The Egyptian Revolution may produce a Lebanon-type Islamic regime

[azurnoir]

There are important differences as well. The Egyptian army is strong, while Lebanon's is weak. And the Lebanese Islamic group has a strong militia, armed and financed by Iran, whereas the Muslim Brotherhood has little military support behind it—at least at the moment. But it is allied with Hamas, which is right across the porous border with Gaza.


The following scenario is possible, if not likely. Mubarak will leave. Someone like Mohamed ElBaradie, the Nobel Laureate who ran the International Atomic Energy Agency, will serve as an interim leader. He is supported by the Muslim Brotherhood, and, in turn, he has said nice things about the Brotherhood. On Sunday, he told Fareed Zakaria the following:

“You know, the Muslim Brotherhood has nothing to do with the Iranian model, has nothing to do with extremism, as we have seen it in Afghanistan and other places. The Muslim Brotherhood is a religiously conservative group. They are a minority in Egypt. They are not a majority of the Egyptian people, but they have a lot of credibility because all the other liberal parties have been smothered for 30 years.
They are in favor of a federalist state. They are in favor of a wording on the base of constitution that has red lines that every Egyptian has the same rights, same obligation, that the state in no way will be a state based on religion. And I have been reaching out to them. We need to include them. They are part of the Egyptian society, as much as the Marxist party here. I think this myth that has been perpetuated and sold by the regime has no - has no iota of reality.”
This Pollyannaish description of the Muslim Brotherhood is misleading and incomplete at best and totally unrealistic at worst. The Muslim Brotherhood is a violent, radical group with roots in Nazism and an uncompromising commitment to end the cold peace with Israel and replace it with a hot war of destruction. Its very name undercuts ElBaradie claims that “every Egyptian has the same rights” and that “the state in no way will be based on religion.” Christians, women, secularists and other dissenters will not have the same rights as Muslim men. Right now the Brotherhood “are a minority,” but they are the largest and best organized minority, and they don’t play by the rules of democracy, using assassination and threats of violence to coerce support.


ElBaradie is their perfect stalking horse—well respected, moderate and compliant. He will put together a government in which the Brotherhood begins as kingmaker and ends up as king.


http://blogs.jpost.com/content/egyptian-revolution-may-produce-lebanon-type-islamic-regime-0
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

straight from the 'Dersh" can there be any doubt

[movonne]

1. Yes we want to keep them slaves...

[Vinnie From Indy]

2. It seems DU is under assault with right-wing fearmongering and propaganda today

"The Muslim Brotherhood is a violent, radical group with roots in Nazism"

I would suggest anyone at all confused about the Muslim Brotherhood to research the group for themsleves and not rely on FOX News-Rush Limbaugh-Israeli Right Wing Media Hate Machine sources.

Cheers!

[mcollins]

3. the MB was formed in 1948.

a bit late for 'roots in Nazism'.

[Lithos]

15. The Muslim Brotherhood was formed not in 1948, but in 1928...

There were indeed ties to Nazi Germany during the 1930's.

See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_Brotherhood

[mcollins]

22. Oops. my mistake.

That's what happens when you don't pay attention to the articles you read.

[bemildred]

17. Read Mafouz.

http://www.complete-review.com/reviews/mahfouzn/cairo.htm

A good read and a nice non-historical view of the "roots" of MB and Egypt's unique culture.

Any good history of the British Empire in the period 1914-1950 would cover it too, no doubt with this or that slant.

[Ghost Dog]

4. Nevertheless, it is useful to know what the hate machine is spewing.

Know the enemy.

[azurnoir]

6. my sentiments exactly n/t

[Jefferson23]

5. The perfect stalking horse? This is garbage. n/t

[azurnoir]

7. IMO that line was the cherry on 'BS' sundae n/t

[bemildred]

8. Lebanon is not an "Islamic" regime, and Egypt is not much like Lebanon.

Not one of Dersh's better efforts, he is better on Israeli politics.

[oberliner]

9. Hezbollah is an Islamic party and Egypt is like Lebanon in the ways cited

The title does seem rather misleading - he doesn't actually say anywhere that Lebanon itself is an Islamic regime, but rather that Hezbollah would like to make Lebanon into something along those lines. Whether that is actually true is certainly debatable.

