Spectre of failed state looms over Hamas

[pelsar]

http://www.dawn.com/2006/04/21/int3.htm

RAMALLAH, April 20: A massive fiscal squeeze on the Hamas-led government has led to warnings that the Palestinian people could become residents of a failed state even before they achieve independence.

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though the article writes solely about the money problem, that is only one aspect. A society that does not have the political or military will to control its own borders, and has continual attacks on its neighbor is on the path to "somalia" where different gang bangers own their own turf....not to mention attacks within their own neighborhoods.

which brings one to the open question: Gaza, which is a single land mass, including access to the world via egypt, and in theory access to the deep pockets of their carrying arab brothers in the neighboring states.....is having trouble.

the west bank is far more complex with its city's and villages, and armed gangbangers.....what would a failed society look like over there?

and is "independence" no matter the consequences to the Palestinians a worthy goal (death toll in gaza from Palestinian on Palestinian violence: >50 dead -multiple sources, it seems the Palestinians aren't keeping "count." no numbers on the wounded or those terrorized from 'within"...no more UN/NGOs/intl reporters to write about it

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note: the goal of this thread is a "WHAT IF"....hypotheticals, various scenarios.......i.e. strawman are allowed and welcome

[leveymg]

1. And then what?

It's unlikely that the cutoff of US and EU funds are going to force the disavowal, overthrow, or dissolution of the Hamas government. It seems more likely that this will only harden the resolve of an already hardened nationalist core, which will find other sources of funds.

As most things that have been tried in recent years, this doesn't seem to hold much promise, except for more of the same hatred, chaos and violence. Or, is that the goal?

[pelsar]

2. its not just a money issue...

the internal/external violence emitting out of gaza started immediatly after the israeli withdrawl....no question that the money problem makes it worse, but its not the core.....

[leveymg]

3. So, what solution do you offer?

If it's not two states, what?

[pelsar]

5. its not a matter of just two states...

its also a matter of when.....first of all, there is no universal law that says "all social problems have a definative solution"....they're may not even be one for all i know. No is there some kind of "god given law" that states everybody shall have their own independant society...and there is no universal physics law that states all societies shall be successful, peaceful, democratic etc....

meaning, good intentions aside, Palestine may be headed for not just complete internal breakdown but one that drags israel in to it (as the attempts are in gaza today) possibly jordan as well......lebanons civil war being a partial example...over 100,000 dead

this is the point where it gets interesting as well as a bit sensitive for the "bleeding hearts" who might have trouble looking beyond "no occupation"....what if the palestenain society today is not ready for independance? (again, looking at gaza as the future palestenain state). If that "status" continues, as its doing in sudan, is independance a reasonable immediate goal?

as per my solution?...dont have one, at least not yet..but at the sametime putting on blinders and pretending the problem doesnt exist is pretty stuiped

[leveymg]

6. It sounds to me like what you're talking about is permanent occupation

of those territories Israel wants to hold on to, and occasional military intervention of Palestinian areas, as it sees fit? Is that accurate?

[pelsar]

7. no......

didnt say that...i'm just bringing up the problem.

conventional (i.e. non thinking, go with the crowd..) "wisdom" here at the DU states that once the palestenains have a state, violence will cease.

I'm saying not only is that not necessarily true, but that the exact opposite might very well occur. Far more violence both internal and external with chaos as in lebanons civil war, and no end in sight as per sudan.....

why is it assumed that once the palestenains have a country...all will be well (or is it more a matter of "it will be an internal matter and we then dont really care...."-nothing is worse than an occupation.

[leveymg]

8. Well, if you don't think the two state solution will work, and you're not

behind a permanent occupation (call it armed containment, if you want), then what other approach would you suggest is feasible?

[pelsar]

9. no ....no.....

your turn.....lets just say (humor me if you will) that the palestenains "dont make a go of it"....or do you think that they should have a state irreguardless of the consequences. Perhaps a civil war, perhaps civil war, + attacks upon israel (sort of whats happening today on a small scale)...lets just say chaos as in lebanon/sudan sort of way...thats also includes katushays on tel aviv

do you think thats the acceptable?

