Beijing hands Moscow a long rope

[bemildred]

SHANGHAI - When Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China, who really got what? Who were and are the winners in the short term and the long run? Russia got a chunk of territory and China's endorsement of Moscow's World Trade Organization (WTO) entry; China did not get a coveted pipeline but there were a spate of mutually beneficial economic accords. Still, China takes the long view and figures that it will come out on top. It may take 20 years, strategic analysts calculate, but China sees itself the winner.

Putin paid his third state visit to China last week, marking the 55th anniversary of the establishment of Sino-Russian (then Sino-Soviet) diplomatic relations. Putin got what Russia wanted from China: approval of a powerful state for Russia's accession to the WTO. Russia and China also resolved their long-standing dispute over their 4,300-kilometer-long borders, somewhat in Russia's favor. More than 10 (primarily economic) agreements were signed, but not the big prize - the route of an oil pipeline. China seeks a branch from Russia's far east to China's northeast region. Putin said directly that this should be considered from Russia's interests. In other words, China didn't get what it wants to get from Putin's visit, and was disappointed. The outcome, however, is linked by Chinese analysts, and others, to the fact that China is a rising power while Russia is the declining empire. Japan, meanwhile, is also in the running for the pipeline and has offered huge financial incentives to Moscow.

More generally, people in China have all kinds of misunderstandings and questions over Sino-Russian relations, and are unwilling to agree with Putin that Sino-Russian relations are enjoying the best period in their history. They consider that there is a phenomenon of "upper hot while lower cold" - politics hot while economy cold - and naturally there is distrust between the two. The An-Da (Angarsk to Daqing) oil line has not been resolved and its possible death - though not actually confirmed - was especially damaging to China's perception of Russia.

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Russia is yesterday's superpower, the US is today's only superpower and China will be tomorrow's world power. This is the key to understanding the new strategic triangle involving China, the US and Russia. In other words, the United States has had more space to develop in order to reach the peace bonus since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union. Right now China is keeping a low profile but preparing to do what it wants to do and what is in its own best interest. The decline of Russia is not over yet. This will influence the dynamics of the China-US-Russia strategic triangle.

Asia times

[troubleinwinter]

1. Thanks. I had wondered how the pipeline deal was going.

[amandabeech]

2. I believe that China recently inked a deal with Kazahkstan

to extend a Russia-Kazakh pipeline into China, thus bypassing Daqing. The Kazahks have not promised that any of their oil will flow, just Russia's. I have not heard what the Russians think of that, since Putin gives evidence that he wants control over the export of Russian oil.

The author sees Russia as the sinking power and China as the rising power. Russia is coming out of centuries of poor leadership which was hostile to business. The Chinese may be farther along the capitalist road now, but I think that is may be too soon to make the final call.

The author discusses China's energy shortage and Russia's surplus a great deal going out to 2020. However, the author does not mention that oil supplies will decline in this century, and many knowledgable writers believe that the decline may come sooner rather than later. If hydrogen as a transport fuel is more hype than anything else, a view to which I subscribe, China will be scrambling for Russian oil and natural gas ten or 20 years from now even more than it is today. And let's not forget that Chinese coal supplies are being rapidly consumed in inefficient power plants. Siberia has large supplies of coal, albeit under lots of snow, and probably more locations for hydropower development.

The question remains as to whether a nationalist government in Russia, perhaps led by an aging Putin, will continue to sell energy to China once the energy crunch becomes serious, or anyone, or will Russia use its supplies to regain lost status, even to the point of a war with China (and Japan?) over resources. A world of declining energy supplies could be quite dangerous.

Russia is undergoing a tremendous transformation, albeit slowly. Surely, she is not a great economic power now, and her military may be debilitated. However, I think that it may be unwise to count her out quite this quickly.

[bemildred]

3. I agree.

On all points. I think we're all in for a rough ride,
and assumptions about who is well placed and who not are
mostly happy talk. There are elements in play that nobody
can see the consequences of. Both China and Russia have
huge internal issues, and it's not clear who is better led
at this point, though I'd give the edge to Putin, he's played
a truly lousy hand fairly well.

But it was well thought out and tries to be balanced within it's
frame, an antidote to the happy talk, or more accurately
head-in-the-sand tomorrow will be like today blather we get
in the western media.

And I like to see diverse points of view.