VPC studies on gun control. Fact or fiction?

[shadowrider]

There are supporters both ways. Why do you think it's fact, or, why do you think it's fiction?

[The Magistrate]

1. Are You Sure You want To Engage On the Character Of Sources Cited, Sir?

A very large proportion of the sites cited and linked to by devotees of fire-arms here are hard right and ultra-conservative in character. They receive a local pass down here, simply because it would not be too easy to find sources on that side of the question that were of a different character: if the same rules and customs of enforcement employed in, say, the General Discussion forum, were applied down here, a great many items on your side of this would be locked down out of hand, and the repeated citation of such sources viewed as indicating 'something not quite Chippewa' might be going on.

http://www.vpc.org/fact_sht/ccwprivatecitizens.pdf

When you can find some factual error in the news accounts compiled here, feel free to point it out.

[GreenStormCloud]

14. It is mostly a case of misuse of statistics to tell a half-truth.

The VPC began counting in October of 2007, 2.5 years ago. By using a multi-year count they get the number as high as possible. They also count killings that were not done by firearms in an attempt to inflate the number. They count shootings that took place in the home, where having a CCW is not an issue since you don't need a CCW to have a gun at home.

The VPC would be more honest is they used a yearly count, used only firearms killings that in which the CCW was a factor.

The VPC has often been caught in other inaccuracies on other firearms topics.

[The Magistrate]

15. My Citing Of It, Sir

Was only as a convenient, sourced compilation of all deaths in which persons with 'concealed carry' papers were even remotely involved, over a recent period. My only interest in it was to demonstrate that there were indeed cases of unlawful killing by such persons in circumstances which suggested an eagerness to use a fire-arm on somebody. We both know enough of life and our fellow humans to recognize there are people who earnestly desire to do that, and that some of them do not as yet have police records.

[GreenStormCloud]

17. A few out of millions.

Take any sufficiently large group of individuals and you will be able to find some misfits. Current estimates of the number of CCW holders in the nation is between 5 to 8 million. Out of that many people, there will be some bad apples. None of us here deny that. We do claim that the bad ones are extreme exceptions. VPC attempts to use a few rare ones to smear the entire group.

[The Magistrate]

19. One White Crow, Sir, Disproves the Statement 'All Crows Are Black'

Someone challenged me to demonstrate a statement had a factual basis. It was not hard to do.

[PavePusher]

32. And Where, Sir, has Anyone Claimed that All CHP Holders are Angels? n/t

You "refute" an unmade claim.

[The Magistrate]

33. The Exchange Begins Here, Sir

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=118x315383#315562

My day today has included long stretches of waiting for spot-coats of paint to dry in course of a craft project.....

[tburnsten]

42. One of those California shooters didn't have a CCW permit

he had some form of California occupational permit based on his work as a security guard, not even remotely the same as a CCW permit the way the entire rest of the nation uses it. That must have been basically a permit to openly carry a loaded gun while on the clock.

A CCW permit is a permit to carry a firearm for defense purposes in the manner that you see fit, since government employees are not the best arbiters of how you should do everything.

[Euromutt]

43. That was Richard Tauch, see my post #35

In addition, there was another shooting in California that involved a guy (Aubrey Berry) with a Georgia Firearm License. Since California doesn't honor the permits of any other state (and doesn't issue non-resident permits), the guy was carrying illegally. And I do not believe for a second that the guy honestly thought his Georgia permit was valid in California; if it had been Virginia, South Carolina or Nevada (none of which honor GFLs either), that would have been halfway plausible, but not California.

[Euromutt]

35. California, Richard Vithya TAUCH

Circumstances: On January 19, 2010, Richard Vithya Tauch allegedly shot and killed his ex-girlfriend Jenny Van Sor and her new boyfriend Wen Chao. The shooting occurred at the senior facility where Chao’s father lived. Tauch had a permit to carry a firearm as a security guard. Tauch was booked for investigation of the double murder and held in lieu of $1 million bail.

