ANALYSIS: Israel is at risk of embarking on three-front war

[bemildred]

Or, what the heck, even four ...

Two weeks after the start of the IDF's extensive operation in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah opened a second front on the northern border. The second front, which could expand into Israel, started just as the first did - with the abduction of soldiers from inside Israel and the deaths of others.

Israel faces the danger of a third front if Syria steps in to assist Hezbollah. Strategically, Israel faces an extreme foursome: Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. Two extremist Islamic organizations considered terror organizations, and two states Washington names in the Axis of Evil.

Israel has no choice but to hold Lebanon responsible for what happens in its borders and for what comes out of it. Lebanon will likely wail as Israel strikes inside its territory and hits its infrastructure, but the Lebanese government must see itself as responsible for what Hezbollah does out of Lebanon. Particularly since Lebanon essentially rejected UN resolution 1559, which called for disarming the militia. Hamas and Hezbollah made the rules of the game with the ongoing rocket fire into Israel and the abduction of Israeli soldiers. If Israel loses in handling this, its strategic and military standing in the region will change and its deterrence of guerrilla warfare and high-trajectory weapons will be undermined.

From the moment the ground incursion into Gaza started, it was possible Hezbollah would try to help Hamas by attacking on the Lebanese border. This option was rejected by most military analysts. No unusual alert was evident.

Haaretz

[Trajan]

1. It's all about hatred ....

Israel OR Hezbollah OR Syria OR Iran can fight all they want .... They can kill as many as possible ....

It will only fuel MORE hatred and create MORE war in the future ....

There is no more strategy here than drunks swinging wildly in a barroom brawl ...

[WHEN CRABS ROAR]

2. AMEN TO THAT

Thousands of years of back and forth hatred.

[bemildred]

3. Bar fight sounds about right. nt

[PFunk]

10. Actually it'll probally make more sense for Iran to stay out of this one..

and let isreal (and to some extent america) bleed itself to death on this one. Unlike the other conflicst this is going to ba along slugfrest which will be determined by will and manpower-not tech.

Ethier way this doesn't look good for the region.

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. Israel can't win anything. It's a static situation for them, endless

grief and fear of attack from all sides. It will never end as long as they are there, it's the price they pay for occupying the place. They might as well get used to it.

[Mojorabbit]

5. It just feels inevitable that Iran will be dragged into this

It seems too good a chance for the PNAC's plans. I am afraid that someone will seize this chance to further the agenda. I hope not but...

[bemildred]

8. I don't think so.

I think Olmert and Halutz are out to restore their "deterrence", which was badly dinged (in their way of thinking) by the two recent successful attacks by Palestinians and Hiz'bullah. Iran has to be pleased as punch with the situation, and neither the US or Israel can view dragging Iran into the fight as an improvement. It is true that some fundies and neocons might welcome a wider war, as would some Israeli wingnuts, and perhaps some muslim zealots, but I don't expect they are running things, yet anyway. I think things may get quite bad in Lebanon, Israel, perhaps Syria, but not Iran.

[DianeG5385]

6. Sounds like a set up to me.

That's what the US and Israel want, to provoke Iran and Syria to justify their middle east mis-adventures. For the US, it's to distract and justify the debacle in Iraq and for Israel, it's to justify the Palestinian crackdown that began when they bombed that family on a beach.

This is a crime beyond crimes and there are a powerful few in both countries who are acting for themselves who could care less about the loss of life but seek only geopolitical advantage, dominance and enrichment. It's as it always has been, we are a violent species.

We, however, are pawns at our own choice and, unlike previous decades and centuries have it within our power to shut these idiots down, if only we have the courage at the ballot box.

However, I look around and see no powerful political leader for peace. We are in danger, and all we know could change, because the PTB don't give a ***t about us. It's up to us to survive these idiots because this is the ultimate reality TV show.

[azurnoir]

7. Israel might do better to work

with the Lebanese government to get these soldiers back. The president Emile Lahoud is a Christian and is friendly to the US, there could be a diplomatic end to this.

[bemildred]

9. Now don't be talking sense here.

It seems to me, so far, that the Israeli government and military are far more concerned with how it LOOKS to have Arabs winning tactical engagements with them, than with the recovery of the captured soldiers, hence the lack of interest in likely ways to get them back.

[Solo_in_MD]

12. If the Lebanese government was truly in contol in the south

it never would have happened. Its very weak and its control tenuous everywhere. In the south its almost non existent. This is not going to make things any better for it either.

[azurnoir]

13. This is what makes this so

tragic, had different methods been used I believe he would have been cooperative with the US and/or Israel. So much has happened between posts that probably has no chance now. I should state that my post(s) on this in no way suggests that Christianity is superior, but it does offer what could be a positive change from "the usual players" call Mr. Lahoud a wildcard and one with experience in navigating a political "Terra del Fuego".

[Behind the Aegis]

11. I'd say the fifth front is the international media...and the...

...rabid anti-Israelis, as well as the "tin-foilers" and "end-timers" from both sides!