Latest poll gives Likud big edge over Kadima

[oberliner]

Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud have had a good three weeks, with no major slips, with brand new faces and with a good press, while Kadima is bleeding and Labor is disintegrating.

The opinion polls are responding in kind: Likud opened a large, decisive lead of six MKs over Kadima. The right-wing bloc, led by Likud, is also firming up in comparison to previous polls, with 64 MKs versus 56 for the center-left. In effect, the right is much stronger than the center left, since its count also includes 11 MKs from the Arab parties: They will not be asked to join the governing coalition and in the current political climate their only use will be as part of a "preventive bloc" in the Knesset.

These numbers are from a Haaretz-Dialog poll of a representative sample of the Israeli public conducted Tuesday under the supervision of Professor Camil Fuchs of Tel Aviv University's statistics department. The main question is whether the significant improvement in the Likud's showing is temporary, the inevitable result of the parade of new players presented by Netanyahu to the media at the rate of one a week - Benny Begin, Dan Meridor, Assaf Hefet and Moshe Ya'alon - or the start of a genuine trend. Only time will tell.

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1038981.html

Polling results seem to change with great frequency over there. Wonder how it will all shake out in the end.

[Kurska]

1. Israeli Labor is dead

I wouldn't be surprised if a new jewish left party rises up to replace it in the next few years, especially with israel's system of elections and it's low requirement for Knesset membership.

[oberliner]

2. Feted author Amos Oz says new leftist party will replace Labor

Check this out:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=124x224700

[aranthus]

3. Ouch. Not good at all.

A big Likud victory will doom peace talks.

[Vegasaurus]

5. But it isn't at all surprising

Every effort to push for peace has been met with increased violence.

The Likud and their followers predicted the mess of Gaza, and they were right.

There is no political will to withdraw from the populated areas of the WB, because it will simply be an invitation for more terrorism.

That Likud would be ahead in the polls is entirely predictable.

[Kurska]

7. If Kadima wins this election and labor survives

I will eat my hat, this up coming election will be a realignment along the same lines of the election we just had in america. Olmert will probably forever be remembered as the bush of israel. (The man who single handled destroyed a nationally viable political party)

[azurnoir]

8. Nope not a surprise at all

give the date of the last Israeli "incursion" into Gaza, absolutely no surprise, in fact very, very predictable

[Kurska]

6. I always wondered what it would take to see a rebirth of revisionist zionism in israel

Apparently the answer was hamas. This isn't good for anyone.

[azurnoir]

9. Hamas and Hamas only ?

Then why has it taken over 3 years? No, there are other factors here whether or not anyone wants to admit it.

[LeftishBrit]

10. There are lots of factors...

but there is no doubt that Hamas helps the Israeli right electorally - and that the Israeli right help Hamas electorally.

I also have no doubt that Olmert's scandals, and the interparty divisions in Kadima, have had a negative impact on Kadima's chances.

I really do hope that Livni can pull it off.

[Vegasaurus]

12. I don't know that Livni can

The country is leaning more and more right, as Hamas and terrorism can't be stopped, no matter what the leaders do.

Even providing all means to grow an economy and make a real society in Gaza, and they totally blew it, preferring to kill Israelis instead.

I wonder if Bibi will really win this time.

[azurnoir]

15. For "some" it probably helps make for

what those same people consider an "election disaster" in the US.
"Even providing all means to grow an economy and make a real society in Gaza"
Really what means things like blockades and economic isolation?

[aranthus]

11. Agreed. There are many reasons for this.

In no particular order off the top of my head: (1) Hamas; (2) Olmert; (3) Barak; (4) changes in the Israeli demographic; (5) Abbas and the PA. That's not an exhaustive list. I'm sure you can come up with other reasons.

[azurnoir]

17. Of course internal reasons have a great influence

on Israels elections, there is also the Regev Goldwasser prisoner "trade" and the fact that when Olmert's dirty dealings were discovered he had conveniently and for IMO pure political show and expediency left his political party Likud of which he was a member when the "alleged" wrong doings transpired for Kadema, it was Kadema who bore the brunt of his corruption
However not to be ignored is this emphasis mine

An MK who supports Netanyahu suggests Obama's victory will help him, because the public realizes that since there could be US pressure to make concessions to the Palestinians, Israel needs a right-wing government to "balance out Obama."

But Netanyahu himself would never use that argument, because he wants to build a positive relationship with the new president. Several months ago, he personally instructed Likud MKs not to criticize Obama or praise McCain in the press, despite their natural inclinations to do so.

Netanyahu made a point of being the first Israeli politician to congratulate Obama, sending him a telegram saying he was "looking forward to working closely with him to take a fresh look at the problems of the region, and to find new ideas to help build a better and hopeful future for all of us."


http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=122591005611...

[aranthus]

18. You're not wrong. n/t

[azurnoir]

19. Thank you n/t

[sabbat hunter]

13. not necessarily

Begin was a member of the Likud and he concluded a peace agreement with Egypt.

[aranthus]

14. Pretty much

The West Bank, Gaza, and Golan aren't the Sinai, and Bibi isn't Begin. It may be that only Nixon can go to China, but he has to choose to go. I don't think Bibi is going to make that choice. He's part of the crowd that doesn't believe that peace is possible. He's going to be in the pocket of the right wing, and that means no moving of settlements, no giving up the Golan, and every effort made to keep the Palestinians in a subservient position. The Arab side won't go for that.

[azurnoir]

16. Does what the Arab side think matter ?

Do you actually think that any progress will be made towards peace? I do not I donot think there is any real intention to do that, go through the motions, mouth words, yes by all means but do anything but use Gaza as an excuse for maintaining the status quo absolutely not.

[LeftishBrit]

4. Oh no. That's not good.