Attack on Iran: Rift in the Military and the Role of Commandos

[ProgressiveProfessor]

The targets for Israel's attack on Iran have been chosen: one is close to the sea, the other is inland. Members of Sayeret Matka"l are now conducting joint (often nightly) exercises with Israel's Navy SEALS (the "Shayetet") off the coast of Ashkelon and on the beaches of Haifa. While the deployment of the commandos and other ground forces will be done mostly by air, their evacuation, 4-6 hours later, will be accomplished by sea.

The role of the commandoes was re-defined last week to exclude the kidnapping of Iranian scientists. This change in operational goals followed a row among the upper echelons of Israel's military and intelligence community. Now, Israel's elite warriors are merely to return with soil samples and equipment from the facilities in the wake of the aerial bombardment. They are also to mine the area and to detonate explosives in sensitive locations. They are to avoid Iranian losses of life and collateral damage. Two Mossad A-Teams are already in operation inside Iran, close to the coast, having been deployed there by a submarine last week.

Faced with what it regards as an existential threat, Israel is reviving old and dormant intelligence networks and assets worldwide. Erstwhile members of the Lishka le-Kishre Mada (Laka"m, headed in the 1980s by Rafi "The Stinker" Eitan), or the "Bureau for Scientific Contacts" of Pollard infamy, were recently called to duty. They are working closely with physicists from the Weitzman Institute, the Technion, and Tel-Aviv and Beer-Sheba Universities. These combined team of seasoned intelligence operatives and top-level scientists have spent the last two weeks briefing the commando units in their base of operations near Eilat and in the nuclear reactor in Dimona.

Prominent members of the Israeli government, the Headquarters of the Israeli Defense Forces, and the intelligence community are against any military operation in Iran. They believe any such a move would be tantamount to geopolitical and, in the long-term, physical suicide. But they are in the minority. The majority of decision-makers are siding with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu who is pressing for an early military resolution of the problem.

Yet, the very phrase "military solution" is an oxymoron, claim his critics. Iran's nuclear program is spread over 60 sites, some of them deep inland. Redundancy is high and there is no way to take Iran's nuclear capacity out as was done in Iraq in 1981 and in Syria, lately. Better to wait for political change and voluntary disarmament as happened in Libya, they insist.
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http://www.analyst-network.com/article.php?art_id=3045

I have no experience with the author, so won't comment one way or the other. That Israel is looking at some sort of combined arms strike is not surprising. The claims that they already have inserted commandos is interesting though unprovable. Reports from Iran have their internal security bubbas going nuts between the demonstrations, possible invasion, and that their are *SPIES* in their midst.

[Hydra]

1. To address your point at the end

We already have Commandos causing trouble inside of Iran. Why shouldn't our best buds not have them in there right now too?

[ProgressiveProfessor]

3. Clearly an unprovable assertion for each nation

However giving it credibility or even making it drives up the pressure on the Iranian people from the mullahs and their lackeys.

[Hydra]

6. Excuse me?

Hersh exposed commando operations back in 2005. Obama never said anything about them pulling out, so why would one assume they aren't still there?

http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/01/24/050124fa_fact

[ProgressiveProfessor]

7. I can not believe you are serious, remember we are talking about teams of armed troops

The Pentagon statements make for great misinformation. Its an excellent way to mess with the mullahs whose paranoia knows no bounds. Outside of those statements there is no evidence of military infiltration before, during or after that period.

No one would ever expect a president to acknowledge that there were armed troops covertly in another nation.

Having armed troops covertly in a foreign nation is a big hairy deal. Its hard to maintain over the long term, expensive, and very risky. There would have to be a specific mission that was judged to be worth that risk. It would have to be something we could not get from other means, including agents already on the ground. While the US may have inserted individuals or small groups in the past, they would extract as soon as the mission is over.

As for Israel, its a harder call. Long term agents I would expect, but they would take the same approach as the US, only if there is no other way to meet the mission. Israel, perhaps more so than the US, will not risk having their people captured. However, with a strike on Iran looking more and more likely, its a risk they would take.

Regardless, by intent, while both may have happened or be underway today, for now its unprovable one way or the other.

[Hydra]

8. You can wait for the next 40 years until it's confirmed.

You asked a question, and I gave an answer. Since you obviously have some sort of investment in being right in this issue, consider yourself "right" and I won't bother googling other info that corroborates this.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

9. I looked. There is nothing credible out there, just speculations.

Enjoy watching reruns of The Unit.

[peacetalksforall]

10. A few years ago, a close relative of a special ops soldier told us that

that this soldier was headed to Iran. Who said anything about troops, as in equipped troops? These are spies we're talking about. Because both Israel and the U.S. have stated that they want to take out the nuclear facilities. It has always been said that the spy purpose is to figure out which targets are worth it, limit damage, the usual. It is so darn logical - why are you denying it? That is all that the U.S. and Israel have been talking about ever since before 9-1l and overtly since. You're right if someone left you with the impression that we have uniformed soldiers wondering around within Iran. The logic isn't there. Spies don't wear uniforms unless uniforms are part of the operation. Any film lover will know that.

The only issue is that neither Israel or the U.S. can be believed (at least in the Cheney administration). In this case they only always talk about targeting nuclear facilities, but we know what Israel did to Lebanon as short as two years ago or what they did to the Gaza Strip as littls as eight months ago? And we know what the U.S. did to Iraq (twice) and what we're doing to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Both the U.S. and Israel and the quieter UK and Europe want everything from India to Eastern Europe. They want their pipelines and seaways calm and secured with the help of friends in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, the 'stans.

But it may not turn out that way. In fact I think we need to say -

Good-Bye Jerusalem. Good-Bye Tel Aviv. It was nice to know you. And good - bye to other targets and hopefully Russia, China, and India aren't motivated to take sides.

Because as much as Iran is divided right now, they will come together in a nano-second to retalitate, with or without friends.

Good-bye tourism. It was nice to know you.

Goog-bye ancient treasures - Isfahan, Shiraz, Bethlehem. It was nice to know you.

Good-bye exchange groups for peace. It appears a will to use metal and poly and mineral technology and a mind-set that dishonors life is going to win - after all. It these maneuvers are just play acting, I say BOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Bad play.

[sam sarrha]

2. this smacks of the media all being on th Somi beach filming th Seals sneak'n in under their lights..

[ProgressiveProfessor]

5. Its really hard to hide that kind of stuff in Israel since its a really really small country

Kind of like the USMC trying to hide amphibious ops at Camp Pendleton. It could also be disinformation. I would expect CSAR support when the air strikes come, maybe some distraction raids, but the IDF is too small to do serious boots on the ground in Iran.

[bemildred]

4. Boy I sure hope the Iranian spooks don't read this.

It could give the whole operation away, endanger all those special forces working inside Iran, and make successful completion of this mission impossible.

[azurnoir]

11. Wouldn't this "super secret" information coming out right now

tend to bolster Ahmadinejad's claims that Israel is helping to create political chaos in Iran and completely undermine the opposition?

Why on earth would Israel ever want to do that?

[varelse]

12. I'm with these guys:

Prominent members of the Israeli government, the Headquarters of the Israeli Defense Forces, and the intelligence community are against any military operation in Iran. They believe any such a move would be tantamount to geopolitical and, in the long-term, physical suicide.