Do guns still matter? (electoral analysis of the firearms issue)

[davepc]

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/06/1661613.aspx

From NBC's Carrie Dann

During the Democratic primary, when Barack Obama told donors in San Francisco that "bitter" voters in hardscrabble Pennsylvania "cling to their guns and religion," the words rang like music in his political opponents' ears. Obama foes hoped that the senator's inartful description of economically-strapped gun enthusiasts would cut his support from rural whites off at the knees.

The comment also put an exclamation point on Obama's record on guns, which has drifted to the center since his days as an Illinois state senator. As the general election heated up, the National Rifle Association announced an eye-popping $15 million ad campaign intended to serve as a loudspeaker for suspicions about Obama's alleged hidden intention to limit gun ownership.

But as the vote margins of the presidential race rolled in, the one-time wedge issue of the Second Amendment did not seem to pack the national-stage punch for which the influential gun lobby had aimed. Nationally, gun owners broke for McCain by almost the identical margin that they broke for Bush in 2004. But in the states where the NRA Political Victory Fund's toughest efforts against Obama were concentrated -- gun-rich regions in states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico -- Obama’s victory was decisive. The Democratic nominee won those states by eight, 11, and 15 points, respectively. Of the 11 states where the NRA's anti-Obama ads were reportedly aired, McCain won only one: Texas.

Down the ballot, the NRA backed all six of the Republican Senate candidates who lost to Democratic challengers. And in several high-profile House contests, NRA-backed candidates like Ed Tinsley, Bill Sali, Steve Chabot, and Phil English came up short.

But the ballot results also showed that advocacy of gun rights served as a cache calling card for some successful conservative Democrats. Many of the centrist Dems who fared well on Tuesday -- like Bobby Bright (AL-02), Harry Teague (NM-02), John Boccieri (OH-16) and Debbie Halvorson (IL-11) -- have high ratings from the NRA.

...

[thereismore]

1. Not if democrats are pro-personal gun ownership. nt

[damntexdem]

2. That's not the issue at all.

The Obama campaign downplayed guns as an issue. However, the issue of reasonable gun control remains an important one. Dems differ on what is 'reasonable gun control,' but I would hope we could come to some agreement on something short of the rabid position of the NRA.

[jody]

3. IMO we pro-RKBA Dems wanted to see a Dem president so we convinced ourselves Obama meant what he

said about not taking rifles, shotguns, and handguns and even interpreted his statement to mean he would not renew the assault weapons ban called for in our party platform.

That in spite of the fact he never repudiated the AWB in Biden's S.2237 bill or the more draconian revised AWB in H.R. 1022 sponsored by 67 Democratic congresspersons.

I hope we are right in expecting him to veto any bill renewing the assault weapons ban but I'm mindful of his comments in California on Proposition 8 banning same-sex marriage.

He said he opposed Prop 8 and encouraged voters to vote "no" against the ban on same-sex marriage but told another TV reporter that he believed marriage should only be between a man and woman.

Prop 8 passed with 52% voting to ban same-sex marriage where 70% of black voters voted for the ban and 51% of white voters voted against the ban.

CA's GLBT community are enraged and some DUers are threating to become single-issue voters. I find that interesting since we pro-RKBA Dems are frequently accused of being single-issue voters, perhaps by some of the same DUers who are now threating to become single-issue voters over GLBT rights.

As we pro-RKBA Dems have said ad nauseam, we must support all rights with our votes, all the time even though we may stress one specific right in our personal crusade as I do with RKBA.

[X_Digger]

4. Maybe like pro-choice Dems..

He said he opposed Prop 8 and encouraged voters to vote "no" against the ban on same-sex marriage but told another TV reporter that he believed marriage should only be between a man and woman.

Could be like pro-choice Dems who say they don't want the government legislating health care, but are personally against abortion.

[jody]

7. I accept personal opinions but when those statements are made by influential politicians

it shifts from personal discourse to efforts to move voters in a single direction.

No politician competitive at the state and national level can be so stupid as to believe her/his comment does not affect voter opinion.

