Mideast Policy in a Fantasy World

[richards1052]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/08/AR2007070800924_pf.html">Mideast Policy in a Fantasy World

by Jackson Diehl, Washington Post

During Ehud Olmert's visit to Washington last month, I asked a senior Israeli official to explain what the prime minister thought would be the result of his policy -- quickly embraced by the Bush administration -- of isolating the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip. Since Hamas's coup against the secular Fatah party in mid-June, Israel has allowed in international aid convoys and continued to supply power and water, but otherwise sealed off the territory and its 1.5 million people.

His answer: As conditions worsened, Palestinians in Gaza would grow steadily more disgruntled with Hamas. Eventually, they would turn on their rulers, and the rump Islamic state that threatens to take hold between Egypt and Israel would collapse. Fatah -- which Israel and the United States are supporting in the West Bank -- would regain control.

In other words, Israeli policy is counting on Gaza's impoverished and largely uneducated population to stage the first popular revolution against a domestic government in the modern history of the Arab Middle East. It also assumes that people suffering from extreme privation will respond by demanding a more moderate government.

If this reasoning is far-fetched, it's at least consistent. Ever since Hamas won Palestinian elections at the beginning of last year, Olmert and the Bush administration have adopted a string of failed policies based on ever-more-unlikely scenarios. They began by betting that a diplomatic and aid boycott would either cause Hamas's collapse or force it to formally recognize Israel's right to exist. Then they calculated that the Middle East could be divided into "extremist" and "moderate" states, with the moderates -- including Saudi Arabia -- lining up with Israel against Iran and Hamas. Now they are supposing that they can back the weaker side in an intra-Palestinian power struggle and ensure that it comes out on top.

So far the result of these wishful strategies has been to make Hamas stronger and Palestinians as a whole more radical. The greatest threat to the Gaza regime at the moment is not Fatah but still more bloodthirsty gangs, such as Islamic Jihad and Army of Islam. Many people believe al-Qaeda will soon be a serious factor...

[oberliner]

1. dupe

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=124x179563

[bemildred]

2. Well, the thing is, it completely ignores evolution, selection.

Which is the operative paradigm. A population of a couple million humans is not an individual that can be made to come to his senses by a stiff right to the jaw. It is a population that will evolve to survive and prosper in the environment that is presented to it. So Israel needs to ask itself what it is selecting for? So far it has been selecting for Hamas, apparently, and there is no reason to think that more of the same will select for something else. So if what you want is not Hamas, or something Hamas-like, the present policy is stupid.

[Scurrilous]

3. Mideast Policy in a Fantasy World

<snip>

"During Ehud Olmert's visit to Washington last month, I asked a senior Israeli official to explain what the prime minister thought would be the result of his policy -- quickly embraced by the Bush administration -- of isolating the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip. Since Hamas's coup against the secular Fatah party in mid-June, Israel has allowed in international aid convoys and continued to supply power and water, but otherwise sealed off the territory and its 1.5 million people.

His answer: As conditions worsened, Palestinians in Gaza would grow steadily more disgruntled with Hamas. Eventually, they would turn on their rulers, and the rump Islamic state that threatens to take hold between Egypt and Israel would collapse. Fatah -- which Israel and the United States are supporting in the West Bank -- would regain control.

In other words, Israeli policy is counting on Gaza's impoverished and largely uneducated population to stage the first popular revolution against a domestic government in the modern history of the Arab Middle East. It also assumes that people suffering from extreme privation will respond by demanding a more moderate government.

If this reasoning is far-fetched, it's at least consistent. Ever since Hamas won Palestinian elections at the beginning of last year, Olmert and the Bush administration have adopted a string of failed policies based on ever-more-unlikely scenarios. They began by betting that a diplomatic and aid boycott would either cause Hamas's collapse or force it to formally recognize Israel's right to exist. Then they calculated that the Middle East could be divided into "extremist" and "moderate" states, with the moderates -- including Saudi Arabia -- lining up with Israel against Iran and Hamas. Now they are supposing that they can back the weaker side in an intra-Palestinian power struggle and ensure that it comes out on top."

more

[Tom Joad]

4. First the seal it off...

Then they let in a trickle (and expect the world to marvel at Israel's generosity)...

It seems clear though that the policy of punishing of the whole of Gaza is done toward political ends. State Terror at its worst. Not only that, failed policy. Everything they have done so far has made Fatah weaker.

and we thought Bush was an idiot.

[Scurrilous]

5. Gaza is not Algeria (Ahmed Yousef)

<snip>

"The Abbas leadership has poorly calculated its political strategy, choosing to align itself with the Israeli regime and its Washington patrons in a bid to retain its hold on power. Yet it has compromised its legitimacy in the eyes of a large swath of the Palestinian public, and it has fallen into Israel's Machiavellian trap of sowing discord among Palestinians to avoid dealing with the real issue: ending the occupation, fairly and justly.

