murder rate calculation?

[bossy22]

i was looking over data from the FBI on murder with guns and murder in general. according to the FBI the murder rate (and non-negligent manslaughter) was 6.1 (16,065) So i did a little calculation to just extrapolite the population size and i found out the number they are using is like 281,000,000 million (for the population size). I dont think this could be accurate because most estimates put us over 300 million people in 2006

anywho im asking does anyone know how the homicide rate is calculated by the FBI- i actually need this information for a paper


I really dont know if this post is allowed for in the rules but it seems the guys in this forum have a really good grasp of crime rates and trends

[sinkingfeeling]

1. It's usually based on x per 100,000 population. The stat I read, from 1990,

had US murder & non-negligent manslaughter at 9.3 per 100,000 and 2/3 of it was via guns.

http://books.google.com/books?id=zW7mi0Z7ZcQC&pg=PA364&lpg=PA364&dq=gun+murders+strangers+family+friend+usa&source=web&ots=AdB-RuqPVY&sig=2DQcfeorQV7_2D1CJERlcW10XrM&hl=en

[bossy22]

2. i know

how the per capita is done, im just trying to figure out the population size they use- meaning what they estimate to be the population size- it looks like they use the last census but in 2008 our population would be sizebly greater than what the 2000 census said

[Jim__]

3. What year were you looking at?

Here is one of their tables for violent crime. I don't find a year with 16,065 murders. This table might help, you also might be able to dig up their computation at the website. (Note: I don't find a year with a 6.1 murder rate either.)

[bossy22]

5. thanks thats helpful

but my other posts also have different numbers, check the links in one of my replies

[Jim__]

7. Table 16 is by population group.

Table 12 looks like it has the same totals. Some of the crimes may not fall into specific groups and drop out of Table 16. I'm just guessing. You might find some more details browsing around the site. Good luck.

[bossy22]

4. ill also add

that one link http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_12.html has a different number on murder than this link http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_16.html

[Mabus]

6. You should check the FBI website

As I understand it the FBI uses figures that are voluntarily submitted by law enforcement agencies. As a result, they don't get all the numbers. Check out the Uniform Crime Reports FAQ page at http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucrquest.htm Under the heading "Methodology" it says:

METHODOLOGY

Why and how are crimes estimated for publication in Crime in the United States?

Because not all law enforcement agencies provide complete data for a given year, it is sometimes necessary for the UCR Program to estimate crime at the Metropolitan Statistical Area, state, and national levels. For agencies that did not report data, the UCR Program staff assign the same proportional crime volumes based on the crime statistics of similar areas within a state. The UCR Program staff consider the size of an agency, type of jurisdiction, and geographic location in the estimation process. The UCR Program staff use a similar procedure for estimating the number of arrests for the Nation.

Are agency populations provided by the Bureau of the Census?

Yes. The UCR Program uses population figures from the Bureau of the Census. However, the UCR Program adjusts population figures for individual jurisdictions in noncensus years. More information on how the national UCR Program determines population is available in Appendix I, "Methodology," of . (Please link to www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm#cius).

Good luck with that paper!

[krispos42]

8. I use the Bureau of Justice Statistics

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/





The information table that this graph was created from shows in 2005, the homicide rate was 5.6 per 100,000 with 16,692 deaths. That gives a calculated population of 298,071,429, which sounds about right for 2005.

It's possible that they're using the 2000 census number instead of the annual estimate done by the Census Bureau.




Yeah, here it is. The population estimate on April 1, 2000 was 281,424,602.

http://www.census.gov/popest/states/tables/NST-EST2007-01.xls\


Although based on the numbers you gave in the OP, I'm getting a population of 263,344,262.

:shrug: Hope this helps.