Hamas has arrived - but there are limits to its advance

[Violet_Crumble]

The Palestinian Islamists will tomorrow reap the rewards of nationalist failure, Sharon's policies, discipline and integrity

Hussein Agha and Robert Malley
Tuesday January 24, 2006

There is more uncertainty than clarity surrounding tomorrow's Palestinian elections, though this much is plain: Hamas, the Islamist movement designated a terrorist organisation by the US and Europe and considered a mortal enemy by Israel, will be joining the legislature. Riding an unprecedented wave of popularity and having exceeded expectations in recent municipal elections, it is on course to capture a sizable portion of votes and, who knows, a seat at the cabinet table.
Hamas's decision to enter the political realm was long in coming but hardly a surprise. Like Fatah, the dominant secular nationalist organisation, Hamas is an offspring of the Muslim Brotherhood. Unlike Fatah, its agenda was not national liberation through armed struggle and diplomacy alone. Its first priority was the Palestinians' social and religious transformation. Violence was not its only tool, any more than independence was its sole objective. Of the two, paradoxically, it is Fatah that has the more militaristic pedigree. And, in the absence of armed struggle, it is Hamas that has a political agenda to fall back on.

True, violence came to Hamas, and brutally. Its first targets were soldiers and settlers. Later, it extended operations to suicide attacks against civilians, justifying them as retaliation for the killing of Palestinian civilians. On various occasions Hamas offered - in proposals Israel dismissed as disingenuous - to stop the killing of civilians if Israel did the same. Resort to violence itself also displayed political intuition, as attacks were carefully calibrated to the public mood.

The Palestinian Authority was failing miserably to protect its people. Unable to provide security, Hamas aimed for second best. It provided revenge. Even at the armed confrontation's height, Hamas kept one eye focused on the religious, social and cultural, rallying the faithful in mosques, tending to their needs through charitable institutions. Its leaders trusted in the ultimate payoff. Discipline and ideological coherence, coupled with inevitable public disenchantment over Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, would yield dividends. Payback time, by all accounts, is now.

<snip>

Furthermore, Hamas may be growing, but there's a limit. A minority of Palestinians back its hardcore Islamist positions and most oppose its outlook. Impressive as they are, its recent gains reflect disaffection with the authority rather than support for its political programme, and its electoral size inflates its actual one - so long as Hamas is not in charge, Palestinians will be grateful for every service it provides; once in power, Palestinians will blame it for every service they lack.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1693354,00.html

Note: I bolded a bit that needs to be taken notice of by folk who'd try to portray Palestinians as raving religious fanatics, because those people who claim that are very wrong...

[The Magistrate]

1. It Will Be Interesting, Ma'am

To see if the organization follows a trajectory reminiscent of Sinn Fein once in a government, or continues to pursue a wrecker's course....

[bemildred]

2. A larger stake in the game does focus the mind something wonderful, Sir.

It will be really amusing - in a way - if we get to the point
where Hamas is trying to police the unruly radicals in IJ etc.

[Lithos]

3. The mind does wander with that thought

I've also made the comparison to Sein Fein numerous times and I am curious to see how they will differ in results. Personally once they get a taste of power, I expect them to fragment with a group that will be slightly more respectable who feels they would have something to loose should everything fall breaking away from the more militant group group members.

On Edit: Grammar

[bemildred]

4. Probably.

The comparison with N. Ireland has its merits.

I would say this is certainly a most interesting point in time.
I would not have the courage to hazard a guess as to what happens
next, but it seems reasonable now to hope for something better, or
perhaps different and not worse.

I don't doubt that you are right about Hamas, and the splintering
off of the less "practical" members. It will also be interesting to
see how long their reputation for being incorruptible lasts, once
there is something substantial to be corrupted by.

[Lithos]

5. Something to loose

It will also be interesting to
see how long their reputation for being incorruptible lasts, once
there is something substantial to be corrupted by.

Yes, the stakes change once you have something to loose.

L-

[pelsar]

6. at best

it will be confusing as they have their own 'infighting" to take care of....once they sort that out, we may or may not see a singular entity....of course its not just the palestenians that have a say, i believe we've got the iranians involved, syrians and others with various levels of influence

[Lithos]

7. yes

All sides need to feel that is the case. Course the opposite is true, if you feel that you can lose everything and have nothing to gain, you can become extremely stubborn as well.

Just saw the "loose" (sic) above, several English teachers of mine are probably spinning like the Dervish.