From the California Bureau of Security and Investigative Services (BSIS) Security Guard Fact Sheet (http://www.bsis.ca.gov/forms_pubs/guard_fact.shtml):

You may not carry a gun on duty without having been issued a firearm permit by the Bureau. Also, a firearm permit issued by the Bureau does not authorize you to carry a concealed weapon. You may not carry a concealed weapon on duty without a Concealed Weapons Permit (CCW) issued by local authorities, nor carry a caliber handgun not listed on your firearm permit.

Emphases in original. A California security guard firearm permit is not a concealed weapons permit in any sense. The VPC's claim that it is is therefore a factual error.

[The Magistrate]

36. Fair Enough, Sir: That is One Factual Error

As a matter of curiousity, since you will be familiar this particular matter, was the man employed at the facility where the shooting took place, and working at the time? If the answers are yes, then if he carried the weapon openly it was at least legal for him to carry it; if either answer is no, than it was not. Obviously, the degree of error in listing the incident in that tally is greater in the latter case than in the former.

[Euromutt]

37. I don't know, but I doubt it

I don't know of too many senior housing facilities, nursing homes, and the like that employ armed security (banks and casinos are the more usual clients), plus it seems a little too coincidental that that the guy would be working at the facility where his ex-girlfriend's now boyfriend's father happened to be living. It seems more likely that Tauch stalked her, which is also, according to the original article (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/01/man-accused-of-gunning-down-exgirlfriend-and-companion-in-monterey-park-senior-center.html), what the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Dept. suspect.

I understand that there some leeway in that it's permitted for a security guard to be carrying while he is in uniform between home and work, but I doubt that applied in this case.

[Euromutt]

38. Additionally, the problem with the VPC's "study" is that its thesis in incoherent

If the VPC's point were to prove only that some CCW killers are responsible for homicides, be it through malice (murder) or negligence (manslaughter), then most of the incidents listed would be valid examples.

However, the VPC has not been content to leave it at that. From the VPC's press release when "CCW Killers" was launched (http://www.vpc.org/press/0911ccw.htm):

Kristen Rand, legislative director for the Violence Policy Center, states, "This new web site makes clear that contrary to the false promises of the gun lobby the simple and deadly fact is that state concealed handgun systems are arming cop-killers, mass shooters, and other murderers."

The thesis, then, is not merely that some CCW permit holders commit homicides, but that these killings were made possible by their being issued CCW permits; and, by extension, that these killings would have been prevented by not issuing CCW permits. That contention sets the bar significantly higher for including incidents in the list. For example, it is hard to see how Tony Villegas (Florida) would have been prevented from strangling Melissa Britt to death by not having a CCW permit. One must also discard all homicides that occurred in locations where state or local law did not require a CCW permit to possess a concealed firearm (e.g. in the shooter's home); all homicides that occurred in locations where the shooter's permit did not allow him to carry a firearm (e.g. Aubrey BERRY, whose Georgia Firearm License did not allow him to carry in California, where the killing occurred); and all homicides committed with non-concealable firearms (i.e. rifles and shotguns).

The problem is that Rand and Sugarmann want to have it both ways: they want to argue that CCW permits facilitate homicides that, absent those permits, would have been preventable, but they don't want to discard any instances of CCW permit holders being involved in a homicide.

[X_Digger]

2. You mean like..

.. including suicides in that "report"?

.. or including acquittals and dismissals?

.. or including the CHL holder's child shooting themselves with a parent's gun, access to which is not dependent on having a CHL?

Yeah, full of shit.

[shadowrider]

3. Yup, that one

[The Magistrate]

5. A Compilation Of Killings, Sir

Should include those items, particularly suicides and instances where no criminal liability was found. In fact, it would be dishonest to do otherwise. A compilation giving only instances where criminal behavior was clearly establshed that ommitted instances where the behavior was lawful would certainly leave a distorted impression, just as the reverse would do. Instances of suicide, of accident, and injury owing to a child accessing a weapon, speak to the reliability, whether in terms of mental stability, or in the employment of prudent or even legal precautions to keep a weapon safely. One of the claims often made by persons who are devotees of concealed carry laws is that the persons who receive such permits are a cut above even the average gun-owner, in terms of stability and prudent judgement.

[X_Digger]

6. If that is your claim, then compare to the general public.

Depending on the crime, rates of incidence by permit holders are 8x - 10x less likely than the general public.

