack]

IT WAS a week in which the city's air quality dropped to its lowest level in 20 years as early bushfires continued to blacken all in their path; Melbourne's water storages dipped to a 22-year-low, and the city sweltered through its fourth day above 35 degrees since the beginning of summer.

But while Victorians look to the horizon and pray for immediate relief, there is evidence that our intemperate climate is only going to get worse in future. A lot worse. Climate modelling by the CSIRO forecasts that we can expect the state to get hotter and drier in the years to 2030, with more days in the high 30s and more extreme weather events such as flash flooding and storm surges.

The national science agency first carried out modelling for the state in 2001, with further work in 2004 and joint research with Melbourne Water in 2005. But the climate impacts and risk group's principal research scientist, Kevin Hennessy, says its projections carry new significance in light of the extreme drought and heightened public awareness of climate change.

"Water resources, agriculture, forests, fisheries, energy, coastal settlements, tourism and health will all be affected," Mr Hennessy says. And the combined effects of climate change in metropolitan Melbourne have not yet been teased out of the research. "(The) effect of heatwaves, such as increased heat-related illness and death, fire activity, smoke pollution, use of air-conditioners and demand for energy (can all be expected). "Then there is the buckling of railway lines and melting of tar on roads. All these would have major implications for emergency management, road maintenance, hospital admissions, and peak power capacity," Mr Hennessy says.

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http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/climate-set-to-go-from-bad-to-worse/2006/12/22/1166290743039.html