and the numbers are in

[iverglas]

Little comparative current events news for you all.


http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5jGdxw9fx5PNyxLGwhflTh931LMOw
(article dated 4 hours ago)

OTTAWA — Canada's national crime rate fell in 2007 for the third straight year, with declines in everything from homicides and gun crimes to minor property offences, says a new report.

Statistics Canada says the seven per cent drop in the national crime rate was led by falling counterfeiting offences and theft under $5,000, including fewer break-ins and stolen cars. Robbery committed with a firearm declined 12 per cent from the previous year, hitting its lowest point in three decades.

The numbers fly in the face of popular media and political messaging, which portrays crime across Canada as rising in both volume and ferocity.

Statistics Canada reports there were fewer serious violent offences such as homicides, attempted murders, sexual assaults and robberies last year.

Police reported 594 murders, down slightly from 606 in 2006, following a long-term downward trend that began in the mid-1970s.

http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080717/d080717b.htm

Thursday, July 17, 2008
Crime statistics







Metropolitan areas: Declines seen in most cities

Crime rates fell in most census metropolitan areas last year, including the nine largest. The biggest declines occurred in Kitchener, Montréal and Winnipeg.

The highest overall crime rates occurred in the western metropolitan centres of Regina, Saskatoon, Abbotsford, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Victoria and Vancouver. Toronto reported the second lowest overall crime rate among all 27 metropolitan areas.

Violent crime rates also tended to be highest in Western Canada. The census metropolitan areas of Saint John, Thunder Bay and Halifax were exceptions to the general pattern, with each reporting violent crime rates similar to or higher than those in the West.

One in five homicides in Canada occurred in Toronto in 2007. However, taking population differences into account, homicide rates were highest in Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Calgary.

Huh. Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta (BC is more of a mixed bag, socially and demographically) -- highest crime rates, also highest rates of firearms ownership and gun militancy. Odd, eh?


Homicide rate nationally: 1.8/100,000 (down from 2.0/100,000 in 2005, the highest it had been in years).

Homicide rate in Toronto (you know, that terrible violent place): 2.0/100,000.

Robbery rate nationally: 90/100,000 -- we'll have to wait for the specific robbery report a little later to have actual rates for robbery with a firearm.
(Robbery rate nationally in the US, 2006: 149.4/100,000.)


We've got a right-wing government and we had economic problems in 2007, and still our crime rates go down.


I guess we're just not exceptional.

[aspergris]

1. canada had in excess

of a FIVE FOLD increase in violent crime PER CAPITA from 1962 to 1997.

And now you've had a small pullback

I'm more interested in why it rose 5 fold over 35 years.

[iverglas]

7. yeah, funny that

Myself, I'd suspect some reporting changes in there maybe.

But in terms of real changes, I'd think of urbanization and the rise in organized crime activity between 1960 and 1990, and of course the major demographic influences. Male baby boomers coming of prime crime-committing age, specifically.


It isn't possible to compare trends for the US and Canada without a lot more numbers. When it comes to violent crime specifically, here's the major problem: Canada's "violent crime" figiures and rates include what is now called "assault level one" (formrly "common assault"), and US figures do not.

So this year, of 306,559 (930/100,000) "violent crimes", 179,586 were assault level one. That is, well over half of "violent crimes" were minor assaults.

Excluding level one assaults, Canada's violent crime rate in 2007 was about 387/100,000.

The US rate was 473.5/100,000 in 2006.

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm


Oh, of course, that's also including another significant category that isn't included in US "violent crime" numbers and rates: "Other sexual offences" (2,784, accounting for 8/100,000 in the violent crime rate) and whichever offences in the "Sexual assault (levels 1,2,3)" (21,449, accounting for 65/100,000, all three levels combined) do not equate to "rape" in the US figures.


I do suspect some reporting changes over the years, and the more detailed statcan reports that will be put out in the next couple of months might provide more info.


Meanwhile, consider trends in the US violent crime rate:

1960: 160.9/100,000
1992: 757.5/100,000


So ... what's that you were saying about five-fold increases?

The pattern was quite amazingly similar, wasn't it? In rate changes, if not in actual rates.

[tburnsten]

2. What does this have to do with U.S. policy?

Thought so.

[Longtooth]

3. About as much as the price of tea in China.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[exothermic]

4. Do you know that Mountie who

jumped on his whistle and blew his horse?







;-)

[razors edge]

5. Will you be moving there soon?

Say hi to the polar bears for me.