As far as I know, there are no studies regarding accidents involving concealed carry permit holders, so there is nothing to indicate that they are more or less 'reliable' than the general public.

[The Magistrate]

7. Extract Felons And Persons With Appreciable Criminal Records From the General Public, Sir

Then see how the figures stack up.

Take then the further step of extracting those persons who do not possess fire-arms from consideration.

Try for a comparison of people who simply own a fire-arm with people who make a practice of carrying one with them everywhere they go....

[X_Digger]

8. Shall we compare to police, then?

CCW holders still come out better.

Here ya go, one quick google later.. http://www.prisoners.com/screport.pdf

[The Magistrate]

9. That, Sir, is A Report of An Investigation of Sexual Misconduct By One State Trooper In Pennsylvania

What moves you to think it demonstrates that police commit more crime with fire-arms on a per capita basis than civilians with 'concealed carry' permits escapes me; indeed, that question is so far from the contents of this report that it would be laughable, were it not so sad you seem honestly to believe it is evidence in favor of your stated proposition. There is in it mention of one gun crime by a state trooper, an act of menacing directed against a former girl-friend, and that is all.

[X_Digger]

10. Just a quick google.. did you actually read it or just skim?

The study denotes systematic under-reporting, under-investigation, and under-prosecution of crimes committed by PA State Police.

Yes it was instigated because of one high-profile case, but the incidents identified by the Bureau of Professional Responsibility and analyzed by the Inspector General in this report are numerous.

[The Magistrate]

11. Read, Sir: Rapidity At That Is One Of My Curses In This Unhappy Passage Here Below

All the cases gone into relate to the area of sexual harrassment of the public by troopers, with a few instances in which the member of the public is an officer's significant other; the topic at hand is killings with fire-arms. No such are mentioned in the report.

[X_Digger]

12. The topic is crime committed by police.

Now having seen the citations in the previously linked article, compare to:

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/ConvictionRatesReport2006.pdf

(Obviously, not Pennsylvania, but it's the closest comparison that can be made with easily obtainable links.)

[The Magistrate]

13. And This Relates, Sir, To Unlawful Killings By Police Officers How?

The subject has been from the begining unlawful killings with fire-arms by persons carrying fire-arms legally who are not police. You made the statement such persons did so at a much lesser rate than the general public, and even than the police. When invited to adjust the 'general public' figures to the universe of legal gun owners, you chose instead to concentrate on the police angle. So far, you have yet to provide the slightest hint at a per capita rate for unlawful killings with fire-arms by police officers. For that matter, you have not even brought forward any information on per capita rates for criminal offenses by police oficers, though it is not that broader catagory which is at issue.

[X_Digger]

18. You seem to have missed this from my second post in this thread..

Depending on the crime, rates of incidence by permit holders are 8x - 10x less likely than the general public.

If you failed to follow my expansion into general crime statistics, do try and keep up.

Do I need to find the same number of suicides(http://www.newser.com/story/38989/ny-taser-cop-commits-suicide.html), illegal homicides by cops (Sean Bell, Amadou Diallo, etc), cops kids shooting themselves (http://www.mynews3.com/story.php?id=15089), cops having a negligent discharge that injures (or kills) himself or another (http://xavierthoughts.blogspot.com/2007/09/charges-filed-in-austin-haley-shooting.html), cops involved in road rage (http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10123/1055231-100.stm#ixzz0muJmkhs1) ?

We're talking about ~100 incidents out of 6M permit holders. There are approx 850,000 full time federal, state, city, university and college, metropolitan and non-metropolitan county, and other law enforcement officers in the United States. (http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos160.htm)

With 7.5 times as many CHL / CCW holders as cops, I'd have to find about 13 incidents to have the same rate.

I've found six in this post. Do you honestly think I can't find eight more in short order? And plenty more past eight? (Which would prove my point that the rate for cops is higher than CHL holders.)

[The Magistrate]

20. You can Go Wherever You want, Sir: It has No Bearing On My Stickng To the Topic At Hand

For what it is worth, you do not seem to understand the concept of 'illegal killing'. When someone is acquitted of a charge of murder or manslaughter, it means no illegal killing was committed....

