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Larry Johnson:Israel Takes A Stupid Pill

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cal04 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 01:43 PM
Original message
Larry Johnson:Israel Takes A Stupid Pill
Apparently not content to let the U.S. do a self-immolation act in the Middle East by itself, Israel decided to set itself on fire by invading Lebanon. Burn baby burn? Like George Bush, Israel's Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, never served in a combat unit and launched military operations without thinking the matter through. In fact, Olmert reportedly never even served in the military. I raise this because there is one simple question Israel cannot answer about the current operations--what is their strategic military objective. Olmert has somehow persuaded the Israeli military to ignore strategy, think tactically, and in the process become really stupid. The events in the next several weeks will expose as myth the canard that you can secure a nation by killing terrorists. No you can't.

Killing "terrorists" has a place in policy but it is not a strategic military obective. It is a tactical objective and may serve political purposes, but achieves little in terms of securing Israel. Israel is attacking targets in Lebanon like a drunken sailor in a bar fight. Flailing about, causing significant damage, hitting innocent bystanders, and generally making a mess of things. This is not the Israeli military that pulled off the brilliant and daring raid at Entebbe.

What about Hamas and Hezbollah?

They are not terrorists. They carry out terrorist attacks, but they are not terrorists. They are something far more dangerous. They are fully functioning political, social, religious, and military organizations that use terrorism tactics, but they are far more formidible than terrorist groups like Al Qaeda or the Basque Terrorist Organization. They do have the resources and the personnel to project force, sustain operations, and cannot be easily defeated. Unlike the Egyptian and Syrian armies in 1973, Hamas and Hezbollah will not easily fold and cannot be defeated in a seven day war. If that is the assumption among some Israeli military planners it is a crazy fantasy.

While most folks in the United States buy into the Hollywood storyline of poor little Israel fighting for it's survival against big, bad Muslims, the reality unfolding on our TV screens shows something else. Exodus, starring Paul Newman, is ancient history. Hamas and Hezbollah attacked military targets--kidnapping soldiers on military patrols may be an act of war and a provocation, but it is not terrorism. (And yes, Hezbollah and Hamas have carried out terrorist attacks in the past against Israeli civilians. I'm not ignoring those acts, I condemn them, but we need to understand what the dynamics are right now.) Israel is not attacking the individuals who hit their soldiers. Israel is engaged in mass punishment.

more
http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2006/jul/15/israel_takes_a_stupid_pill
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bullimiami Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 01:44 PM
Response to Original message
1. as bad as sharon was, he knew better than this.
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thinkingwoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 01:55 PM
Response to Original message
2. Hamas and Hezbollah are not terrorists?
Wow. Just wow. What a load of hooey.
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northernsoul Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. read the whole article
According to Johnson, they're something far more dangerous.
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stepnw1f Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. You Beat Me To It
"They are something far more dangerous."
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thinkingwoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 02:10 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. Please see my reply #8. nt.
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stepnw1f Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 02:19 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Your Argument is Over Semantics
His point is very valid. Why are you not challenging the point he is making that these folks are more dangerous than just labeling them as terrorists. The situations needs to be looked at more carefully since it's much more complicated. By calling them simply terrorists, you ignore that complexity.

I seriously think you know that though.
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thinkingwoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 02:23 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. I'm not ignoring anything
I'm disagreeing.

And many a war has been fought over semantics. Word choice matters.
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thinkingwoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 02:10 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. I did.
I disagree completely with his premise that people can use terrorism as a tactic and not be terrorists.

I do agree that they are more dangerous than your run of the mill terrorist, however.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-16-06 09:14 AM
Response to Reply #8
20. Well there goes the American Revolution n/t
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bennywhale Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 02:02 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. If you read the full sentence i'm sure you'd
actually agree. what he was saying was that they use terrorism as a tactic but are far more emedded in the socities (politically, socially) that normal terrorist organisations, therefore making them harder to defeat. I think its pretty accurate. Terrorism isn't the only definition one can use to describe violent organisations, by framing it purely in those terms you box your thinking in, and it is actually the black and white view that serves the imperialists and extreme rw very well
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thinkingwoman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 02:09 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. No, I disagree completely
with his definition of terrorist and his premise that people can use terrorism as a tactic and not be a terrorist.
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stevietheman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
4. Olmert, like Bush, is now a war criminal. n/t
n/t
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Englander Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-16-06 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #4
15. Don't forget to include Peretz in that list.
'IAF launches heaviest raids yet on southern Beirut
By Amos Harel and Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondents and Agencies

Defense Minister Amir Peretz ordered the Israel Defense Forces Saturday night to step up the rate of attacks against Lebanon. His orders were issued close to the time when Lebanon's Prime Minister Fouad Siniora made a national address and called for an immediate cease-fire.

>snip

Hours after the order was made, the Israel Air Force indeed launched a wave of bombing raids on the Lebanese capital's southern suburbs early Sunday, Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV and witnesses said.

A series of loud explosions, about 18 in total, shook the capital, much of which was plunged in darkness after warplanes struck power stations and fuel depots feeding them.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/738699.html
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saigon68 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-16-06 05:03 AM
Response to Reply #4
16. This one is better
Edited on Sun Jul-16-06 05:03 AM by saigon68
OOPS I FORGOT NO PHOTOS
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Ilsa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 02:26 PM
Response to Original message
12. Johnson knows that Bush* and many uninformed will see this only as
Edited on Sat Jul-15-06 02:26 PM by Ilsa
"good vs evil" or "our allies vs the terrists" when the reality is far more complex. And Bush* won't allow anyone to "splain" it to him further, because no one wants to appear to be talking down to him.

On edit: Thanks for posting the article and link. I've emailed it out already.
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PA Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Very true, Ilsa.
I have made a conscious effort to educate myself on the politics and history of the Middle East, and the more I read, the more I realize I don't know.

How nice that Bush doesn't feel the need to educate himself. How sad that he didn't even realize that there were different ethnic and religious faction in Iraq and that there could possibly be violence, and dare I say it, civil war between the groups. His lack of curiosity has been noted by people like Paul O'Neill, his former Secretary of the Treasury.

The whole world is suffering the consequences of bush's ignorance, of his moronic need to see every issue purely in terms of black and white.
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jul-15-06 04:16 PM
Response to Original message
14. This is quite good, although I don't accept all of it.
Some of the comments are rather good, too.

These insanely abrasive negative comments actually do an excellent job of highlighting Josh's general point on the front page and here. The point being that the conservative elements of American Jewish community will simply not tolerate 1 iota of dissent on the topic of Israel.

This is irrelevent to the discussion, but for the record, I am a Jew, I have lived in Israel, and members of my extended family were killed in the holocaust. I will not be bullied into silence over Israel, and no one has the right or the moral authority to tell me to be quiet.

The offensive in Lebanon is stupid, wasteful, ineffective, and quite frankly cowardly. The poster has every right to point this out. The Israelis are in a literal sense trading civilian lives to minimize their own military casualties, because they are unwilling to take the casualties it would require to dislodge Hezbollah.

For all the flack Israel took for Jenin, most honest observers including many Arabs had to concede that Israel struck a military target, engaged the enemy on the ground, fought hard, took casualties, and won. That is how you fight a war and win respect. You demonstrate that your goals are important enough to warrant your casualties. If there are military threats that are unacceptable, you commit your men to the task, you attack the threat direcdtly and you eliminate it.

Call the substitution of collective punishment for the dirty, messy, dangerous but dignified job warfare what it is; cowardice.

Sharon would understand that Israel is demonstrating its weakness to Hezbollah, not its strength. Hezbollah will lbe emboldened and delighted to realize that the IDF is afraid to engage them on the battlefield. Isn't that what Hezbollah has been saying about the IDF for years?

Israel has a well trained and effective army, Hezbollah is a real threat and the goal to eliminate them is worthy. I’d advise Israel to stop killing civilians get to work fighting their enemy.


Another:

Part of Israel's overreaction might be to make people forget about the IDF's spectacular screwups of the last few days:

o The capture of Gilad Shalit

o The capture of two soldiers by Hezbollah plus the deaths of 3 others in the same operation. (Something Hezbollah had warned it would do for months.)

o Falling into a trap that led to the destruction of a tank and the deaths of all 4 of its occupants.

o "Forgetting" to turn on the detection/deflection system on one of its most advanced warships.

Is "heck of a job" Brownie running the IDF?


And one more:

Good post, Larry
How about another one recommending a sane Israeli strategy?

I think there is actually some strategic thinking going on here, but it is not necessarily deep and grounded

Hezbollah is problematic to Israeli planners; they would like to see it removed from the border area and delegitimized as a political force in Lebanon; being to tight with Syria and Iran and too hostile.

Since the anti-Hezbollah political factions in Lebanon are weak and weary, Israel seeks to coerce them and also bolster them, into taking transformative action.
For example, a settlement could include a taking over of the border area by Lebanese govt forces, which means withdrawal of Hezbollah, and guarantees (carrot & stick) by Israel dissuading potential attackers of those govt forces.

Along the way to this sort of solution, if Syria and/or Iran get an enhanced bad-guy public image, then that also would please Israeli planners.

This parallels roughly the strategy in Gaza and West-Bank
Which is to promote an outcome where Hamas has been delegitimized politically, and the nexus of military/police force for Palestinians has moved back towards Fatah, PLO, etc.

What these strategies miss are 2 things.

For one, such transformations of power structures require a massive, long-term investment and are not accomplished by week-long mini-wars, unless all the tides of history are with you at that moment (which they are not).

Second, they are vying against a different model of power which is more nationalistic and national-community-based than factional.

Most Palestinians are not hard-core militants and activists of any faction; neither are most Lebanese.
They follow the leadership of factions in order to secure better outcomes for themselves; like strength, prosperity, security, services, connectivity, a future.

When you attempt to destroy the faction in these marginally developed areas, you are attacking the infrastructure of peoples' lives, with nothing left to replace the loss.
The UN can be called upon to ship in supplies, but that is different than the web of life provided by these social (and militant) movements.
It can take years to build an alternative.

So, again this type of transformation is not really viable unless history has brought some alternative movement and network close to the surface. One which embraces the ethnic and religious groups in question, that is a 'safe' choice for people.

Because of the history of Fatah/PLO leadership, people in Palestine wanted a change, they are weary of the past.
So, although they technically exist as an option, they would need to be reborn as something new.
Sadly, the agreement to join with Hamas in supporting documents pertaining to peace was perhaps the early point of such a birth.

Similarly in Lebanon; a replacement for Hezbollah must grow organically, and including them in the political process more and more tightly is probably the best way to grow that.

Strangely, and counter-intuitively, these types of attacks may bring greater unity of a sort in Palestine and Lebanon, which though being problematic in being anti-Israel, may be useful in eliciting more coherent national visions for those areas, and thus ultimately help produce neighbors which are more predictable and easier to relate with.
Still, it would be better to walk forward, open-eyed into the future, rather than being dragged forwards in a crazy fashion.


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saigon68 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-16-06 05:26 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. Thanks An interesting take on a very complicated problem
wonder how long the SHOOTING will go on here
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pelsar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-16-06 10:20 AM
Response to Reply #14
21. the author doesnt know israeli society...
Edited on Sun Jul-16-06 10:21 AM by pelsar
as is evident from this sentence:

Part of Israel's overreaction might be to make people forget about the IDF's spectacular screwups of the last few days:

the israeli public and military dont forget the "screwups" so easily...and thats just to begin with....nor were they "spectactular" (unless one believes the IDF cant make mistakes, which many here seem to believe....)
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-16-06 10:35 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. Yeah, some parts are questionable.
As I said, I don't buy all of it.

However, if we have to note that, then we should note that Israeli society is not the arbiter of all that is true or insightful.
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Violet_Crumble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-16-06 05:12 AM
Response to Original message
17. Flip flops?
'Hezbollah's successful attack on Friday on an Israeli naval vessel is a reminder that Hezbollah is not a bunch of crazy kids carrying RPGs and wearing flip flops.'

D'uh. Everyone knows they're called thongs! http://www.abc.net.au/goldcoast/stories/s1461217.htm
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saigon68 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-16-06 05:30 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. LOL
And here I thought thongs, were something Monika wore
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