Are the Canadian elections today?

[PopeyeII]

Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

[iverglas]

1. indeed they are

I'm about to go out to vote and get sworn in as a scrutineer, and then I'll go back at 5 for the 5 to 9 shift of scrutineering, and to be "in for the count" when the doors are locked.

I'm not sure what you folks call a scrutineer -- I'm my party's representative in the polling station for one of the several polls located there. Officially, I observe the procedure, and object if I see any irregularities. The Liberals in this riding cannot be assumed to be beyond casting votes for dead people, e.g.; it has certainly happened in elections here in the last couple of decades, although the current Liberal candidate, whom I know personally, isn't really part of the corrupt old machine here. Unofficially, I keep track of who has voted and pass the list of voter numbers off to our runner, who takes it back to the zone house where it is checked against the list of "voters of interest" ;) so that those who have not yet voted can be chased after and got out to the poll.

My particular riding is pretty much in the bag for the NDP, lucky me. Certainly no chance of the Conservatives winning. To be honest, I couldn't name the Conservative candidate, but that's because I have not done my duty and gone banging on doors this time around. That makes it about the only election since 1968 when I haven't, but at least I'm going to be in at the end.

This year, the news blackout in the West on results from the East has been struck down. How Ontario votes is going to be important, both in terms of actual numbers in the House and in terms of influencing BC votes. I sincerely hope that if the loony protest voters that BC is full of see too many seats going Conservative in Ontario, they'll bite the bullet and vote for the NDP in our traditional ridings there, at least, or for the smelly Liberals if that's what's needed to defeat a local Conservative candidate.

Some races could end up being very close, and needing recounts before the final results in some constituencies are known. This could even mean that the outcome of the election isn't certain for a few days, if it ends up being close. Weekend predictions in the newspaper were for a Liberal minority govt -- where the Liberals get more seats than any other party, but not enough for a majority of seats in the House.

The Conservative support, that had risen throughout the campaign, was obviously extremely soft, and it had falled sharply in the last week, with the NDP continuing to rise. Of course it is the riding breakdown that counts. For instance, in the last govt, the Liberals had a solid majority of seats in the House, but something like 44% of the popular vote nation-wide. The NDP can have 22% of the vote, which we had last time I looked, but this would never translate into 22% of the seats. Which is why we have said that our support for a Liberal minority govt would be conditional on introducing legislation to provide for some form of proportional representation in the House of Commons.

The Liberals getting a plurality but not a majority would mean that the Liberals would have to dance to the NDP tune in order to pass their legislation and stay in power. This is the best-case-scenario outcome, of course. Minority govts in the past have brought us excellent things, like the Canada Pension Plan and the Canada Health Act.

A Conservative minority govt would not likely be able to stay standing. The one we've had in living memory, Joe Clark's in the mid-70s, collapsed after 6 months. Neither the Liberals nor the NDP would support any of what it's promised to do (the NDP on principle, the Liberals out of their own lust for power). And the Bloc Québécois won't say yay or nay to supporting any party, only that it will support legislation that is good for Quebec -- and will not support any government that attempts to abolish the firearms registry.

"Damned if they do, damned if they don't" certainly applies to Canada in a race between the Liberals and Conservatives, both parties being of the right wing, just as it does to the US in a race between Democrats and Republicans. It's just that there are degrees of hell in all cases.

At least we sometimes, with a minority govt, or even with a Liberal majority govt, get a chance to stay in the cooler zones of that region.

[Retired AF Dem]

2. A real honest statement

"Damned if they do, damned if they don't" certainly applies to Canada in a race between the Liberals and Conservatives, both parties being of the right wing, just as it does to the US in a race between Democrats and Republicans. It's just that there are degrees of hell in all cases.