"Gaza lost" as Fatah arms running short -diplomats

[maddezmom]

JERUSALEM, June 13 (Reuters) - Hundreds of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's forces are running out of ammunition and abandoning their posts, diplomats said on Wednesday, prompting one Abbas aide to tell envoys the fight against Hamas in Gaza is lost.

Western diplomats, who were briefed by aides to Abbas, and a security source said the president had not, as of yet, requested that any troop reinforcements be allowed to cross Israel into Gaza from his Fatah group's bases in the West Bank.

Nor have fresh arms and ammunition requested by Fatah from Egypt and other Arab states arrived, they said.

An Israeli government source confirmed no weapons were sent. "At this point there have been no transfers. But there are more evaluations and discussions tomorrow," the source said.

more:http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L13893715.htm

[barb162]

1. "Gaza lost" It's a disaster in the making. n/t

[razzleberry]

2. good news, for a change .n/t

[LeftishBrit]

3. Good news? Is any of this good news?

[Scurrilous]

4. Hamas offers Fatah conditional cease-fire; 24 dead in day of clashes

<snip>

"Hamas on Wednesday offered Fatah a conditional cease-fire, after at least 24 Palestinians, including two United Nations aid workers, were killed in fighting between the rival factions in the Gaza Strip throughout the day.

Hamas militants waged an assault on the three main security forces compound in Gaza City, seizing control over most of the Gaza Strip.

Hamas' armed wing said "the coup-seekers" - a reference to Fatah - in that area have until Friday evening to hand over their weapons.

Hours later, a Hamas spokesman offered a conditional ceasefire under which the interior minister, a post now held by Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, a Hamas leader, would command all of the Palestinian security services.

"(Egyptian mediators) received the proposal and promised to present it to Abbas. The ball is now in court. Hamas does not set impossible conditions, and if there are serious intentions to resolve the crisis, we will be ready to reciprocate," said Sami Abu Zuhri, a Hamas spokesman."

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/870548.html

[maddezmom]

5. Ithings are spinning out of control...is there anyone in charge?

from what I'm reading the anwser is no. Bedlam and chaos rules the day again. :(

[bemildred]

7. Who's in charge is what the argument is about.

This was predicted a while back. I remember some stories here. The fundamental issue is that the old Fatah "security" apparatus doesn't want to give up its control and its perks and the Hamas people are tired of it, and are trying, apparently with some success, to take control of the security apparatus anyway, by force. Your basic political revolt and insurrection. I'm somewhat surprised Fatah is not giving a better account of itself, on paper they have the numbers and the weapons, but maybe that is not so true in Gaza.

[barb162]

24. I kept reading about lack of orders and leadership by Fatah

from some of the people out in the field. It's as if the leadership was paralyzed by indecision or whatever, which is no surprise.

[bemildred]

26. I dunno, to be honest.

Abbas has not covered himself in glory, IMHO, but I don't know if that is enough to explain this seeming rout. And one has to wonder about Abbas' minions too, they seem to have been like "deer in the headlights" here. And where did all these apparently very effective Hamas fighters come from? Even if one allows for Fatah corruption and incompetence, you still have a lot to explain here, but I have no clue.

[rayofreason]

6. "conditional cease fire"=...

...You give up your weapons, and we take over your stuff and kill as many of you as we like. Resist and the "cease fire" is over.

[Scurrilous]

8. ANALYSIS: Hamas victory in Gaza presents new reality for Israel

<snip>

"Israel is watching the developments in the Gaza Strip with grave concern and the defense establishment will hold meetings next week in an effort to prepare recommendations for a new policy. The general assessment in the Israel Defense Forces is that there is a new reality in the Strip and that Hamas has defeated Fatah in the battle for power.

Hamas effectively completed its victory over Fatah in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday following a day of fighting in which 26 people were killed.

Most of the dead were affiliated with Fatah, although at least two civilians participating in a peace demonstration and two United Nations aid workers were also killed. Since the fighting began Sunday, at least 67 Palestinians have been killed in the internecine battles.

Since Hamas is boycotted by Israel, it is still unclear how essential contacts will be handled, particularly in matters of coordination over the control of transit points and the entry into Israel of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip for humanitarian purposes."

more

[rayofreason]

9. The real question is...

...can Israel keep Hamas attacks down to a level where it will not be forced to reoccupy Gaza.

I suspect that they will be able to do so. My reasoning is as follows:

1. Ordinary folks in Gaza are fed up with Hamas
2. Life, was already tough, and it will get tougher
3. Hamas guys are gangsters, and they will start to fight amongst themselves for what money there is
4. The chances of Hamas getting a lot of foreign aid money is slim to none, making competion even more cut throat
5. Under these conditions there will be lots of turncoats, score-settlers, and informants
6. These informants will provide the Israelis a steady stream of valuable addresses in geographically limited Gaza
7. Israelis will deliver numerous 'splodygrams to said addresses
8. This will produce an severe shortage of virgins, or at least a shortage of those willing to meet them
9. The ones that go first will be the most experienced Hamas terrorists
10. All this will produce a huge erosion in the ability of Hamas to hit Israel, further weakening Hamas by exposing the futility of the Jihadi narrative.