[iverglas]

6. catch up now

[razors edge]

11. If only it were a possibility.

The American mindset on the issue will not go there for another two or three generations, if we make it that long.

[iverglas]

13. we be at cross purposes, perhaps

I have lived in Canada since being born here.

Only place I ever saw a polar bear, though, was in a zoo!

Urban raccoons in my yard, and if I drive out the urban expressway a ways I do see a lot of squashed groundhogs in spring.



I think two or three generations might be a tad optimistic in your case, but what the hell, I'll be an optimist.

It's how no generation ever actually seems to learn anything there that kills me. Vietnam? Iraq! No learning from one's misdeeds seems to occur ...

[razors edge]

15. Vietnamnesia, and more.

I am a gun collector, I only buy the classic, unusual, or discontinued soon to be collectors items, new or like new. My collection is secure and video monitored.

That said, I do appreciate your balanced approach to the issue, (for the most part) and hope we can come to some reasonable outcome that doesn't cost us a heritage, or an election. Keeping guns out of a criminal's hands does not offend me in the least.

The only thing guaranteed in life is change. We all have to live with that one, lets hope it is change for the best for all concerned.


Edit: PS, I live in Toledo, Canada is my emergency evac plan. Maybe I'll see you there.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

9. Interesting statement.

Huh. Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta (BC is more of a mixed bag, socially and demographically) -- highest crime rates, also highest rates of firearms ownership and gun militancy. Odd, eh?

This could easily be construed as a racist statement. We all know you would never post a racist statement but for those who don't know you so well, they may interpret things differently.

David

[iverglas]

10. what on earth?

This could easily be construed as a racist statement.

Maybe by a Martian.

BC is, socially and demographically, quite different from Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. Now if you could explain how that statement can be "construed as a racist statement", I will be grateful.

Otherwise, I think you probably still have time to delete your noxious post.

[iverglas]

12. being the wonderful, sharing person I am

I'm going to help you out.


2001 census
http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/demo62a.htm
Click on province at side to see breakdowns.

The figures below are in this order: total pop, urban pop, rural pop, % urban, %rural.


British Columbia
3,907,738 - 3,309,853 - 597,885 - 85 - 15

Alberta
2,974,807 - 2,405,160 - 569,647 - 81 - 19

Saskatchewan
978,933 - 629,036 - 349,897 - 64 - 36

Manitoba
1,119,583 - 805,321 - 314,262 - 72 - 28


British Columbia is a "mixed bag" in numerous ways that the other provinces are not. The geography of BC alone is a major factor -- people living on islands in the Pacific accessible only by water, for instance. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are essentially landlocked and do not have the geographic barriers that exist in British Columbia.

Obviously, my main point was the urbanization rate -- Alberta is approaching the urbanization rate of BC, but Saskatchewan and Manitoba are still heavily rural.

And yes indeedy do, the populations of the three landlocked provinces are way, far more homogeneous than the population of BC. They are not major destinations for international migrations. And they are not exposed to the international organized crime influences that have had a considerable impact on crime in Vancouver, which is a gateway city with international exposure and influences such as none of the other three has.

You'll also find that among the native born white folks of the three other provinces, rates of Christian religiosity are consistently higher than in BC. BC has the highest rate of "No religious affiliation" in Canada (16.5% nationally, which is bizarrely skewed downward by the 5.8% rate in Quebec; 36% in BC). Very roughly, Alberta has about 3/4 of BC's population, but very nearly as many Protestants.

Yup, some of that is due to ethnic makeup; some of it is due to differences within the white native-born population.


Essentially, BC has a very diverse population -- heavily urban, heavily cosmopolitan, ethnically/religiously diverse, high proportion of born-abroad, considerable exposure to international influences, and also remote communities scattered around the landscape. Alberta's population is much less diverse in terms ethnic and birth status and less urban. Manitoba and Saskatchewan are several notches lower in terms of diversity and urbanization, and international exposure.


I do hope that helps.

[CHIMO]

14. A Picture

Is worth ....

http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=&imgrefurl=http://organics.wildernessranchcanada.ca/location.htm&h=367&w=490&sz=52&tbnid=lwaYlKLL2O0J::&tbnh=97&tbnw=130&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dcanada%2Bmap&hl=en&sa=X&oi=image_result&resnum=4&ct=image&cd=1

[iverglas]

16. heh

That actually hadn't occurred to me.

[krispos42]

17. Alwas good to have lower crime rates!

:thumbsup: