Texas breakdown of VPC report..

[X_Digger]

If you haven't seen the VPC "study", it's worth reading for a good example of spin (http://www.vpc.org/studies/ccw2009.pdf)

Statistical did a great breakdown for Florida, so I'll attempt the same for Texas.

Texas is also a 'shall issue' state, so if your record is clean, you pass a test after 8 hours of instruction, and pass a live fire test, the state must issue you a permit to carry concealed.

Texas provides the statistics for total number of permit holders, revocations, and convictions of CHL holders, as well as the general public crime rate.

Number of licenses issued, denied, and revoked-http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/demographics.htm

Rate for convictions of permit holders- http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/convrates.htm

Rate for convictions overall- http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/pages/crimestatistics.htm

The brady bunch "study" is limited in scope from May 2007 to April 2009 based on news reports (in the first two sections). The "study" doesn't list any officer shootings or private citizens shot by CHL holders in Texas. However, they do have a section for Texas in section three of their report.

They focus on stats from 1998-2002-

Beginning in 1998, the VPC conducted four studies analyzing the operation of Texas’ concealed carry law. The final VPC study, License to Kill IV: More Guns, More Crime, was completed in 2002 and incorporated the findings of the previous three studies. The study detailed 5,314 arrests of concealed handgun permit holders subsequent to licensure, as reported to the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS). Incidents involving concealed handgun permit holders included: 41 arrests for murder or attempted murder; 14 arrests for kidnapping/false imprisonment; 79 arrests for rape/sexual assault; 279 arrests for alleged assault/aggravated assault with a deadly weapon; 1,315 arrests for driving while intoxicated; 60 arrests for indecency with children; 404 drug-related arrests; 134 individual arrests for sexual misconduct; 19 arrests for impersonating a police officer or public servant; and, eight arrests for arson.

Let's look at the convictions in TX for 1998-2002-

eta: (See first reply, tables listed there due to formatting)

Why the disparity in data from VPC vs DPS? Conviction rates vs arrest rates- As of April 30, 2004, for those CHL holders who were arrested for violent crime, 19% have been convicted for the crime for which they were arrested, 33% have been convicted of a lesser crime, and 39% have been adjudicated as not-guilty. (the missing 9% was cases pending).

Let's take murder and assault-

Murders committed by CHL holders 1998-2002 - 2
Murders committed total 1998-2002 - 6435

Overall murder rate in TX 1998-2002 (avg) 6.2/100k
Murder rate by CHL holders (avg) .0095/100k

Assaults committed by CHL holders 1998-2002 - 206
Assaults committed by total 1998-2002 - 377936

Overall assault rate in TX 1998-2002 (avg) 365/100k
Assault rate by CHL holders (avg) .99/100k

So yeah, CHL holders aren't much of a danger in Texas, either, compared to the general public.

[X_Digger]

1. Tables..

source:
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/convrates.htm

Offense						totals 1998-2002
abandon child / criminal negligence		2
aggravated assult with a deadly weapon		18
aggravated sexual assault			1
aggravated sexual assault / child		9
aggravated robbery				2
assault causes bodily injury			148
assault causes bodily injury family violence	40
burglary of building				2
burglary of habitation				6
deadly conduct					62
deadly conduct / discharge weapon		1
indency with a child sexual contact		11
indecent exposure				14
murder						2
murder under influence of sudden passion	1
public lewdness					12
place weapons prohibited			1
prohibited weapon / switchblade/knuckles	5
sexual assault					9
terroristic threat				22
unl carry of a handgun by a lic holder		34
unl carry of a handgun by a lic holder alcohol	1
unl carrying of a weapon			171
unl carrying of a weapon on alcohol premises	4
	
total- 578


source:
http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/demographics.htm

			1998		1999		2000		2001		2002
Number of permittees	186966		211769		205189		219756		224172	
Population		19760000	20044000	20851820	21334855	21723220

[iverglas]

5. Wow

Now there are 578 people I'd love to be authorized to carry firearms around in public somewhere near me!

Not.

Real law-abiding folks ...

[X_Digger]

6. You assume that each incident is a different person?

Law might be your strong suit, math sure isn't.

[iverglas]

8. well my goodness

You're the one offering the numbers.

Why don't YOU tell us what they mean?

Not my job.

[spin]

2. Thanks for the research. K&R (n/t)

[jody]

3. Thanks, such work helps dispel the lie that the Democratic Party is all gun-grabbers and that

the truth is anti-gun groups like the Violence Policy Center and Brady Foundation funded by the Joyce Foundation and Annenberg Foundation have a personal agenda to take away a natural, inherent, inalienable/unalienable right enumerated in our Constitution.

[eqfan592]

4. K&R. Thanks for the great work!!

:kick:

[iverglas]

7. I'm still waiting

Murders committed by CHL holders 1998-2002 - 2
Murders committed total 1998-2002 - 6435

Overall murder rate in TX 1998-2002 (avg) 6.2/100k
Murder rate by CHL holders (avg) .0095/100k

Assaults committed by CHL holders 1998-2002 - 206
Assaults committed by total 1998-2002 - 377936

Overall assault rate in TX 1998-2002 (avg) 365/100k
Assault rate by CHL holders (avg) .99/100k

When are you going to provide us with the rates for CHL holders vs. the rates for individuals with no criminal convictions, no history of mental illness and no involvement in drug trafficking?

CHL holders BY DEFINITION have no criminal convictions, no history of mental illness and no involvement in drug trafficking ... or at least none that were discovered when they applied.

I keep waiting for you to live up to your chosen name even an inch. Flinging random fruit at a number just isn't "statistical".

-edit- oops, it's a different person, pulling the same stunt. Well, you haven't done much digging, is all I can say. Digging up rotten fruit doesn't take a lot of work.

[X_Digger]

9. The implicit (or explicit) implication is..

that CCW/CHL holders are 'dangerous'. By showing that they're less 'dangerous' than the general public, their assertion crumbles.

"The conclusion is inescapable that state 'shall issue' concealed handgun laws sanction the carrying of concealed handguns by many dangerous individuals."

When are you going to provide us with the rates for CHL holders vs. the rates for individuals with no criminal convictions, no history of mental illness and no involvement in drug trafficking?

Why would I? What's the relevance? Who would collect such stats? I can imagine an inverse of recitivism used (ie, if 75% of convicted criminals had a previous record, 25% didn't) but no report I've seen breaks down the number or type of crimes that 25% commit.

CHL holders BY DEFINITION have no criminal convictions, no history of mental illness and no involvement in drug trafficking ... or at least none that were discovered when they applied.

So they're likely to not break the law, yes? (assuming past behavior is a reliable indicator of future behavior).