Olmert's legacy could yet be the failure that forces something better

[bemildred]

Let's hope Lords Hutton and Butler were taking notes. An 81-year-old retired judge, Eliyahu Winograd, has just given a masterclass in how to conduct a genuine, fearless and plainspoken inquiry into a government failure. While our own inquisitors into aspects of the Iraq war retreated either into whitewash (Hutton) or polite circumlocution (Butler), Winograd delivered it straight, and right between the eyes. Asked by the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, to probe the country's "second Lebanon war" last summer, he issued an interim verdict on Monday which required no translation from the mandarin code of euphemism. Olmert was, said the judge, guilty of "a severe failure" of judgment, rushing into a "hasty" war with no clear plan, setting "overambitious and unobtainable goals". Others were at fault but, as prime minister, Olmert bore "supreme responsibility". Short of handing the PM a revolver, Winograd could not have been harsher.

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That, and the possibility that the Winograd report will shock the Israeli political and military establishment, even Israeli society itself, into a desperately needed shakeup is the crumb of comfort. Otherwise, it is a grim moment for the country. The report lays into the incompetence and hubris of the men at the top, the decay that has been allowed to eat away at the Israel Defence Forces, even the individualistic hedonism of a nation that once placed a great premium on collective solidarity. Not since the Agranat report into the 1973 war has there been such a comprehensive indictment. According to Yediot Ahronoth columnist Sima Kadmon, "The entire system screwed up."

This round of self-flagellation was not prompted by concern that the 2006 pounding of Lebanon was "disproportionate", to recall the word of that hour. Israelis still believe they had every right to take on Hizbullah, who had abducted two Israeli soldiers from Israeli soil and had thousands of rockets aimed at Israeli civilian towns. The criticism is not that Olmert fought the war but that he fought it badly. That he didn't achieve his stated aims of freeing the soldiers and de-fanging Hizbullah; that he sent troops in harm's way with no coherent plan and insufficient protection; and that a non-victory against a mere guerrilla movement has shattered the IDF aura of invincibility essential to deter Israel's enemies. It's for that series of failures that he has been slammed.

As a result, Olmert is a dead man walking. An instant poll for Israel's Channel 10 sought to discover how many people would vote for Olmert if elections were held today. The answer was 0%, surely a political first in any country at any time. Thirty three years ago, the Agranat commission drove Golda Meir from office and Winograd seems set to do the same to Olmert - if not now, then with his final report this summer.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2070074,00.html

[Kagemusha]

1. I remember when the inquiry was being fought very hard.

And for good reason, looking at the results. Western governments should watch and bow their heads in shame. I'm more familiar with Britain and Canada's cases than with the US - because the US doesn't really do 'inquiries' - and their history in those two countries is one of proud whitewashes.

[bemildred]

2. Well, I gotta give them credit. But ...

Unless someone buys themselves a clue and admits that bombing the shit out of Lebanon was a bad "solution" to the problem presented by a border skirmish in which a few troops were killed or captured, I am not optimistic. And I don't mean bad in the "war crimes" sense, although you can argue that, I mean bad in the sense that it was not going to make the situation is was supposed to address better. A six year old boy with a hammer thinks everything looks like a nail. Grownups are supposed to know better. "A man's got to know his limits" to quote Clint Eastwood. There is still talk similar to the morons in the USA here that have not yet admitted that invading VietNam was a mistake. Injured egos do not resolve intractable problems. You know, "it's not that the idea was wrong, we just didn't do it right yet". But that may yet improve.