Likelihood of new AWB?

[Codename46]

Lets assume the following:

1) Obama/Biden wins
2) Democratic majority in Congress
3) Appointment of Liberal Judges in SCOTUS

What is the likelihood of a new AWB while Obama is in office given the above?

[bluestateguy]

1. Slim to none

Too many Democrats represent districts where that type of stuff (gun control) will not be tolerated.

[rl6214]

21. If the chance is slim to none

Than why is this section in the DNC platform:

Firearms
We recognize that the right to bear arms is an important part of the American tradition, and we
will preserve Americans’ Second Amendment right to own and use firearms. We believe that
the right to own firearms is subject to reasonable regulation, but we know that what works in
Chicago may not work in Cheyenne. We can work together to enact and enforce commonsense
laws and improvements – like closing the gun show loophole, improving our background
check system, and REINSTATING THE ASSAULT WEAPON BAN, so that guns do not fall into the hands of
terrorists or criminals. Acting responsibly and with respect for differing views on this issue, we
can both protect the constitutional right to bear arms and keep our communities and our children
safe.

Can Barack prevent the DNC from ramming this down our throats?

[rl6214]

22. And from Barack's own website

Address Gun Violence in Cities:
As president, Barack Obama would repeal the Tiahrt Amendment, which restricts the ability of local law enforcement to access important gun trace information, and give police officers across the nation the tools they need to solve gun crimes and fight the illegal arms trade. Obama and Biden also favor commonsense measures that respect the Second Amendment rights of gun owners, while keeping guns away from children and from criminals who shouldn't have them. They support closing the gun show loophole and making guns in this country childproof. They also support making the expired federal Assault Weapons Ban permanent, as such weapons belong on foreign battlefields and not on our streets.

[bossy22]

28. "they support"

you can support an issue and not openly advocate it....i dont think gun control is going to be a big thing in an obama administration


and i dont think he can restrict the Tiahrt amendment....congress would have too

[rl6214]

29. I do hope

you are correct on this.

[JoeyMac]

36. The problem is lack of checks and balances this time...

If a very democratic majority is elected with Obama, Biden, Pelosi, and Clinton being figureheads... all it's going to take is one bold representaive to propose a bill. Hell, in that whole chain of command, Obama is probably the LEAST antigun - and that's quite a feat with his voting record. Congressmen propose antigun bills all the time and the next time they do it will just roll right through the legislative process without checks.

We aren't stupid enough this time around to pass another "AWB" with a swift stroke of the pen. It will happen gradually in segements with "common sense" legislation. Probably three or four bills will get passed and we'll be right in the same spot as if one big AWB had been passed. I say the gradual progession will begin in year 2/3 - late enough to disassociate the election dem control with gun banning... but soon enough that there is plenty of time for a 'gradual progression' to happen.

The dems will not do anything to jeopardize thier newfound majority by trying another AWB at the cost of control. However you can bet your ass if pelosi, obama, biden, and the rest of the gun grabbers think they can fulfill the antigun agenda and still keep the majority they will try it. I have no doubt in my mind they would go for it.

[rcrush]

2. Whats an AWB?

[rcrush]

3. Wait nevermind I just realized what forum this was.

Saw it on the New Posts page.

[Fovea]

4. I think anti-crime efforts are going

to change in ways that make AWB less likely.

[Tejas]

27. That is exactly what needs to be done

Less glorification of the "thug life" would be a good start.

[remedy1]

5. None.

The Democratic party has finally realized that there are many Democrats who strongly support RKBA, including semi auto rifles.

Enforce the current laws.

[bossy22]

6. almost none

there is no stomach for the fight....and i doubt a president obama would want to spend precious political capital on an almost purely symbolic gesture

[spin]

7. If there is another AWB ban..

the Democrats in office will have shot themselves in the foot once again.

[jody]

8. IMO zero. Once elected Obama will want to win in 2012 and if he signed a new AWB it would almost

certainly doom his prospects for reelection.

IMO he and his closest advisers would have to be incredibly, politically-stupid to sign an AWB bill -- they are not! :shrug:

[Codename46]

9. But Bill Clinton won re-election despite signing the AWB.

[virginia mountainman]

10. Yea, and we lost congress....

He said so in his 1995 State of the Union address

I don't want to destroy the good atmosphere in the room or in the country tonight, but I have to mention one issue that divided this body greatly last year. The last Congress also passed the Brady Bill and, in the crime bill, the ban on 19 assault weapons. I don't think it's a secret to anybody in this room that several members of the last Congress who voted for that aren't here tonight because they voted for it. And I know, therefore, that some of you who are here because they voted for it are under enormous pressure to repeal it.

http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/P/bc42/speeches/sud95wjc.htm

Now, gun owners are far, FAR more organized, as you have even seen, even in very liberal circles, Actually, the congress and senate, are far more pro gun now, then they was in 1994.

