Haaretz poll: Kadima's popularity rises with Olmert as leader

[liberalpragmatist]

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/668726.html

By Yossi Verter , Haaretz Correspondent

Less than a week after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's hospitalization, his Kadima party - currently under the stewardship of his heir, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert - continues to gather strength, despite Sharon's absence.

If elections were held now, Kadima would win 44 Knesset seats - four more than in the first survey taken after Sharon was hospitalized. Labor dropped two seats (to 16), while Likud lost one (to 13) in comparison with that poll. No significant changes were recorded for the remaining parties. Shinui stands right on the threshold for Knesset entry, with four seats. The poll gives Shas 10 seats, with Meretz-Yahad holding steady at five.

<snip>

Sharon's aides - who are now working with Olmert - believe that these positive results for Kadima and Olmert will not last for long. They do say, however, that if they can avoid missteps and meld Olmert and Sharon into "Sharon's Path," then "chances are good that Kadima will end up as the biggest party after the election, and Olmert will be asked to form the next government."

<snip>

Olmert's personal rating has taken an amazing leap in the past week. Never before considered a popular favorite or a leading candidate for prime minister, his sober performance - against the background of regrettable circumstances - has made him just that.

In response to the question, which of the three candidates is most suited to being prime minister, Olmert beats out Netanyahu and Peres, with ratings surprisingly similar to those of Sharon on the eve of his hospitalization: 44 percent, compared with 23 percent for Netanyahu and 13.5 percent for Peretz.

[Fredda Weinberg]

1. I'm not surprised ...

It's not easy to be the mayor of Jerusalem and and I remember the dire predictions when Olmert took that position after a very popular politician. If Sharon can endorse him ... we might see kadima (loosely translated as progress) yet.

[Wordie]

2. Poll says 51% of former Likud voters will vote for Kadima...excellent!

This also was interesting:

Respondents were asked to rate the trustworthiness of Olmert, Netanyahu and Peretz on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 indicating "very untrustworthy" and 5 indicating "very trustworthy." The findings were: Olmert 3.4; Peretz 2.9; and Netanyahu in last place at 2.4.

For the last two survey questions, respondents were asked to place the three men on an imaginary ladder representing the political scale from right (1) to left (5). This is particularly significant in light of the current conventional wisdom which holds that most people want a candidate who is in the political center. Indeed, Olmert, like Sharon, scored nearly dead-center, at 2.97, with Peretz much farther left (3.90) and Netanyahu on the right (2.00).

Finally, respondents were asked to place themselves on the same scale. Most respondents placed themselves very near to Olmert, at 2.95 on the imaginary scale.

[TokenJew]

3. Not a shock Bibi came in last

but Peretz may just be too much of an unknown entity right now. Maybe his numbers will grow if the Palestinians become less of an issue and the poverty in Israel becomes more an issue.

[Wordie]

4. Anybody but Bibi.

OK, not entirely accurate. There are tiny parties in Israel who might be worse, as hard as that is to believe. But Netanyahu is dangerous, so I'm glad to see those results. Still, there's a long way to go.

[pelsar]

5. wordie..

dont get "too excited"... i probably represent the typical kadima voter (well a good chunk will be a bit right of me, with a far lesser chunk a bit left)....are you sure you want "us" in power (of course it could be a matter of "everybody else is worse...)

bibi doesnt have a chance nor does peretz.....

[Wordie]

6. If the choice is between Kadima and Netanyahu, there is no contest.

As much as we disagree, pelsar, Netanyahu would be a disaster, both for the Palestinians and for Israel, and possibly the rest of the world. I would chose Kadima over him without hesitation.

[pelsar]

7. how about "left"...

peretz etc?

and just for the record...disagreement is simply part of the conflict....its not the disagreement thats the problem its how one goes about dealing with it.....i.e solving it.

[tinnypriv]

9. It is worth noting

That the main reason why some members of Likud jumped ship to Kadima is because the Likud has been taken over by a bunch of total maniacs from the central committee. Essentially, the constituency of the likes of manhigut yehudit (Jewish Leadership) now run that party - as demonstrated by the fact that a known proponent of ethnic cleansing (Uzi Cohen) is now a top official. Hell, the education minister Limor Livnat warned that such a takeover of the Likud would "destroy the party" and put the "State (of Israel) in danger" as well. Not a small matter. Choosing Kadima over Likud is correct, but that's like choosing Joe Lieberman over Bush.

As for small parties, it is true that nationally they are small if you count "national" as the territory of pre-1967 Israel. But it's not true if you count the settlements in the territories (and some other extreme areas). There, you can find the likes of Ichud Leumi and NRP polling double the vote for Labor and Meretz/Yachad combined. That's right in the heart of the area around Jerusalem too. And these are the areas where the population is exploding due to direct government support. Not a good trend.

[eyl]

8. Not very surprising

a large part of Likud's voters, especially in the last two elections, were not Likud members, but rather "swing voters" who tend to the center - which Likud was closer to than Labor in those elections.