Hamas, of course, will try like hell to conduct an outrage that will force Israel into Gaza. They have nothing to lose in the court of world opinion, much of which will blame Israel no matter what. And they have much to gain by fighting Israel on the ground in Gaza.

[pelsar]

10. i doubt israel is "going back"

wih an armed population and religious fanatics/thugs at every street corner it makes it somewhat suicidal (as in iraq). The fence around gaza is complete with "kill zones/security areas on both sides so it limits infiltration. The weak spot being the border control areas where food and supplies area imported and the kassams.

I dont think they'll have a shortage of jihadnikim, they're easy to produce, and non violent protests dont do much either at this stage...some of the protesters were shot and killed.

that leaves just the kassams flying over...and they will no doubt improve them to hit ashkelon as well. The israeli response will be limited to bombing them and perhaps small incursions, but theres not a whole lot of options here.

In the end it is a pure palestenian problem to solve. Egypt sure isnt going to help much, they'll keep their border lock down tight. Hard to imagine a european/UN force-first time they get hit, they'll pack up and go.

this time the "power to change" will be soley in the hands of the palestenains.....

(of course the irony would be there, if there are calls to bring back the israeli occupation, already heard from certain corners within the palestenain society)

[Eugene]

11. (Thursday) Hamas bombards major Fatah security compound

Source: Reuters

Hamas bombards major Fatah security compound
14 Jun 2007 06:29:30 GMT
Source: Reuters

GAZA, June 14 (Reuters) - Hamas fighters bombarded a major
security compound belonging to the rival Fatah group in Gaza
City on Thursday after an ultimatum to those inside to surrender
expired.

The Islamist group issued the ultimatum on its own radio station
in Gaza and said those inside the compound would be allowed to
leave safely by around 9:20 a.m. (0620 GMT) or risk the wrath of
the surrounding force.

Hamas's seizure of the heavily fortified compound belonging to
the Fatah-controlled Preventive Security force would deal a
major blow to forces loyal to Western-backed President Mahmoud
Abbas of Fatah.

Link: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L1470411.htm

[maddezmom]

12. gunmen were bringing Preventive Security men out of the building and executing them in the street.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070614/ap_on_re_mi_ea/israel_palestinians;_ylt=AvC78qeUuMIVu4CcXwM66gys0NUE

[razorman]

13. At least the Israelis seem to be playing it smart

and staying the hell out of this conflict. There is nothing to be gained by interfering in this Palestinian civil war. The best thing they can do is guard their own borders and keep a hands-off attitude. Undoubtedly, one side or the other will try to draw them in. It's a shame, but it looks like there will be no good outcome to this.

[bemildred]

14. Southern Gaza town of Rafah falls to Hamas

The southern Gaza Strip town of Rafah fell on Thursday to Hamas fighters, witnesses and security officials said.

---

Fatah forces had previously lashed out at Abbas, saying he left them with no directions and no support in the fight. Abbas' strongman in Gaza, Mohammed Dahlan, had been in Cairo for medical treatment. He returned to the West Bank city of Ramallah on Thursday afternoon.

---

"There will be no dialogue with Fatah, only the sword and the rifle," Nezar Rayyan, a senior Hamas official, told Hamas radio Thursday. "God willing, we will lead the Friday prayer in the president's office, and transform the security complex into a big mosque."


http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/870763.html

[bemildred]

15. Hamas overruns Gaza General Intelligence headquarters (Extra)

Gaza City - Gunmen from the Islamic Hamas movement succeeded in overrunning the General Intelligence headquarters in Gaza City Thursday afternoon, witnesses said, leaving just two strongholds in the city still in the hands of members of the rival Fatah movement.

There was no immediate word on the number of casualties from the fight for the headquarters, located in the north-west of the city.

Earlier Thursday Hamas gunmen succeeded in overrunning the Gaza headquarters of the Preventive Security organization, after a gunfight which killed at least 14 people.

Hamas has been systematically taking over Fatah positions in the Gaza Strip since the internecine fighting, which re-erupted last Thursday, escalated at the beginning of the week.

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/middleeast/news/article_1317617.php/Hamas_overruns_Gaza_General_Intelligence_headquarters__Extra_

[bemildred]

16. Report: Fatah blows up security post to keep it from falling to Hamas

An explosion rocked Gaza on Thursday afternoon, and plumes of white smoke rose from the direction of a security post. Fatah security officials said forces positioned at the post redeployed elsewhere, and blew it up as they left rather than let Hamas take it over. (AP)

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3412985,00.html

[maddezmom]

17. Erakat: 'Gaza is now officially out of our control as the Palestinian Authority'

Erakat: 'Gaza is now officially out of our control as the Palestinian Authority'
GAZA CITY (CNN) -- Hamas fighters continue to seize control of key Fatah security installations across Gaza as the Palestinian government teeters on the brink of collapse.

