Expert: "Peak oil" will force changes

[4dsc]

Now here's another person asking some very good questions.. DO you believe high gas prices are temporary??

http://www.madison.com/tct/news/135465

Optimist that he is, Greg Pahl actually sees an upside to the latest jump in fuel prices: the growing realization among Americans that the gas crisis isn't going away.

"And those who do think this is a temporary anomaly are dreaming," the author and renewable energy expert said in a phone interview from his home in Weybridge, Vt. "They don't understand what we're getting into here. This is just the beginning."

Indeed, Pahl maintains that the most critical -- and under-reported -- issue facing the world right now is that we're approaching the time of "peak oil," the historic moment when world oil production and reserves begin to decline.

So how can Pahl be an optimist?

Because "if we take action right now at all levels -- local, state, federal and even global, for that matter -- I think we can probably get through this thing reasonably well," he says.

But that's a huge "if," he quickly adds, because "most Americans tend to be relatively uneducated or unsophisticated in their knowledge of energy issues." Moreover, the Bush Administration has virtually ignored the threat, he notes. And Congress hasn't been much better.

[GliderGuider]

1. It's frustrating

Someone like Pahl "gets" peak oil, but is unwilling or unable to factor in the evolutionary underpinnings of human psychology and the behaviour it drives. This leads to a situation where he is hanging in mid-air - he has fully comprehended the problem, but can't admit there is no realistic solution in the time available. This conundrum is going to lead him and most other Peak Oil activists to spend inordinate amounts of energy on approaches that have no chance of becoming solutions. If we spend all our time, attention and energy on things that will not help us deal with either the onset or the aftermath of Peak Oil, we truly will have no hope.

Articles like this are somewhat hopeful as evidence that more people are "getting it", but ultimately they are unhelpful because they promote the feeling that something can yet be done to keep our civilization more or less on an even keel.

Here is a realistic look at Peak Oil:

1. The peak happened early in 2005. We are just now completing the second year of an undulating plateau of oil supply.
   
2. Cantarell, Ghawar, Burgan and Da Qing (the world's 4 biggest fields) are already declining, and the North Sea is crashing.
   
3. We will fall off the plateau within the next year.
   
4. The decline in oil supply will start slowly at first, and will pick up speed as more large fields deplete.
   
5. By 2020 we could easily lose 30% or more of the world's oil supply.
   
6. We will see continuing rounds of price bidding that will knock progressively more poor nations out of the oil market.
   
7. There is no realistic prospect that within 13 years alternative fuels can replace 30% of our oil supply. We are out of time, and the scale is too big.
   
8. Oil is the world's master resource.
   
9. As oil supplies decline, the world economy will go permanently into reverse.
   
10. Because our global economic structure (capitalist, communist or mixed-market socialist makes no difference) is predicated on continuing aggregate growth, the comprehension that economic contraction is permanent will cause a massive global destabilizing loss of economic confidence.
    
11. Some rich nations with healthy mixed economies, discretionary spending that can be cut, good climates and local food producing ability will do well. Other nations that lack one or more of these attributes will collapse.
    
12. Transportation is the key interconnection that has made our global civilization productive and efficient. At the same time it has reduced the resilience of the civilization. It has done that two ways - transportation provides pathways for system shocks (pandemics, terrorism, modern warfare) and it has promoted national specialization with a dependence on the import/export system to spread goods to where they are needed but not produced. The risks this poses as oil supplies begin to decline cannot be overstated.
    
13. Most nations will not respond altruistically (to put it mildly) to the combined effects of oil decline, a destabilizing global economy and reduced imports of food and goods. The Prisoners' Dilemma will apply, and every nation (with the full support of its population) will seek to maximize their perceived short-term advantage at the expense of all other nations.
    
14. In other words, every effort will be made to preserve as much Business As Usual as possible, no matter what the long-term costs. This means coal fired power plants and resource wars, inter alia.

At the same time as this crisis is unfolding, we will also be facing the simultaneous threats of Global Warming, the destruction of the oceans, a potential crisis in global food production and fresh water availability, as well as pervasive chemical pollution. We are also in the middle of a mass extinction event that could rival the Permian. All of these problems are longer-term than Peak Oil. Their combined effect on the planet may ultimately be greater than the loss of oil and gas, but Peak Oil will be the immediate precipitating factor for an escalating round of planet-wide difficulties.

In the face of this, what we need to do IMNSHO is to forget about trying to slow the decline for civilization as a whole. We need to accept that a relatively small number of people (how many is the subject of much debate) will survive. We need to start putting in place survivable enclaves of various sorts, in locations all over the globe. They will need to be relatively isolated and self-sufficient, with the ability to lock down tight if circumstances demand it. Creating such lifeboats is something that relatively small groups of aware individuals could accomplish without needing to get the masses or their representatives involved. This could also be done in the time we have left, so long as we don't get greedy and try to save too many.

Beyond that we all need to HELP:

Humanize (make sure your social networks are in good repair)
Economize (reduce your consumption of energy, goods and services to a minimum)
Localize (draw in your horizons - buy locally produced food and other goods, and use local services wherever possible)
Produce (as much of your own food and energy as you can).

Oh, and get thee to the non-discretionary side of the economy ASAP. If you're a travel agent, start looking for another line of work. I strongly recommend carpentry, masonry, animal husbandry and agriculture.

Good luck to all.

[IDemo]

2. I think Deffeyes or Heinberg predicted Thanksgiving 2005

That sounds more like it to me than "we are approaching the peak".

Good source from peakoil.com for like-minded people:Planning For The Future

[GliderGuider]

3. The reason I go with May 2005

That was the monthly production peak so far of Crude & Condensate production according to the EIA:



To me that trend line says, "We're there."