Voters in the occupied territories are under no illusions about who planted the seeds of the current strife, particularly as Hamas made offers - but was repeatedly rebuffed - to form a unity government as soon as it won the elections in 2006. Despite increasing intransigence by hard-line Fatah activists, Hamas even adhered to a unilateral cease-fire for 18 months in a bid to neutralize tensions.

For over a year, the Islamic movement's leadership has tried to avoid conflict with Fatah, yet confrontation was inevitable because American neoconservatives, the Israelis and even some Arab officials are determined to undermine a Palestinian government with an Islamic hue.

The combined economic blockade and militarization of Fatah forced Hamas to undertake preemptive measures aimed at preserving the integrity of Palestine's fledgling democracy.

Abbas' current moves to unilaterally declare an emergency government in the West Bank is a political gamble doomed to fail. First, Parliament will not approve deposing Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh. Therefore the only options Abbas has are to amend the constitution without a parliamentary vote, or to stage a military coup bolstered by Israeli arms and secret-service support in a move reminiscent of Algeria's FLN negating moderate Islamist victories at the ballot box in 1991."

more

[barb162]

6. I disagree with this analysis. People have gotten fed up with Hamas

at least if the latest polls are correct.

[richards1052]

7. What polls?

You may be fed up w. Hamas. But show me a single poll that says that Palestinians are fed up w. Hamas. In fact, the very problem w. Israel's policy of strangling Gaza is that it creates ADDED support for Hamas among Palestinians, instead of lessening support. If Israel treated Hamas no differently than it treated Fatah then Palestinians would be more inclined to choose rationally between the two. & Fatah might actually have more of a chance of triumphing in an election--that is, if Fatah can ever get its own act together & stop its nepotism, cronyism & corruption.

[Scurrilous]

8. Not this one...

<snip>

"Despite difficult economic conditions, the popularity of Hamas, and of sacked premier Haniyeh, is growing. According to an opinion poll published in the 3 July issue of Al-Quds -- the most widely distributed Palestinian newspaper, close to Fatah and funded by the office of Abbas -- if presidential elections were held tomorrow Haniyeh would win 51.38 per cent of the vote, Abbas 13.37 per cent and jailed Fatah leader Marwan Al-Barghouti 12.62 per cent. Salam Fayyad, the head of the emergency government, would barely scrape five per cent of the popular vote.

The results of the poll come as no surprise to researcher Ibrahim Abul Heija. Despite a concerted media campaign against Hamas -- regularly referred to as "oppressors" and "traitors" in the pro-Fatah media, Abbas's position, he says, has been compromised by Israeli-US support. Abbas is now seen by many Palestinians as cooperating with the occupation. In contrast, Hamas has succeeded in engineering an unprecedented improvement in security conditions in Gaza."

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2007/852/fr1.htm

[bemildred]

9. "Hamas has succeeded in engineering an unprecedented improvement in security conditions in Gaza."

Credibility is like virginity, once it's gone ...

I'm sorta surprised that Barghouti is behind Abbas there.

[barb162]

14. According to June 2007 polling, Barghouti would be ahead of Haniyeh

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research poll of 6/2007

snip from the newspaper article
"If imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti were to run against Haniyeh, he would win 59 percent to Haniyeh's 35 percent, the poll said. Barghouti is serving five life sentences in Hadarim Prison for murder and attempted murder. Cabinet minister Gideon Ezra recently called for Barghouti's release as part of Israeli efforts to boost Abbas. " snip

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/873665.html

[bemildred]

18. I love dueling polls.

Who is a right-minded sort of person to believe anyway? I guess the one way to sort it out is to have another election.

[barb162]

19. Don't you trust the Palestine Research Center pollers a bit more

than some dumbass call-in newspaper poll where anyone can call in a hundred times?

From PRC web site:
REASEARCHERS at the Palestine Research Center:
Ms. Aiche Ahmad, MA in Political Science
Mr. Ayoub Mustafa, MA in Statistics
Dr. Khalil Shikaki, Ph. D. in Political Science
Mr. Alaa Lahloh, Masters Degree in Political Science
Mr. Jehad Harb, Masters Degree in Political Science

PSR Survey Research Unit is known and respected internationally for its polling work and for its efforts to further objective survey research methodology in the area. Poll results are used by a wide variety of individuals and organizations, including political leaders, researchers, local and foreign press, diplomatic community members, and local grassroots institutions. The results of the polls are disseminated through publication in local and international press, lectures and meetings, in addition to the PSR mailing list of academic researchers, think tanks, diplomatic missions, and others. The Unit is committed to providing scholarly and objective analysis.

http://www.pcpsr.org/about/about.html

[bemildred]

27. I don't like any of them, almost all polls are bullshit.

Bought and paid for bullshit. At best what you get out of them are reasonably accurate statistics about the attitudes of the sample to the questions put to them. That is all. So even in the best case you get what you go looking for.

