In wake of war, Lebanon is weaker and Israel is stronger

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Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, made a remarkable statement last week. He praised Israel for conducting an inquiry into last year's war with Hezbollah - an inquiry that accused Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of "serious failure in exercising judgment, responsibility and prudence."

Nasrallah was quoted by the BBC as saying Israelis "study their defeat in order to learn from it," in contrast with the Arab regimes that "do not probe, do not ask, do not form inquiry commissions, as if nothing has happened."

One has to be impressed by his honesty, but he did not take it all the way, since the Arab leader who most needs to be probed is Nasrallah himself. He started the war with Israel, which was a disaster for both sides. If there were an honest Arab League Inquiry Commission into the war, here is what it would say about him:

On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah fighters directed by Nasrallah abducted two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others in an unprovoked attack across the Lebanon-Israel border, on the pretext of seeking a prisoner exchange. This triggered a war that killed about 1,200 Lebanese and 160 Israelis. After interviewing all relevant parties, the Arab League Commission finds Nasrallah guilty of a serious failure of judgment, responsibility and prudence - for the following reasons.

http://www.theolympian.com/109/story/104847.html

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1. Hizbullah's divine defeat

Another one ...

A few days ago a prominent US journalist, Thomas L. Friedman from the New York Times, wrote an article that summarizes the failures of Hizbullah during the Second Lebanon War. The creative Friedman quoted incriminating evidence by an official Lebanese commission of inquiry into the war – fictitious quotes by a fictitious commission that was not established and never will be.

In Israel and in the Arab world alike an erroneous perception has taken root - that Israel lost and Hizbullah registered a "divine victory." Although the opposite is true, this distorted image takes precedence.

In the case of the Second Lebanon War, the task of blurring reality and turning it around is particularly easy: In their speeches Assad and Nasrallah presented the conclusions of the Winograd Report as crushing proof of Israel's downfall. If Israel itself admits its failure, why, they wondered, should they look for other evidence?

Indeed, the Israeli cabinet and its military failed more than once during the war, yet nonetheless, Friedman is right: Israel ended the war in a superior position, in all aspects – tactically, strategically and politically.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3399167,00.html

[The Magistrate]

2. Interesting Pieces Both, Sir

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3. "Interesting" is the right word I think, SIr.

That Mr Friedman was motivated to set the record straight was interesting. The arguments are "interesting". I suppose a morale booster is always a good thing.

The underlying point, that the result was and remains indeterminate, is true. Many things keep on happening all at once. The optimistic assertions about future outcomes, present realities, and past events do not convince me.

The "3000 rockets a day" piece that oberliner put up was "interesting" too, because it seems a bit uncharacteristic of Nasrallah, who is usually careful not to look like a loon.

One can sense disturbances in the force.

[question everything]

4. The problem that governments have with loose cannons

Yes, it was convenient for Syria and for Iran to have Hezbollah tweaking Israel, even testing their arms (just as it is convenient for the US to have arms tested in Israel).

However it was widely assumed that neither was happy when Nassrallah ran forward, after Israel called his bluff.

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5. To pick a nit:

I disagree that it was a bluff. I think Nasrallah fully intended to get a war going, and while the details might have varied somewhat from what he expected, I think he was happy with the result. It is true that Syria and Iran have expressed discomfort with the course of events on several occasions, but I doubt that Nasrallah cares much about that.