[jody]

11. IMO things have changed since then and the revised AWB HR 1022 could ban even more semiautomatics.

We also have crime history after the AWB expired showing the ban had no effect on crime.

I believe we 80+ million gun-owners are more willing to fight for our rights today and we won't let another AWB become law without a knock-down, drag-out, no-holds-barred fight at the ballot box.

Those are just my opinions but I will not let my gun-owner friends, probably several thousand, vote again so ignorantly of the AWB as is happening in this election.

[bossy22]

12. true

the ban was passed during a different era....too much political capital would be spent trying to pass a new ban- he only says it to appease certain parts of his constituency....yes im sorry to say obama is just like any other politician- he lies

[krispos42]

16. In a 3-way race against Bob Dole and Ross Perot

Both of Clinton's elections are interesting in that he did not with a majority of the popular vote in either. He won 43% in 1992 and 49.2% in 1996.

If Perot wasn't in the running, would he have displaced Bush41 in '92?



In either case, the sharp right the country took after the 1994 elections moderated many of his policies, turning him into somebody that economically was to the right of Eisenhower.

[Tejas]

13. Nope

Having the internet at our disposal has changed the way things work. We're no longer at the mercy of finding things out when they show up on the front page of the local paper or the cover of a monthly magazine. Current activities on the hill and voting records are a few keystrokes away, the powers-that-be know this full well.

The NRA also knows this. If the NRA does stupid things that compare with past faults, they'll be put on the same shelf the same as Brady as they would be just as useless and detrimental.

Since the Heller case, the pace has picked up. The NRA, elected officials, and lobbyists all know this. If any of them have a lick of sense whatsoever left in their heads, they'll do their best not to get thrown under the bus like in '94.

Interesting times!

[Codename46]

14. Didn't the NRA not back Heller at the beginning of the case?

If I can remember correctly, they only started supporting Heller when there was huge popular support for Heller?

[Tejas]

18. logistics played a large part

Don't have it all in my head but it had to do with chances of winning, the technicalities between Parker and Heller were weighed and Heller came out on top as a "sure thing".

Someone else here might have a better synopsis.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

15. I don't believe Obama will be able to replace any of the conservative judges.

I don't see any of them leaving. Having said that I'd say odds are against a new AWB, lots of conservative democrats from the south in the house, I don't even think they'll float the idea. If they do we'll lose the house in 2010.

David

[krispos42]

17. Presented in the House, never passes.

however, the attempt will provide fuel for the reich wing in 2010 or 2012.

[slackmaster]

19. I believe Congress has wised up on that one

Enough of them remember what happened the last time they tried to ban some of the most popular sporting firearms. Things are different now - Lots more people own weapons that would be affected. We are also much more connected and politically aware than we were in 1994.

[Hangingon]

20. Lots of people think it is a sure thing.

With his background on the subject and the Democratic Platform it is tough to convince gun owners it won't happen.

[Xela]

23. I am scared sh*&%less

On this specific issue, I am.

I am very worried that the AWB will be reinstated (or made worse).

I am concerned that specific firearm's prices will go through the roof.

I would like to think the Dems have wisened up...but I can't help it.

(Edit: Any chances the original post can be made into a poll :) )

Xela

Armed Liberal Pacifist

[jeepnstein]

24. Scared?

I figure when gun control is finally adopted in this country, it'll be a Republican who shoves it down our throats. It'll be in the name of "Homeland Security". The Democrat Party has been burned by one AWB and I don't see them touching that one again.

[Xela]

25. Then why the AWB reinstatement rhetoric?

Bill Richardson put me at ease early...way early.

But that sure didn't last long :(

Xela

[Xela]

26. Somebody over at Progunprogressive made a good point...

The UN and IANSA will most surely take advantage of a Barak/Biden admnistration.

Darn gone it with that Rebecca Peters...

Xela

[57_TomCat]

30. I believe it will happen...

because the party wants it to happen. It is in the platform and he will sign it if it arrives on his desk.

