Elections in Israel and Palestine

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by Remi Kanazi
January 16, 2006

Given the recent political death of Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, many in Israel and the Occupied Territories are wondering who will the former premier’s spot. Likewise, Palestinians and Israelis are closely watching to see who will govern Palestinian society. The Palestinians engage in the political process first—with parliamentary elections on January 25. The question on how smoothly they will run still remains. It is of the utmost importance that Palestinian elections proceed unobstructed by Israel, including Occupied East Jerusalem. Differing reports emerged regarding whether or not Israel will allow voting in East Jerusalem, yet the latest reports state acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will give into US pressure and allow Palestinians to vote by absentee ballot.

The outcome of the January elections may affect Israelis at the polling stations this March. It is thought that the militant group, Hamas, will do exceedingly well in the upcoming parliamentary elections, mirroring what they accomplished in local municipal elections over the last year. Hamas unexpectedly won 73 percent of the vote in local municipal elections in the West Bank town of Nablus last December. It is not clear how many of the 132 seats Hamas (running as the Change and Reform ticket) will win on January 25. Recent polls suggest Hamas may capture 40 percent of the vote, as Fatah falls further out of favor in the eyes of Palestinians. According to United Press International, the Shin Bet—Israel’s internal security agency—predicts that Fatah will edge out Hamas for the 66 parliamentary seats that are distributed on a national proportional basis but foresees Hamas dominating in the 66 seats elected by districts.

Hamas’ rise to power can be attributed to its extensive social programs for poor Palestinians coupled with the disarray and corruption that has consumed Fatah—Palestinian Authority President Abu Mazen’s ruling party. Fatah’s infighting, between the younger generation, who is infuriated by Fatah’s lack of reform, and the old guard, strengthens the unified position of Hamas.

The Israeli reaction to a strong Hamas showing and possible victory can go a few ways. The likely reaction is to elect hard-core Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who incidentally has led the party further to the right in recent weeks. Yet the Israeli public will have two months to digest the results of the elections. Israelis were given a taste of the new Hamas when multiple Israeli newspapers indicated that a more “tempered” Hamas may be arising. The Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, stated that Hamas did not call for the destruction of Israel in its platform and “Diplomatically, the platform does not differ substantially from that of Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah faction.” This “tempered” Hamas position was reinforced by an earlier Shin Bet report which found that only one Israeli death in 2005 could be attributed to the military wing of Hamas. The majority of the Israeli public has a strong disdain for the group, following suicide bombings carried out in the 1990’s and more recently in the first few years of the second intifada.

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=107&ItemID=9537