[oberliner]

21. They aren't dueling polls

One is an actual statistically valid poll and one is a statistically meaningless internet poll.

[bemildred]

28. Please see post #27. nt

[barb162]

16. Yeah, throwing people off roofs and shooting them in the streets

has a way of killing off opposition. The opposition flees, the oppositon is dead, ec., that sure is a way of making conditions more peaceful. Yesiree.

[barb162]

13. Was that some telephone or internet poll into the paper?

Where one person can call in or press "enter" 50or 100 times to skew the results?

[oberliner]

22. It was an internet poll

You can vote here:

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&u=http://www.alquds.com/&sa=X&oi=translate&resnum=1&ct=result&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dal-quds%2B%26hl%3Den

[barb162]

26. Those things are statistically irrelevant, statistically meaningless

(Like I'm telling you something you don't know...not!, I'll take a pass on voting.)

[barb162]

15. THIS ONE: "While Popularity of Hamas Decreases,

http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2007/p24e1.html

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. (24)

Anger and lack of confidence prevails in the Palestinian Street:

While Popularity of Hamas Decreases, and Status of Ismail Haniyeh and Mahmud Abbas Declines, and While the Public Loses Confidence in its Leadership, in Most of the Security Services, and in the Various Armed “Brigades,” Three Quarters Demand Early Presidential and Parliamentary Elections and 63% support the American Security Plan

14-20 June 2007
snip
56% support the declaration of the emergency situation and the formation of an emergency government and 38% oppose that. Support for the declaration and the emergency government increases to 59% in the West Bank and decreases to 49% in the Gaza Strip.
If new parliamentary elections are held today, Fateh would receive 43% of the popular vote and Hamas would receive 33%.
If new presidential elections are held today, Mahmud Abbas would receive 49% and Ismail Haniyeh would receive 42%. If the competition is between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 59% and the latter would receive 35%.
snip

[oberliner]

20. Except that one isn't a real poll

It's an online one.

As opposed to the poll conducted by Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey research which shows both Abbas and Barghouti finishing ahead of Haniyeh.

The methodology for that poll:

PSR sampling process goes trough three stages (1) randomly selecting population locations (clusters or blocs) using probability proportionate to size; (2) randomly selecting households from the population locations using updated maps; (3) selecting a person who is 18 years or older from among the persons in the house using Kiesh tables' method. The sample should be self-weighting, but we do make sure that the age groups we obtain are similar to those in the society using data from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. Reweighing is done if necessary.

A sample of 120 clusters is randomly selected using probability proportionate to size. Clusters are organized according to size (number of families) and geographic location (West Bank-Gaza Strip) in order to insure representation of all strata and clusters of all sizes. After selecting the cluster samples in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, 11 homes are selected in each cluster using systemic sampling. Total size of the sample is 1320 adults. The third stage in the sampling process occurs inside the house. Using Kish table, PSR fieldworkers select an adult (over 18 years of age) from among the adults in the house for the interview. Interviewees are assured of complete confidentiality before starting the interview.

Since the sample is a multistage one, two components constitute the variance in the estimates: the within-cluster variation and variation among clusters. We reduce the within-cluster variation by increasing the sample size selected from each cluster or bloc. By increasing the number of clusters selected, the error resulting due to variation among clusters is reduced. Among-cluster variation constitutes the biggest source of sampling error, while the error resulting from the within-cluster variation is negligible relative to the one among clusters. Hence, in this case the margin of error is dependent on the number of clusters considered in the survey. The number of clusters (120) and the number of households in each cell (11) ensure a maximum 3% sampling error.

http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/methodology.html

[Scurrilous]

29. From that poll:

"The implication is that the decrease in Hamas’s popularity could be temporary and that Fateh remains unable to benefit from Hamas’s mistakes."


A lot has changed since June 14.

[oberliner]

30. Another poll

Do you think what Hamas did was a coup against the Palestinian legitimacy?

Yes
51.8%

No
37.4%

No opinion
10.8%


http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16356

Methodology: Interviews with 863 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted on Jun. 21 and Jun. 22, 2007. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.

[Scurrilous]

31. Speaking of a coup against legitimacy:

Abbas to Dissolve Parl't: Sources

<snip>

"Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is planning to dissolve the Hamas-dominated parliament and call for early general elections that would only be confined to factions which are members at the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to exclude Hamas, sources close to Abbas told IslamOnline.net on Monday, July 9.