Careless perhaps but not stupid and careless statements can be corrected.

[boozepusher]

5. You really think he will veto an AWB?

You need to read this, copied from www.change.gov Pay attention to the last sentence.

Address Gun Violence in Cities: As president, Barack Obama would repeal the Tiahrt Amendment, which restricts the ability of local law enforcement to access important gun trace information, and give police officers across the nation the tools they need to solve gun crimes and fight the illegal arms trade. Obama and Biden also favor commonsense measures that respect the Second Amendment rights of gun owners, while keeping guns away from children and from criminals who shouldn't have them. They support closing the gun show loophole and making guns in this country childproof. They also support making the expired federal Assault Weapons Ban permanent, as such weapons belong on foreign battlefields and not on our streets.

[jody]

6. Veto an AWB bill? Speculation is a waste of time, I'll just wait and see. n/t

[raimius]

8. no need for speculation

Obama already stated that he will support a new AWB. It was in his published plans all throughout the campaign.

[jody]

9. Please provide a link to a statement Obama made saying he supported a new AWB. n/t

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dimensio0]

11. It is not a "damn good plan".

The "assault weapons ban" is inherently irrational and unreasonable. There is no rational justification for re-enacting the ban.

[apocalypsehow]

12. Oh, it's an excellent plan alright - saving lives is always on the agenda as a "damn good plan."

I can't wait until it is re-enacted, and President Obama signs it into permanent law.

Now, go snivel about it to someone who cares.

[spin]

13. Please explain what the last assault weapons ban accomplished...

and how the new one will be an improvement.

Did the old AWB reduce the number of "assault weapons"?

Did it significantly reduce crime?

Why are the sales of all firearms including "assault weapons" increasing?

Do gun control measures actually increase the sales of firearms?

Why does restricting the sales of any type of firearm to honest reasonable citizens have an effect on criminal misuse of firearms?

Why targeting honest responsible citizens is a better idea than targeting the criminal element and drug gangs.

[apocalypsehow]

15. I agree with the leader of the Democratic Party and the new president-elect.

That you and your pals down here do not is about the least surprising discovery this morning since I noted the sun had once again come up.

[friendly_iconoclast]

20. Nice dodge...but you didn't answer the questions

If we wanted mindless support of political positions, we would be Republicans.

My nightmare is a AWB passed but ignored by the RW, and igniting a sort of neo-fascist version of
the PIRA. I'd imagine the brighter lights amongst the drug cartels are figuring out how to add
weapons to their wares. Gotta keep up with changing markets, you know.

Oh, and you know Gov. Howard Dean, architect of the "50 State" policy that enables us to gladly
say "President Obama"?

He did absolutely nothing to promote gun control while Governor of Vermont.
Vermont is still the bluest state, still got plenty of guns and still has the laxest gun
laws (save for Alaska) of any state.

I guess he's just out of touch with the zeitgeist or something...

[apocalypsehow]

21. Oh yes I did - you just didn't care for the answer.

And now you're changing the subject. Please regroup, and give it another try. You'll get there! :thumbsup:

[friendly_iconoclast]

25. Yours is the mindset that gave us the Patriot Act.

"The Constitution? Fuck it, we need to be safe. If you oppose this, you're helping the bad guys"

[apocalypsehow]

26. "Anybody here seen my old friend Godwin...can you tell me where he's gone?" Whoops: never mind.

He's been spotted.

Wait for it, wait for it...

"you're worse than Hitler."

[friendly_iconoclast]

27. We need a little more than "I'm so much more clever than you".

First some "no true Scotsman", and now straw men?

So tell us, O wise one, how *you* propose to get around Heller?

[apocalypsehow]

32. You and Slack sure do like to use that "no true Scotsman" analogy, huh?

Too bad neither of you has the slightest idea of what it really means, or where it truly applies in any given controversy.

The Readers Digest version of a "higher education" is touchingly pitiful, in an odd sort of way. But it is still a second-rate version of a third class mentality on display.

Please regroup, and try yet again. You'll get there! :thumbsup:

[DrCory]

39. How About That Pesky Heller Decision? N/T

[friendly_iconoclast]

44. I use it when someone like *you* gives us a "no true Scotsman" like the one here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=printer_friendly&forum=118&topic_id=190041&mesg_id=190237

I'm happy to call it when it appears. You also lied about my political beliefs in that, as well. Not nice at all.

You haven't mentioned your strawman arguments, like the one you gave here
in this exchange:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=printer_friendly&forum=118&topic_id=190041&mesg_id=190184

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=printer_friendly&forum=118&topic_id=190041&mesg_id=190185

where you also Godwinized yourself. You really need to try harder

[krispos42]

34. So you invoke Godwin's Law to cover your own butt?

:rofl:

[apocalypsehow]

23. And, before I forget, I just LOVE this:

"If we wanted mindless support of political positions"

Uh-huh. Support for the "political position" of the Democratic president-elect of the United States is now "mindless." You guys really flirt close to the edge, don't yah? Oh, well. At least it keeps most of you from pissing all over GD, or the other forums.


"we would be Republicans"

Uh, er, ahhhh. No comment.

[DrCory]

41. What are you infering?

"I agree with the leader of the Democratic Party and the new president-elect.
Posted by apocalypsehow
That you and your pals down here do not is about the least surprising discovery this morning since I noted the sun had once again come up"

Can we disagree with the leader of the Party and the President-Elect and still remain Democrats in your opinion?

[SteveM]

48. Pure culture war, pure hostility, pure addiction (nt)

[friendly_iconoclast]

22. The GOP told us that warrantless searches and surveillance was a "damn good plan"

It would 'save American lives'. And was signed into permanent law.

So, what's different about an AWB?

[apocalypsehow]

24. If I had an apple for every orange I've been offered down here....

:eyes:

[friendly_iconoclast]

28. I understand your need to win here at the Gungeon

After all, this the last battlegound for gun control. Every other site is on one side or the other.

And your ability to dodge and weave would do credit to the late Crazy Legs Hirsch.

But you need to get beyond "You're so dumb!" and "You're not real Democrats!"

And we already have a self-appointed political officer.

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[krispos42]

35. Pride goeth before the fall

This should be entertaining.

[friendly_iconoclast]

42. And a haughty countenance goeth before a departure, it seems

I doubt our factually challenged friend will be back here anytime soon, if at all.

[Name removed]

36. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DrCory]

38. Only White Males Have the RKBA?

"Because "RKBA" at the end of the day has never been about constitutional "rights" or hunting or lug nuts or pistol grips or any of that: it has been about a tiny core of scared, threatened white males who steadily see their privilege slipping away into the mists of history, and hating every minute of it.

[krispos42]

43. I actually tried to figure that out once

I did some math to see if a greater percentage of whites lived in pro-gun states than non-whites.


I came to the conclusion it's roughly equal.

[DrCory]

45. Are You Aware...

Of any studies which have produced gun ownership statistics by race?

[SteveM]

51. He's talking mists, I'm talking myths:

He says: "it has been about a tiny core of scared, threatened white males who steadily see their privilege slipping away..."

My goodness. Not an ounce of irony to go with his leaden-ed social outlook. If he could summon up a some intellectual curiosity (and a sense of humor), he would recognize that the South (long a bastion of gun-control, right up until my college days), has "lead" the way in expanding the right to keep and bear arms, esp. with regard concealed-carry and the dumping of Jim Crow-era gun laws.

Put another way, if white males were really that threatened, they would have done everything possible to restrict gun ownership.

So who's really afraid of Virginia (the "armed Negro") Wolf? White Southerners or "liberal" gun-controllers?

He should read www.georgiacarry.org (then local search for Heller Brief). But I rather suspect he will "try again" some pseudo-intellectual gyrations.

[benEzra]

29. Yeah, because protruding rifle handgrips are going to KILL US ALL!!!!111

Clue:

The shape of a rifle's stock has no bearing on its lethality. It does not cause the gun to magically aim itself. It is (take a breath) cosmetic and ergonomic, but does not affect capability or lack thereof.



Banning the most popular rifles in America, when only 3% of U.S. murders involve ANY type of rifle, is singularly irrational and counterproductive.

[apocalypsehow]

30. Clue: a Democratic Congress will reauthorize the AWB, and President Obama will sign it into law.

PERMANENTLY.

Get over it.

[krispos42]

37. And of course, since you're such an astute scholar of history....

...when we lose the House in 2010, you'll of course "get over it", right?



I mean, you won't make a single comment about it? Can I hold you to that?

[benEzra]

40. No, I don't think they will, and here's why:

(1) Congress is better informed about the issue now than in 1994, and there are a lot more pro-gun Dems in Congress now than then;
(2) popular support for an AWB is at least 10 points lower now than in 1994,
(3) rifles with modern styling were an enthusiasts' gun then, but they are the most popular rifles in America now; and
(4) the FBI UCR show that rifles are indisputably not a crime problem in the United States (rifles of any type are involved in only 3% of murders), so expenditure of political capital in order to ban;
(5) gun owners now have the Internet to stay informed and mobilize against bad bills.

MOST Dems, even those who intensely dislike civilian ownership of rifles with handgrips that stick out, realize that banning the most popular guns in America is simply not the most important issue on the agenda. You, on the other hand, obviously think it is; well, that's your right to think so. Clinton thought the same thing, and handed Congress to the repubs over it. But even he came to realize that that was a mistake. And I think there is a widespread recognition that we don't want to do something that boneheaded again.

Am I hedging my bets? Certainly. I was naive and idealistic enough in 1994 to think that a gun ban couldn't pass in America, and I got burned badly as a result. So, I won't make that mistake again---but I don't think a new ban will be successfully passed.

[SteveM]

49. Got that needle firmly in your artery? Again? (nt)

[krispos42]

33. Yes, irrational, restrictive laws passed in an atmosphere of fear-mongering...

...have worked so well for America, haven't they?



If Democrats are going to go down in flames in 2010 for passing a law I'd rather it was the legalization of marijuana for industrial and recreational purposes. Unlike a feel-good ban on cosmetic features, such a law would actually save lives and make the country a better place.

[SteveM]

47. All DUers should read your comments and ask: "Is the issue dead?" (nt)

[apocalypsehow]

16. Dead Man's Curve:

"I was cruisin' in my Stingray late one night,
When an XKE pulled up on the right
He rolled down the window of his shiny new Jag,
And challenged me then and there to a drag
I said "You're on buddy -- my mill's running fine,
Let's come off the line now at Sunset and Vine
But I'll go you one better, if you've got the nerve,
Let's race all the way -- to Dead Man's Curve"

(Dead Man's Curve) is no place to play
(Dead Man's Curve) you'd best keep away
(Dead Man's Curve) I can hear 'em say:
"Won't come back from Dead Man's Curve"

The street was deserted late Friday night;
We were buggin' each other while we sat out the light
We both popped the clutch when the light turned green,
You shoulda heard the whine from my screamin' machine!
I flew past La Brea, Schwab's and Crescent Heights,
And all the Jag could see were my six taillights
He passed me at Doheny then I started to swerve,
But I pulled her out and there we were - at Dead Man's Curve

(Dead Man's Curve) is no place to play
(Dead Man's Curve... )
(Spoken): "Well, the last thing I remember, Doc,
I started to swerve
And then I saw the Jag slide into the curve
I know I'll never forget that horrible sight,
I guess I found out for myself that everyone was right"

Won't come back from Dead Man's Curve...
(Dead Man's Curve) is no place to play
(Dead Man's Curve) you'd best keep away
(Dead Man's Curve) I can hear 'em say:

"Won't come back from Dead Man's Curve"
(Dead Man's Curve) is no place to play
(Dead Man's Curve) you'd best keep away
(Dead Man's Curve) I can hear 'em say:
"Won't come back from Dead Man's Curve"

(fade)

[spin]

18. Brings back memories....

Youtube version:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Anq4wdZc2Ow&feature=related

I did a lot of street racing in those days. Damn lucky to have survived.