[X_Digger]

21. So you agree, then, that the VPC including those in this report was disingenuous, yes?

Glad we agree on that.

[X_Digger]

24. Yet you supported their inclusion in the VPC report, why is that?

Sauce for the goose is terrible for the gander?

quoting you:

A Compilation Of Killings, Sir Should include those items, particularly suicides and instances where no criminal liability was found.

[The Magistrate]

25. Such An Inclusive Listing, Sir, Gives A Sense of Proportion Among The Various Classes

As was noted in the comment you have made a selective exerpt from:

"A Compilation Of Killings, Sir

Should include those items, particularly suicides and instances where no criminal liability was found. In fact, it would be dishonest to do otherwise. A compilation giving only instances where criminal behavior was clearly establshed that ommitted instances where the behavior was lawful would certainly leave a distorted impression, just as the reverse would do. Instances of suicide, of accident, and injury owing to a child accessing a weapon, speak to the reliability, whether in terms of mental stability, or in the employment of prudent or even legal precautions to keep a weapon safely. One of the claims often made by persons who are devotees of concealed carry laws is that the persons who receive such permits are a cut above even the average gun-owner, in terms of stability and prudent judgement."

[X_Digger]

26. Yet you complain about including them for cops, eh?

How very hypocritical.

Again, do you think it would be hard for me to find at least eight more comparable cases of cops doing the same things that those in the VPC report did?

Wouldn't that then prove that the rate of cops performing the same actions is higher than those reported in the VPC "report"?

[The Magistrate]

28. No Complaint, Sir, Merely An Observation That A Man Who Is Acquitted Has Not Killed Illegally

And if one is comparing rates or numbers of of illegal killings, that is what one should compare.

No statement of mine claims all the killing listed in the compilation are illegal killings; in fact, not even the organization that compiled the list states all the killings listed are illegal killings.

What you are attempting to maintain and prove is beside the point in any case. That there are some instances of illegal killing by 'concealed carry' permit holders establishes that there are illegal killings which would not have taken place without some people receiving the permts, and habitually going armed. Even if some other identifiable group contributes a greater number of ilegal kilings, that does not alter this.

[X_Digger]

29. Those goalposts must be heavy. Feel free to set them down anytime.

We were comparing actions comparable to those listed by the VPC with other groups. First you said that comparing to the general public wasn't good enough, and now you're saying that comparing to cops is 'beside the point'. Funny, that.

[The Magistrate]

31. There Has Been No Change, Sir, Not Even In Your Mis-Understanding Of What Constitutes Evidence

[X_Digger]

40. Your disingenuousness is limitless.

But that's okay, having peeled away your bloviating rhetoric to the core point ("People who find trouble are generally looking for it") all can see what you're really about.

The fact that I can find proportionally more incidents of cops behaving badly than CHL holders (probably numerically too if I tried harder) speaks for itself.

Oh, here's number seven..

http://www.wxyz.com/news/story/Family-in-Murder-Suicide-Issues-Statement/8Sf_CD-CC0KSmRGfKqZmIA.cspx

"CANTON TWP., Mich. (WXYZ) - The family of a Detroit Police detective, who witnesses say shot his wife before turning the gun on himself, has issued a statement."

And number eight..

http://gothamist.com/2009/01/13/off-duty_cop_kills_wife_then_self_i.php

"An off duty NYPD lieutenant fatally shot and stabbed his wife and then turned his gun on himself yesterday afternoon in their Centereach home. Francis Cole, 48, a 19-year NYPD vet who worked at the 68th Precinct, first stabbed wife Elena, 46, in the chest and then shot her in the head. "

[spin]

22. I've got a 22 year study for your review ...

and it's updated monthly.

It's called the Concealed Weapon / Firearm Summary Report and is published by the state of Florida. You can review the report at: http://licgweb.doacs.state.fl.us/stats/cw_monthly.html

The report covers a time frame between October 1, 1987 to April 30, 2010.

A quick summary of the report:

1)In the time period covered 1,766,068 Concealed weapons permits were issued and currently 718,270 are currently valid.

2)After the permits were issued, 4,805 were revoked for a crime committed after the license was issued.

3) Only 167 of the revoked licenses involved a crime in which a firearm was used.

