Israeli inertia on peace may saddle state with old regrets

[shaayecanaan]

'A prominent political commentator, Ehud Ya'ari of Israeli TV's Channel Two, likes to point to a quote from Ahmad Yusuf, a leading figure in Hamas, the Islamist group that has rained missiles down on Israel in recent days.

"If you want to know the future course of history, you have to listen to the hoofbeats of the horses," he says, borrowing a metaphor from the unifier of Germany, Otto von Bismarck. "Now if you listen to the hoofbeats of the horses of history, they are going in the direction of Islamism."

Ya'ari's conclusion: "They are winning, but we still have time."

Time for what? Israel has no intention of acting to try to shape the destinies of its neighbours. "Can we help them?" Meridor poses. "It could be counterproductive. I'm not sure anything we say publicly can help those we want to help. It's up to them."

But Israel need not be entirely inert. Last week a group of about 40 blue-chip former Israeli security chiefs, captains of industry and Middle East experts launched a plan called "Israel Initiates", urging the government to propose a peace deal with the Palestinians.

Zisser is one of its signatories. "The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is there for people to use against us, and if we don't act smartly to deal with it, it will be used against us" in the emerging regimes of the Arab world, he says.

Israel has so far been irrelevant, but the Palestinian conflict, perhaps another Gaza war, could make it suddenly very relevant. That seems to be exactly what Hamas is aiming for with its intensification of missile attacks.

Many Israelis, including the President, share the view that a peace initiative is imperative. But not the Israeli who matters most. The Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is so far showing no interest. A prominent political commentator on Israeli Public TV, Yaron Deckel, observes: "Netanyahu knows that if he takes any initiative for peace, his coalition will collapse. Five of Israel's 11 prime ministers have lost the post and made a comeback. Netanyahu is having his comeback now. None of those five has ever had a third chance. He will not risk power by acting on any peace initiative."

If so, this casts Israel as a bystander as history's hoofbeats take it where others will it to go.

Peter Hartcher is the international editor. He travelled to Israel as a guest of the Australia Israel Chamber of Commerce.'

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/israeli-inertia-on-peace-may-saddle-state-with-old-regrets-20110411-1daxs.html