With respect to comparing Egypt and Lebanon, there are both similarities and differences cited.

The only ways the two are said to be analogous in this piece are that they both have a well-organized Islamic group, strong middle classes, secular traditions, and influential Christian minorities.

On which of those points would you disagree?

[bemildred]

10. Lebanon is Constitutionally not an "islamic regime", or in any other way,

by any reasonable definition. If you don't get that, you ought to read up on the Lebanese Constitution and what the word "islamic" means when applied to governments. It is true that Hezbollah has a good deal of political power, but Hezbollah is not the government, and Hezbollah is not Lebanon.

Egypt and Lebanon are similar in many ways, both have people in them for example, and muslims, and are post-colonial, but not in ways that suggest one indicates what will happen in the other. Egypt was a colony of the British Empire, while Lebanon was French, with all that entails, and Egypt's constitution and politics are much different, and never really have been the same as Lebanon's.

The thesis of the OP is a shallow generalization based on superficial similarities, cliches, and stereotypes, at best.

[oberliner]

11. That is correct - and there are no claims made to the contrary (just a poorly chosen title)

The article states that the leadership of Hezbollah would like to transform Lebanon into something like that if it could - not that it has actually done so.

I disagree with the thesis of the OP as well.

I think a lot of fairly ignorant people are throwing out a variety of different theories as to what might happen next in Egypt

I'd definitely put the author of this piece in that category - and I am sort of surprised that such an article would be posted here in the first place to be honest.

[bemildred]

12. Hezbollah has stated over and over that is wishes to do nothing of the sort.

You don't have to believe them, but one ought not put words in their mouths and thoughts in their minds and pretend one is presenting facts. If you think Hezbollah wants to turn Lebanon into Iran, that is your prerogative, but present it as your opinion and support it with those facts you can find for that purpose.

I am not against Dersh, I've seen some good stuff from him now and then, posted a couple, but he goes off the deep end sometimes too.

[bemildred]

18. Some interesting bits in this regard:

Who is behind the Egyptian protests?

The role of the Muslim Brotherhood

Existing in uneasy alliance with the secular groups, of course, is the Muslim Brotherhood. Founded in 1928 in Ismailia by Hassan al-Banna, the secretive Ikhwan ("Brothers") has long been Egypt's most powerful opposition group. From the 1930s through the 1960s, the Ikhwan had a paramilitary adjunct and carried out assassinations of top officials and police. But its back was broken under Gamal Abdel Nasser, and in the 1970s Anwar Sadat rehabilitated the Ikhwan and, with strong support from Saudi Arabia, the organisation re-established itself. Since then, it has eschewed violence, and in 2005 candidates supported by the Muslim Brotherhood won scores of seats in parliament. In the recent upsurge in Egypt, the Brotherhood has been at pains to stay in the background, though its decision this week to take part in Monday's outpouring signalled, perhaps, that the balance had tipped irrevocably against the Mubarak regime.

Both inside and outside Egypt, there is concern that the Muslim Brotherhood, which is tightly organised, well funded and maintains a cell structure – along with decidedly reactionary views on social issues and a strong strain of antisemitism – might hijack Egypt's revolution and impose an Islamist order. Yet the core leadership of the revolt, from April 6 on down, cannot be said to have Islamist leanings, and most experts on Egyptian affairs do not believe that Egypt would readily swallow the ultraconservative views of the Brotherhood's leaders, many of whom are in their 70s and 80s. In addition, the Egyptian Brotherhood is utterly unlike either the Taliban or Iran's clerical regime in its outlook. Yet it provides muscle and organisation discipline to the anti-Mubarak movement, and leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed al-Beltagui, was quietly included as a member of the leadership committee.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/02/who-is-behind-egyptian-protests

An Iran-style outcome for Egypt? Why there are key differences.

Egypt protests: People to watch

Experts who know both Iran and Egypt say there are distinct differences, however. They note one critical lesson from Iran’s revolution that should inform Mubarak’s handling of the crisis: so far, the Muslim Brotherhood – for decades Egypt’s largest opposition grouping – has played a small part in the protests, compared with the critical role that militant followers of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini played in Iran in 1979.