"Abbas will dissolve parliament before July 13 when the authority granted to him by the Basic Law to declare emergency expires," the sources said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Abbas sacked the Hamas-led unity government on June 14, declared emergency in the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and formed an emergency government led by Salam Fayyad after Hamas seized control of Gaza following bloody clashes with Abbas's Fatah movement.

The sources said Abbas, in dissolving parliament, wants to evade a necessary parliamentary approval for any political decision."

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=46721

[bemildred]

32. Yeah, that's the Mushhead-like part.

Elected legislatures are only advisory anyhow, right? Sometimes you need a dictator tyrant emergency government to deal with the loss of political legitimacy emergencies.

[oberliner]

33. Hamas boycotts session of parliament called by Abbas

The militant faction Hamas boycotted the opening of the new Palestinian parliament's new term Wednesday, effectively allowing Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas to keep his emergency cabinet in power.

Abbas established the emergency government last month after he dissolved the former unity government, led by Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, in the wake of Hamas' violent takeover of the Gaza Strip.

Hamas' boycott of the meeting deprived the parliament of the required quorum, preventing the Hamas-led legislature from voting against Abbas' cabinet of moderates.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/880826.html

[Scurrilous]

34. Hamas Boycotts Legislature Meeting

<snip>

"Hamas legislators, who won a majority of seats in the most recent parliamentary election in January 2006, stayed away from today’s session and said it was illegal. Salah al-Bardawil, a Hamas legislator, said in Gaza that convening the legislature “without arrangements with the biggest bloc, and with the Israeli arrest of Hamas legislators, was an attack on Palestinian legitimacy.”

The term of the emergency government named by Mr. Abbas, which is led by an independent economist, Salaam Fayyad, was to have expired next week, 30 days after it was created. Some Palestinian legal authorities say that though Mr. Abbas had the power to dismiss the old government of Ismail Haniya of Hamas under the Palestinian basic law, he had no power to name a new government without legislative approval.

Those who believe Mr. Abbas, who leads the Fatah party, Hamas’s main rival, did have the power to do so say that even an emergency government must be ratified by the legislature. But with at least 39 Hamas legislators from the West Bank now being held in Israel jails without charges, and the rest boycotting the meeting, it was not possible to muster a quorum of the 132-member legislature. Not even Mr. Fayyad bothered to appear at the session.

In the January 2006 election, Hamas won 74 seats and Fatah 45. Now, though, with only about 35 Hamas legislators not in jail, Fatah would have a majority of the votes if a quorum were to be attained."

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/11/world/middleeast/11cnd-mideast.html?ref=world

[oberliner]

24. DU this poll!

Abbas is closing in on 14 percent!

[barb162]

25. BWA! Error rate: +/- : who knows, who cares

But can we put one of those little disclaimer thingies at the bottom about it not being scientific?

[oberliner]

10. Poll Info

If new parliamentary elections are held today, Fateh would receive 43% of the vote, the same percentage it received three months ago in our March survey. But support for Change and Reform (Hamas) drops from 37% three months ago to 33% in this survey. Support for all other third parties combined stands at 12% and 13% remain undecided.

If new presidential elections are held today and the only two candidates were Mahmud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, 40% would not participate in these elections. Among those who would participate, 49% would vote for Abbas and 42% for Haniyeh. If the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, non participation would drop to 31%. Among those who would participate, 59% would vote for Marwan Barghouti and 35% for Haniyeh. In the Gaza Strip, Barghouti wins against Haniyeh by 55% to 41%.

http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2007/p24epressrelease.html

Poll was conducted June 14-20 2007.

[barb162]

12. June 2007 poll: 49% Abbas, 42% Haniyeh

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/873665.html

snip
If new presidential elections were to be held, 49 percent would vote for Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Fatah movement, and 42 percent would vote for his political rival, deposed prime minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, the survey said.


If imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti were to run against Haniyeh, he would win 59 percent to Haniyeh's 35 percent, the poll said. Barghouti is serving five life sentences in Hadarim Prison for murder and attempted murder. Cabinet minister Gideon Ezra recently called for Barghouti's release as part of Israeli efforts to boost Abbas.

A majority of Palestinians, 59 percent, said both Hamas and Fatah are equally to blame for the bitter factional fighting that led to the Hamas takeover of Gaza.
snip

[Shaktimaan]

11. since when are the gazans uneducated?

My understanding is that UNRWA has helped make the Palestinians the second most literate people in the mideast.

[Douglas Carpenter]

17. you are correct

that specific line kind of bothered me also even if I agreed with most of the rest of the article...although given the long standing social decay in the Gaza that goes back a long time..there is probably less educational advancement in the Gaza than in the West Bank

[barb162]

23. The Palestinians have the highest literacy rate in the Mideast

from the various sources I have checked, from the World Bank, UNICEF, etc. But that little tidbit of misinformation or ignorance or whatever it is by the author of that article is indicative of the overall "quality" of this article.