[4dsc]

4. Either way..

[GliderGuider]

5. Yep. Six or seven months makes absolutely no difference to the big picture.

[Nihil]

8. I nominate that diagram for the most succinct summary to date.

Just a brief burp in the history of the planet.
:applause:

[depakid]

6. #9 is the key

"As oil supplies decline, the world economy will go permanently into reverse."

The macroeconomy:



is simply a subset of the




Without increasing energy inputs or drastically increasing efficiency, the macroeconomy cannot grow -unless of course, one believes or magic- or manna from heaven.

This stark reality will affect Americans more than most, due to the structure of the society and the insane trade policies that have led to the destruction of local networks of production, mass transportation and commerce.

Some areas will of course fare better than others- though I don't envision a soft landing, and I fully expect there to be a LOT of scapegoating as people finally begin to get it (as it begins to affect them personally).

[IrateCitizen]

7. I'm looking for the bright spots of sunlight through the dark clouds

You wrote: We need to start putting in place survivable enclaves of various sorts, in locations all over the globe. They will need to be relatively isolated and self-sufficient, with the ability to lock down tight if circumstances demand it.

I don't know that I'd put the cart before the horse on that last part. I prefer to look at the brighter side of things in the short term, which primarily revolves around the "humanize" part of your HELP model. The reason I say this is the brighter side of things is that simply reinvigorating human contact in our daily lives will, IMHO, make our lives much richer as our material wealth declines.

After that, the "locking down against outsiders" either takes care of itself or doesn't. Human beings are incredibly tribal animals, at heart. I think that if the humanization element is taken care of sufficiently, social ties will be strong enough to unite small communities or enclaves against any outside threat.

But frankly, I don't care much to talk about "threats" at this point. Rather, I continue to concentrate on the moments in everyday life that make you pause and say, "Isn't this nice?" Spending too much time thinking about survivalism tends to turn preparing for some kind of energy decline into an activity of drudgery. Personally, I believe that it offers almost limitless opportunities for us to rediscover our existence as social animals and experience the wonder (and sometimes infuriating nature) of living in community with others.

[GliderGuider]

9. I couldn't agree more

The best thing we can do as individuals is encapsulated in HELP, and of those principles Humanize is by far the most important as you rightly point out.

Some may interpret my remarks as "survivalist", but I'm the farthest thing from a shotgun-toting, dried-bean-storing, razor-wire survivalist you could imagine. My main concern is that if we as a society are going to put large amounts of organized effort into "doing something" that our efforts not be wasted on pointless activities due to misapprehensions about what's coming.

You're right on the mark when it comes to how we should be acting in our daily lives as well. I liken it to the epiphany people get when they are diagnosed with a terminal disease. Once you are through all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, you realize that every day we have on this blue-green ball is precious, no matter how many or few we have left. Every day should be lived fully, mindfully, in the present, in the conscious company of those who are sharing these moments with us. We need to join with others to live on the right path, however we define that for ourselves. We need to realize that the world cannot be a better place in the future if we don't make it a better place right now. Community is the key.

I recently underwent exactly this sort of awakening, which I've written about in an article here. While it discusses my personal response, one key part of feeling more in harmony with the universe and our planet is feeling in harmony with our neighbours.

[razzleberry]

10. since electricity won't be affected

either, as in the US, not much oil is used for electricity,
or, for the rest of the world, coal could substitute.

I think the gloom and doom is overstated.

[GliderGuider]

11. Electric cars will save the world?

We have less than ten years until the global transportation networks that consume 70% of the oil start failing. Can we replace half the third world's minivan taxis with Tesla Roadsters in that time?

Even for those uses where electricity could take up the energy slack, coal is a catastrophic substitute from the climate's perspective.

[razzleberry]

12. shipping, rail, survive in the long term

let me clarify my point,
electricity is a big part of modern life,
and as I wrote, electricity is largely unnaffected
by suppose future reductions in oil production.
of course, third-world 'neighborhood' diesel generators would be history.

ships, could convert to coal,
farming, same
rail, electric or coal
petrochemicals could perhaps convert to coal tar

lots of trucking, could convert to rail,
at least in the developed world

[GliderGuider]

13. Electric rail is going to be a big growth industry over the next 20 years.

Any fixed-route transportation is a candidate for electrification - inter-city cargo and passenger, as well as intra-city public transit. The problem over the long term will be the flexible, ad hoc routes currently served by trucks and cars.

But any time anyone says "convert to coal" my blood runs cold, I'm afraid.

[razzleberry]

14. people will take matters into their own hands

the politician that says........
.................
my 28000 SF mansion needs electricity 24 hours a day,
but you only need electricity 1 h a day,
gets voted out of office
.....................

the politician that says.......
...............
I have a choice to make,
you (but not me) starve, or,
farmers are allowed to run coal-fired tractors.
I have chosen the former...

gets voted out of office

[depakid]

17. "flexible, ad hoc routes currently served by trucks and cars."

I'm often amazed when I think about how cites like New York constantly resupply and replenish themselves- self organized complexity.

The process gives me some hope as to the inevitable delinking from globalization and relocalization of communities on a more sustainable scale.

[NickB79]

15. Converting to coal will kill millions via global warming

And even if we wanted to go down that path, we only have a decade or so to convert while sliding into a 2nd Great Depression that will sap most funds normally available for investing in new technology.

Plus, if you do a search here on the EE board, you'll find a report posted in the past month or two that stated we're only 15 yrs away from Peak Coal.

[NickB79]

16. Natural gas in North America is peaking as well

And we generate a substantial portion of our electricity from natural-gas-fired turbines.