[apocalypsehow]

19. '77 Monte Carlo here. It was a rolling environmental disaster, V-8, engine bloc as big as a Prius -

an entire Prius. Lifters that had to have oversized shims. An, *ahem*, "replacement" manifold that would've made the EPA quite cranky. It probably had the Carbon footprint of a small industrialized country all by it's lonesome, and I'd never own such a socially irresponsible piece of rolling stock today.

But...shit, I loved that car.

[joshcryer]

17. Saw the national news last night and a gun store owner laughed because people had Obama pins on.

It was pretty hilarious.

[Rancid Crabtree]

14. Wasn't the South once a Democratic stronghold?...

...Here in the U.P., guns matter, though apparently not as much as they mattered four years ago...our rep, Stupak, had an "A" rating from the NRA, as did his challenger, a state rep, Casperson...or Casperich...Kasperich maybe...anyway, they both had an "A" rating...although Stupak voted for BCFR, like McCain, both of our Democratic senators, and a majority of Dems in both houses of Congress...it was an issue for some, as a handful of letters-to-the-editor found their way into the local paper...as did a few who argued that Obama wouldn't take away anyone's gun...moi?...I first voted for a loser back in 1980, again in 1984...(and had fun trying to fund a college edjukation and being called a "double-dipper" after applying for various grants never received, though my blood plasma was in demand)...voted for a winner in '92, again in '96...but I suspect our fearless leaders will once again begin to dump on guns in general and gun crimes...while ignoring the fact that most of those crimes could have been prevented had we not subscribed to a revolving door justice system...and who knows, maybe gun owners will get behind voter registration drives and turnout at the polls and make changes...maybe some of them still believe votes count...and maybe what happened in...was it '94?...will happen again...'Christ, Marx, Wood and Wei...let us to this perfect day...'

[Testament]

46. Depends how far back you want to go.

64 back, most of the South went to the Democrats, 68 was interesting with an independent in the race that got a bit of the South, '76 with Carter got all of the South except VA, then only Georgia went in '80, lets not talk about '84 or '88, Clinton got 5/13 in '92 and '96, and Obama got 3/13 last week.

Then again, things were a little different in the party before JFK, and unions were more mainstream and liked than they are today.

[Tankman1989]

50. Guns always matter in this country

I need a name for this poem.. Maybe "Death of a Great Nation"??

If you like this, PLEASE openly post it on other forums you frequent.
****************************************************************
First came the ban on automatic assault weapons,
I did not speak up,
Because I didn't need such a weapon.

Then came the ban on “assault” weapons and “assault” ammunition,
Again I remained silent,
For I had no quarrels with anyone;
I felt the Police were there to “Serve and protect”,
The government had a strong military in which I could trust.

Next came the ban on pistols and newly made rifles,
I kept my mouth shut,
As this made no difference because I already owned these.

Finally, martial law was declared because of an act of "terror”;
A new constitution was forged, severely limiting rights of individuals;
Gone was the right to free speech, free press, the right to own property, the right to bear arms,
Gone were States rights and Habeas Corpus, the right to a speedy, just, fair trial
Gone were our beloved Republics, Commonwealths, States and our Democracy.

The time for action through words was gone,
It was time to stand and fight,
But it was too late,
We were helpless because we had no worthy guns with which to fight.

Only then, when the government took actions against The People,
Did I truly understand the reasoning for the Second Amendment;
The right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

Encroachment upon one (gun or person) is an encroachment upon all!

Tankman1989
Copyright 2008 All rights reserved :D:
Please distribute freely
******************************************************

What is “Homeland Defense”?
It is the enemy of that nation saying: “You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.” Isoroku Yamamoto WWII - Fleet Admiral and Commander-in-Chief of the Imperial Japanese Navy
______________________________________
-This is what happens when a society isn't allowed to own guns: Tiananmen Square Massacre – Tankman1989