Guardian (Jonathan Spyer): Don't expect peace soon

[furman]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/comment/0,,1967443,00.html

Don't expect peace soon

Hostile forces have to be defeated before any meaningful Middle East talks can take place
Jonathan Spyer
Friday December 8, 2006

Guardian


Internal politics and wider regional strategy largely explain the sudden re-emergence of talk about conflict resolution between Israelis and Palestinians. The leading party in Israel's government has been drifting, rudderless, since the conclusion of this summer's war with Hizbullah. The big idea of prime minister Ehud Olmert's Kadima party was unilateral disengagement, which was implemented in Gaza in 2005.

But the results have included: the transformation of Gaza into an armed camp as the result of massive smuggling of weapons; the victory of Hamas in Palestinian Authority elections in January, at least partially as a result of disengagement being depicted as an Israeli flight in the face of Palestinian military action; and the failure of Israel to achieve deterrence vis-à-vis Hamas-led Gaza, with the resulting launches of Qassam rockets.

The war with Hizbullah has helped to further damage the idea of unilateralism, at least for the moment, because of the perceived need for Israel to rebuild a strong deterrent stance, and the negative effect that disengagement is seen to have had in this regard.

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But is there nevertheless a chance for substantive progress? There is, sadly, little cause for optimism. Rather, the position of the Hamas-led government of Ismail Haniyeh has become entrenched by the latest developments.

From Hamas's point of view, things are going rather well. Attempts to found the long-awaited unity government in the PA remain becalmed because of the refusal of Hamas to compromise on Israel's right to exist, commitment to prior agreements, and abandoning terror.

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In the meantime, the ceasefire suits Hamas just fine, enabling it to replenish and re-arm. And to return to the fight at a time of its choosing.

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Forces hostile to peace and stability are on the rise among the Palestinians and their regional backers. Their defeat or containment are likely to precede any return to a genuine diplomatic process.

· Jonathan Spyer is a senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Centre in Israel