Mexico Tries To Save Big, Fading Oil Field (the Death of the Cantarell)

[Dogmudgeon]

A good backgrounder on a bad problem.

Apr 05, 2007 (From the Wall Street Journal via Dow Jones Newswires)

AKAL C OIL PLATFORM, Gulf of Mexico -- In March 1971, a Mexican fisherman named Rudesindo Cantarell took a few geologists from state-run oil company Petroleos Mexicanos to this spot, where he had seen oil slicks. Mr. Cantarell didn't know it, but he had stumbled across one of the largest offshore oil fields ever found.

A few decades and 12 billion barrels of oil later, the field that bears Mr. Cantarell's name is dying, and Pemex, as the state-owned company is known, is struggling to stave off the field's demise. From January 2006 though February 2007, Cantarell lost a staggering one-fifth of its production, with daily output falling to 1.6 million barrels from two million.

The oil industry was stunned. Cantarell, which currently produces one of every 50 barrels of oil on the world market, is fading so fast analysts believe Mexico may become an oil importer in eight years. That would batter Mexico's economy, which depends on oil exports to fund 40% of its government spending.

The continued deterioration of the world's second-biggest field by output would also put pressure on prices on the global oil market, where supplies are barely keeping up with growing demand as it is. And it would leave the U.S. even more dependent on Middle Eastern supplies -- and that much more vulnerable to political tumult in that region.

...

Link to the article at Rigzone (NO registration required)

Link to the discussion at The Oil Drum

--p!

[MADem]

1. I predict we'll snuggle up to CUBA if this keeps up!!! The North Cuba basin is loaded!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14095881/

What has changed the equation?

Oil.

To be more specific, recent, sizable discoveries of it in the North Cuba Basin — deep-water fields that have already drawn the interest of companies from China, India, Norway, Spain, Canada, Venezuela and Brazil.

Embargo past its prime?
This, in turn, has reheated debate in the U.S. Congress and the Cuban-American community on an old question:

Has the time finally come to shelve the embargo — given America’s need for more sources of crude at a time of rising gas prices, soaring global demand and the outbreak of war in the Middle East?

Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, an expert on Cuba energy matters and a political science professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, says America’s thirst for oil will soon force a fundamental change in Washington’s relations with Havana.

[IDemo]

2. "America’s thirst for oil will soon force a fundamental change in Washington’s relations with-"

Washington hasn't shown itself to be very adept at managing relations when Texas tea is involved.

[MADem]

4. Sure they have. Why do you think we put up with a bunch of assholes who oppress women in the desert

and who have no compunctions about killing people for things that aren't even crimes (fucking around, being gay, for example) in the rest of the world? Why do you think we rent our military out to them? Do you think they have a servicemember who'd actually do any serious FIGHTING, save a few clowns who think they're Tom Cruise in Top Gun when they fly in their little jets? Their military is the laziest bunch of bums ever. They do like to order their servants to make sure those creases look good, though! And they're fond of medals!

King Abdullah has us by the balls. He 'directs' BushCo; he 'summons' Cheney. And it's because he has the oil. And no amount of "jawboning" will persuade him to open the spigots unless HE gets something out of the deal. But his reserves aren't limitless. Already the Kingdom diversifies. They 'invest' in all sorts of ventures.b

We don't suck up to Hugo because his shit is heavy and sour. It's too much trouble to refine, frankly. We like the nicer stuff. We're spoiled.

[IDemo]

6. Ok, I left out the ones who rate hand-holding,

but the king has sent signals this week that he may be growing increasingly uncomfortable with George and the US. Plus, what Aramco is seeing more and more of at the wellhead is water, spigots be damned.

I guess I was speaking of the relations that the chimp has 'cultivated' with nations (Iraq, Iran, etc.) that have not yet peaked or watered out.

[BeFree]

8. Saudi Arabia

Hmmmm. Don't you know they felt threatened by Saddam Hussien and the once evolving Iraq?

Looks like they got us to get rid of their biggest problem, eh?

Like you say, we rent out our military to them. All for the black gold. 'Course, we couldn't live without it.

[Dogmudgeon]

3. Here's the key

From the article: The North Cuba Basin (holds) a substantial quantity of oil — 4.6 billion to 9.3 billion barrels of crude and 9.8 trillion to 21.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

Let's assume on the high side, that the North Cuba Basin will eventually prove to be the size of the Cantarell.

I don't think we'll cozy up to Havana; I think there mill be a coup in Cuba. Real soon.

The long-range problem is that it only gives us a few more months on the oil production curve plateau.

--p!

[MADem]

5. I didn't say we'd snuggle up to the present government, necessarily.

But one way, or another, we'll be dancing at the Cabaret Montmatre in downtown Havana before too much longer.

[NickB79]

9. If they can extract the oil

Without their rigs being destroyed every few years by Cat. 5 hurricanes due to global warming. I don't have much hope that open-ocean rigs can help slow the decline much.

[MADem]

10. They'll need to design a 'detachable' superstructure for those things

And just shut down during hurricane season, I guess! I'm sure if prices keep rising, the associated costs will still be worth it...

[phantom power]

7. Run, run, pathetic earth humans!

How I laugh as I watch you struggle for your last drops of oil! :rofl:




Oh hell, did I say that out loud? My secret masters are going to be so pissed.