But a more important takeaway from Iran may be the events of Sept. 8, 1978, when security forces of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi fired on antigovernment demonstrators with helicopter gunships and tanks. The opposition claimed the death toll from Black Friday to be 4,000, with 500 dead in downtown Jaleh Square alone.

“If Mubarak stays for awhile and there is a crackdown – then the dire predictions would come true,” says Ervand Abrahamian, a historian at Baruch College, City University of New York.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0202/An-Iran-style-outcome-for-Egypt-Why-there-are-key-differences

[azurnoir]

19. Thank you especially for the piece on Iran n/t

[bemildred]

20. My pleasure.

:hi:

[Alamuti Lotus]

13. Whatever the Dersh has been smoking, I'll take a hit or two off that

It's odd, I've seen panicking Zionists all over the internets pass the line that al-Baradei is either an Iranian stooge, a front for the Ikwanis, or both.. when he's looking more to be the guy who sweeps all this wonderful rage under the rug, and it's back to business as usual with under a new facade.

[oberliner]

14. Given your apparent distaste for alBaradei, what would you like to see happen in Egypt?

How would you hope to see things play out there?

[Alamuti Lotus]

16. a paradoxical, only partially tongue-in-cheek reply

The author refers to it as a "worst-case", but, um.. I guess it would be a start:

A truly worst-case outcome of the unrest in Egypt is frightening to contemplate. It might go something like this: The current situation leads, through a process of resignations, external pressures and interim governments to free elections in which the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest and best-organized opposition group, wins the day. The Brotherhood, which opposes Israel’s very existence, cancels Egypt’s peace treaty with the Jewish state, declares Hamas (an offshoot of the Brotherhood) an ally, denounces the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, demands that international forces leave the Sinai Peninsula and asserts Egypt’s right to send heavy forces into the presently demilitarized territory. The Suez Canal is abruptly closed to passage of Israeli naval ships that have been disrupting Iranian-Hezbollah-Sudanese arms smuggling in the Red Sea.

All these events spark serious unrest in Jordan, where the local branch of the Muslim Brotherhood espouses a similarly hostile line toward Israel, and in the West Bank, where a Hamas uprising threatens the rule of the Palestine Liberation Organization.

http://www.forward.com/articles/135055/

The author fails to mention or factor in the recent positive developments in Lebanon in his doomsday scenario (sidenote: Mubarak is/was a strong backer of the Christian/Fascist Lebanese Forces and Kataeb militia-parties, Samir Gaegea and Amin Gemayyal will have to find new patrons), but he may be forgiven: the zionist internet brigades are too busy freaking out over the impending loss of their dearly beloved Pharaoh and his service, and are leaking details in their diatribes like brake fluid from a cut line. None of that is really to be expected, since the Ikwanis are far from being as coherent and internationally organized as the scenario expects, but like I said, I guess it would at least be a good start..

On a more serious note, I would like to see the people's rage meet its full fruitition(**), not be bought off with trinkets and fooled into complacence by thin facades, and be joined by the ever-expanding undercurrent of revolutionary tendencies in every corner of the globe. Right now it is not only in the Arab lands that the heroic inspiration of the Tunisian lions is felt and emulated: indeed, as far away as China, Albania, Mexico, Russia, England, and elsewhere (but certainly not America, the land of Jersey Shore, Glenn Beck, complacency, and failing banks), there are ruling classes trembling in similar situations, or watch the current events with great fear--which is something all of them will just have to get used to.



(**)--I am sidestepping the subject of details, I know.. perhaps later, my focus is elsewhere now and time is short at the moment.

[LeftishBrit]

21. I wouldn't call Lebanon exactly an 'Islamic regime'...

there are Islamists in government, but also other groups. More a chaotic free-for-all, breaking down repeatedly into civil war. The nearest thing in the Middle East to the 'one-state solution' sometimes recommended for I/P, and evidence that under anything like present circumstances, it doesn't work.

Egypt has a rather different history than Lebanon, and hopefully will not end up with a similar level of civil conflict.