[leveymg]

10. After you, sir.

You still haven't given me your plan. Do that, and I'll answer your last question.

[pelsar]

11. fine....

....i think the palestenains who now have a tremendous amount of experience in fighting a sophisticated army will not let any other "outside group" control them. And if they dont accept them, they will turn their guns on them.

make gaza work, make gaza a success story to the point where the palestenains in the westbank are actually jealose. The gazans exporting and importing via egypt, improving their lives, no rockets on israel, and israel has no artillary going back, no infiltrations as the PA guards its border.

the israelis slowly watch a new society developing and are quietly helping it along....etc etc etc.

now how to get there?...thats the problem...how to actually make gaza work.....i dont know. i think some of the first steps involve the whole idea of responsability. Presently gaza lives off of handouts, that has to be turned around, they've got good land, experience in the agri business, lots of unemployed with few skills.....they just have to be convinced to stop with the kassams.

that will then establish a "working society" ...small steps at a time, that can then be applied to the westbank...later

so thats a "half solution" not really complete. (i'm not sure just "how to make gaza work....)

[leveymg]

12. I've heard about that one.

That scenario requires that the Gazans and the outside world would accept VERY unequal treatment by Israel of Gaza and the West Bank. It also implies a further division of the Palestinians. The problem is that Israel is so highly dependent on outside (U.S.) aid that the approach would have to be acceptable to the Americans. I don't think that we're very likely to go along with that plan to further divide Palestine.

So, what would be acceptable to the U.S. and the rest of the world? It has to fit within the model of sovereignty, self-governance, and security. It seems that Hamas and Fatah are the only two groups who potentially have the ability to govern, which might lead to an ability to effectively police their own extremists and conduct external relations. I would encourage a third-party to broker an agreement between them. If one desires to promote any sort of governmental viability, unification of the Palestinian factions rather than further division seems to be the proper approach.

Where does that leave the future if Israeli-Palestinian relations? It stabilizes the status quo. I realize that's not an attractive prospect. But, there's not going to be fundamental movement one way or the other until the Palestinians stop fighting each other. Allowing or promoting a Lebanese-style civil war isn't a desirable approach for the U.S., for a lot of reasons. There are centrifugal effects.

Would you agree, we seem to have diametrically opposed ideas about this one?

[pelsar]

13. you've skirted the issue...

your model is based on faith...that with a third party negotiating they'll all get along... what if Hamas and Fatah DONT work it out. and what about the islamic jihad? etc? Or worse, they do so temporally, get their independence and then palestine "falls apart."

you've got a lot of assumptions, based on nothing more than wishful thinking. That unification will bring stability. Did you know that years ago the PA brought in Palestinians from gaza to help with the security of the westbank...and about 2 weeks later they were back in gaza.....the west bankers didn't accept them.

whats the back up plan? israel pulls out, the factions after agreements don't get along....and infighting/turf wars starts all over the place.....


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what then?...my suggestion is "containment" until gaza gets moving and is stabilized, not in terms of "agreements" which are not usually worth the paper their printed on, but stabilized in the real sense. People working, a security force that concentrates on security etc. real changes on the ground, that the Palestinian citizens themselves feel.

i'm not so sure that america would be against a division of gaza and the west bank, precisely for the same reason israel would...establishing new norms within the Palestinian society. I'm assuming thats sort of whats happening now (at least they're in a process of some sort....)

[pelsar]

14. true believers.....

sometimes societies can go from bad to worse: iran from the shah to a facist theocratic govt, Afganistan, russian occupation to the taliban....Faith is not enough....i want to know what happens if the 'true believers" turn out to wrong.

[Burning Water]

4. It may harden their

resolve. They make get so hard they become brittle and break. The palestinian people are the ones who suffer through Hams' intransigence.