Unfortunately, there is no breakdown on what crimes were committed, but the crimes would include many that didn't involve a death or injury caused by a firearm.

[The Magistrate]

27. Much Appreciated, Sir

It would be nice to have a more detailed breakdown of course.

[Euromutt]

41. Why not extract 15-30 year-old males as well?

I mean, if you claim the right to discard the data points that are inconvenient to your argument, you can "prove" anything you damn well please. The question at hand is whether the issuing of CCW permits creates a significant public safety hazard, i.e. would the average member of the public be at significantly less risk of becoming the victim of a violent crime if, all other things being equal, there was no way to legally carry a concealed firearm in public? You can't reasonably exclude people statistically most likely to commit violent crimes from the equation, because in practice, members of the general public are going to be exposed to these people in the course of their everyday lives.

All right, obviously, having a way whereby people can legally carry a concealed handgun in public--a very small number of whom will abuse that power--poses a slightly increased risk to public safety. But that has to be weighed about the benefit to public safety that is derived from it. And when a violent crime against a CCW permit holder is not completed because she successfully used his/her firearm in self-defense, even though the permit holder in question is the only direct beneficiary, it is a benefit to public safety since CCW permit holders are also members of the public.

[GreenStormCloud]

16. In most states the screening for CCW does select better citizens.

Texas is fairly typical in its screening. The person must have a clean record. They can't have any felony convictions, can't be charged with class B misdemeanor, must be current on child support payments, not chemically dependent, not behind on taxes, no restraining orders, must be legally able to own a firearm under federal law, must take the class and pass it, must pass a shooting proficiency test, be fingerprinted, background investigated by FBI, and pay the fee.

All of that does screen out those who are likely to misuse guns.

[Euromutt]

34. In fairness to the VPC, they do substract acquittals from the statistics

Though that doesn't explain why they keep the descriptions of those incidents in the report.

And it doesn't entirely compensate for the fact that there's at least one incident of a guy who wasn't a CCW permit holder (a California security guard, whose permit only allowed him to carry openly while in uniform), or the fact that the VPC's wields an idiosyncratic definition of "mass shooting" that primarily seems to be intended to grossly inflate the number of incidents, and even then the VPC can't stick to its own criterium.

But we've been over that several times already.

[jazzhound]

4. As of April 8th 2005 the VPC **described itself** as *the most aggressive

gun control group* in the nation --- essentially admitting that they are the equivalent to the fox serving as security consultant in henhouse design.

Their position in pushing the myth that a significant number of murders are committed by citizens who "snap" is in and of itself enough to disqualify them as a neutral observer.

Their close affiliation with the CDC sends up a very bright flare as well.

Any number of honest scientific papers expose what the VPC is all about. Here's one of them:

http://www.hoffmang.com/firearms/kates/Myth_of_the_Virgin_Killer-Kates-Polsby.pdf

Bottom line ---- the VPC is to the gun control/gun violence debate what Fox News is to fair and balanced news reporting.

[Euromutt]

30. It still does

That exact phrase can still be found on its "about" page: http://www.vpc.org/aboutvpc.htm

[jody]

23. VPC unashamedly wants to ban all guns & its publications use & misuse stats to support that agenda.

They receive funds in various ways from Joyce and Annenberg foundations both of which are avowedly anti-RKBA.

Joyce funds a NORC poll with distorted questions about firearms depending upon respondent's ignorance to give biased answers that obstensibly support more gun-control.

That's blatantly obvious but VPC still cites Joyce's funded NORC poll in its publications.

As reported on several DU threads, Obama was on Joyce's board and held positions with Annenberg.

I don't believe an anti-abortion association would select a pro-life person for their association and I don't believe candidate Obama when he said "I believe in the Second Amendment. I believe in people's lawful right to bear arms. I will not take your shotgun away. I will not take your rifle away. I won't take your handgun away."

[benEzra]

39. How about compare the VPC's rhetoric about modern-looking civilian rifles...

to the fact that all rifles combined account for only 2.6% of murders, less than half as many as fists and feet.

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/data/table_20.html

The VPC exists to keep the corporate media in a state of hysteria regarding lawful gun ownership. That's what they're paid to do.