Neither Fatah nor Hamas legislators have any control in the territory, Palestinian legislator Saeb Erakat told CNN Thursday.

"Gaza is now officially out of our control as the Palestinian Authority," said Erakat, who is aligned with the Fatah party.

He blamed a "renegade force" in Gaza for staging a "major coup d'etat."

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/06/14/thursday/index.html?section=cnn_latest

[bemildred]

18. "Who's in charge?" seems to be a very good question.

I am eagerly awaiting the new story line from the state propaganda organs, once they figure out who these guys are.

[barb162]

25. He called the situation "very, very grave" ... violence "setting us back 50 years at least"

"I believe a state of emergency must be declared immediately," Erakat said. "This is a coup against the president, against the Palestinian people, and against the Palestinian cause."

snip
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/06/14/gaza/index.html

[oberliner]

19. Hamas overruns rival Fatah's key posts

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip - Hamas fighters overran two of the rival Fatah movement's most important security command centers in the Gaza Strip on Thursday, and witnesses said the victors dragged vanquished gunmen into the street and shot them to death execution-style.

Hamas also seized control of Rafah in the south, Gaza's third-largest city, according to witnesses and security
officials. It was the second main Gaza city to fall to the militants, who captured nearby Khan Younis on Wednesday.

Hamas captured the Preventive Security headquarters and the intelligence services building n Gaza City, major advances in the Islamic group's attempts to take over Gaza.

After the rout at the security headquarters, some of the Hamas fighters kneeled outside, touching their foreheads to the ground in prayer. Others led Fatah gunmen out of the building, some shirtless or in their underwear, holding their arms in the air. Several of the Fatah men flinched as the crack of gunfire split the air.

A witness, who identified himself only as Amjad, said men were killed as their wives and children watched.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070614/ap_on_re_mi_ea/israel_palestinians;_ylt=Atek6ArnNZB5QGqsuLVT1zis0NUE

[Scurrilous]

20. Hamas seizes PA intelligence materials, says Israeli tactics exposed

After storming PA security headquarters in Gaza, Hamas officials say they've uncovered thousands of documents, including classified correspondence with Israeli forces. Hamas: 'These will help us battle Israel's surveillance tactics'

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3413019,00.html

<snip>

"After overtaking the Palestinian Authority's Preventive Security headquarters in Gaza City on Thursday afternoon, Hamas fighters report they have seized tens of thousands of highly valuable intelligence documents, including correspondence between the PA and others regarding security issues.

A Hamas member told Ynet that he and his men removed thousands of documents, video tapes and other equipment from the compound: "I saw my name appeared at least four times in the intelligence documents – in attempts to take me out. I saw details of surveillance against me and joint Fatah-Israeli plans to thwart our attacks."

"These will help us battle Israel's surveillance tactics," he added."

<snip>

"The Hamas man said that the documents also implicate several Arab nations of involvement in the internal Palestinian power-struggle in an attempt to impair Hamas. According to the Hamas source the papers also document the PA's cooperation with the American CIA against Palestinian organizations, especially Hamas."

[bemildred]

21. I was wondering about that.

Whether any "sensitive documents" might be captured. However, I think I'll take these reports with a grain of salt for the time being.

[pelsar]

22. a large grain of salt...

the idea of israeli intelligence giving "real stuff" to fatah when the "PA security by day-hamas by night" syndrom was quite well known, doesnt sound very realisitic. Anyway they're involved in a serious propaganda battle to show just how "bad" the other guy is, corrupt, etc. this would simply be a part of it.

[bemildred]

23. Well, I tend to view it all as bullshit of one sort or another.

On the one hand I don't find some collaboration unlikely; on the other hand one would expect that they were all (Israelis and Palestinians) lying to each other and to everybody else too, so how does one sort it out? And isn't it quite a messy picture even if you do manage to sort it out? It's not like any of them would be above faking something, either. Still, if they manage to trot out some convincing documentation of one sort or another, it could have substantial political effects.

[Scurrilous]

27. Top Hamas official: We won't declare Islamic rule in Gaza

<snip>

"A senior Hamas official in Syria said Thursday there would be no change in the status of the Gaza Strip, and no Islamic rule would be declared in the territory after a near takeover of the seaside strip by the militant group.

Moussa Abu Marzouk was speaking shortly after Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas announced his decision to fire Hamas Prime Minister Isamil Haniyeh and dissolve the four-month-old Palestinian unity government.

"Gaza will remain Gaza and there will be no changes in its future and will continue to be linked to the West Bank whether he removed the government or not," said the Damascus-based deputy head of Hamas' political bureau.

He rejected talk of declaring an Islamic state in Gaza. "This talk has no basis ... We are committed to the rules and basic laws organizing the Palestinian Authority," he said."

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/870763.html