In my opinion the only reason the first AWB caused the damage it did was due to its close proximity to the election. This allowed the rhetoric to be fresh and a target easy to identify. Pass a new AWB in the first 100 days and the electorate as a whole will not care in two years while the 2nd supporters will never forget. There are not enough die hard 2nd ammendment supporters to make a big difference when the dirty deed is so old. Especially if they compromise a little like the old ban and allow for granfathering the current crop and maybe some allowances for cosmetic features. In time they will get what they want using the incremental method.

The incrementa assault has worked well in England and Australia and our own country has started down that road with state restictions in California and New York as examples.

I truly believe the party of my youth has left me behind. :(

[SteveM]

31. I don't think it will happen and here's why:

The gun-controllers have hung their hat on the AWB, but it's way to late for them because:
a) semi-auto carbines are now owned by 12-15 million Americans, way too big a voting bloc;
b) semi-auto carbines are the most popular center-fire rifle (in terms of sales) in the U.S.;
c) even the most rapid gun-banners know the result of high-visibility ban efforts at the polls;
d) semi-auto carbines are rapidly being re-configured for use as hunting weapons due to their weight, size, ergonomics, accuracy and lack of recoil. This in particular will blur the distinction between "assault" and "hunting" weapon which gun-controllers claim is a bright line. Kind of ironic that those who blurred the distinction between "assault weapon (semi-auto scary guns) and "assault rifles" (military full-auto) will suffer the same fate of hazy definitions.

What MAY happen is a shift away from the AWB toward efforts to ban the "smuggling of deadly assault weapons" from the U.S. to Mexican drug lords, using the same tried & true conflation which has not resulted in U.S. prohibition. In this manner, the gun-controllers can stay in the game for a while with help from the strongest component in the greatly weakened gun-control "movement:" MSM.

IMO, you cannot graduate from J-school today unless you pass a test wherein you successfully confuse full-auto with semi-auto.

Note also #26 above (Xela) where the gun-controllers are trying to go international. There is some room for growth here in that NAFTA and GATT both have weakened sovereignty severely in this (and other) countries. They may try to catch the wave of international corporatism.

[57_TomCat]

33. The point is that...

Obama is a supporter of the ban, he has political debts, the politics he supports will tend to be more compromising in the world arena and that is where the heavy hitter governments are in the anti-gun movements. In addition Obama is from a area where anti-gun sentiment is great and during his political career he has an extensive anti-gun voting record. Obama is anti-gun and has just recently advocated a more moderate line. He did not support Heller until Heller was decided. I fear it is nothing more than political posturing and his anti-gun personna will come to the top.

That is why I think he will sign and possibly advocate a new AWB.

[jabbothedog]

41. state restrictions will be next to go

With the gun lobby victory in Heller v/s DC, may groups are prepping their lawsuits to have local bans in several California cities, New York, Chicago over turned. And, based on the USSC ruling in Heller, the more restrictive of them probably will be.

Your assessment of "die hard 2nd Amendment" supporters is way off. They have longer memories than a d**n elephant. Obama has a good block of support by new Democrats from the south and midwest. He knows gun control will go over like a fart in church in those areas. It doesn't matter if it was the first 100 days; any Democrats from the south and midwest would lose their seats if they weren't recalled on the spot.

The party should focus on the middle class and the economy. A new AWB will have zero effect on crime (same as the last one) and will cost Obama his majority in Congress (same as the last time).

[aikoaiko]

32. Worried enough that I bought this LMT lower half today.

I hate not being able to trust Obama on this issue, but growing up in Chicago/Illinois politics and being indebted to the Joyce Foundation for his political start is a lot of baggage for any politician.

[jeepnstein]

34. Sweet!

What kind of uppper are you planning? Myself, I'm wanting a SBR.

[aikoaiko]

35. Yes, for the home defense carbine, I'd like a 10.5 inch upper with a suppressor.

No need to destroy my hearing if it every really needs to be used when it wouldn't be a good idea to put on hearing protection.

[JoeyMac]

37. Some good cans to look at

AAC SPR-M4 ... The best can on the planet bar none.
AAC M4-2000 ... Absolutely awesome can for the price.
AAC M4-1000 ... The best value under the sun.

Or you could go with the Tac-16 or a decent budget can.
Personally, I'd like to get a .30cal suppressor and use it on both 5.56mm and 7.62mm - seems simpler.

[aikoaiko]

38. thanks for the tips.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

40. I'm going to order one this week.

A shorty barrel that is.

David

[Brucie Kibbutz]

39. Very Nice!

I'd like to see pics of the completed rifle when you get the upper for it. :thumbsup: