By most measures, it would seem the Israelis are winning the Palestinian-Israeli war. They control and colonize Arab lands, enjoy military superiority and total American support, and unilaterally define most diplomatic parameters of the conflict. Yet this may be a mistaken assessment: The Palestinians and Arabs are perhaps starting to win some battles, while Israel is losing some of its dominance. Seven events in the past five months seem to lend credence to this view.
The first was Hizbullah's ability to fight Israel for 34 days this summer, and on the 34th day to keep firing hundreds of rockets into Israeli territory. Morality and political consequences aside, this reflected a truly historic combination of political will, technical military proficiency, and a capacity to remain shielded from Israeli, Western and Arab spies and infiltrators. No Arab party had ever crossed this threshold in the century-long conflict with Zionism and Israel.
The second event was Israel's (and Washington's) having to accept the August cease-fire resolution at the United Nations, after the United States had given Israel weeks of extra warfare to hit Hizbullah. A determined Arab group forced Israel and the US to accept a political resolution instead of military victory, and the cease-fire resolution included measures that Israel had previously always rejected - addressing the occupied Shebaa Farms area in the context of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, rather than as occupied Syrian land, and specifying the return or exchange of Israeli and Lebanese prisoners.
Israel quietly dropped its previous position that the two Israeli soldiers snatched by Hizbullah on July 12 had to be returned unconditionally. The stationing of over 20,000 Lebanese and international troops in Southern Lebanon has long been an Israeli demand, but also came at a price: limiting Israel's scope of action in Lebanon and its overflights.
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