1. Most of the PLO artillery was WWI, WWII vintage, and almost totally useless against the IDF or anything else.
2. The PLO did not have "hundreds of tanks" - those were Syrian. The PLO actually had "a few tanks" (my emphasis, Ze'ev Schiff), most of which were left idle during the invasion, or destroyed by the IAF without even moving once.
3. The PLO had about enough "light weapons" to equip 1 division, or 3 brigades. These weapons were mostly rifles, not for an "army, but terrorists". (Rabin)
4. The PLO was not "one of strongest militarily", it had roughly equal force to that of the Phalange and Haddadists. (Meir Pail)
To quote Israeli military correspondents, most of the talk about the PLO military capacity was straight out of "A Thousand and One Nights" (Schiff), and to regard it as a military threat would be "pushing the matter to absurdity". (Goodman, Jpost military)
So, where did this PLO SA-7 come from?
http://www.time.com/time/europe/timetrails/lebanon/leb820621.html"Ahead of the central column, Israeli jets had been bombing the town of Nabatiyah for several hours. A Skyhawk fighter, hit by a P.L.O. SA-7 missile, burst into an orange ball of flame. The pilot, Captain Aharon Achiaz, parachuted to earth, where he was attacked by a group of villagers. Then he was taken by P.L.O. guerrillas and rushed off to Beirut. There he appeared at a press conference, where he smilingly declared: "I have been treated very well. I am not afraid." He was the first Israeli pilot shot down in combat since the 1973 war."
A better breakdown of the PLO order of battle is given by this US military report. Here is the section on PLO preparations.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1987/SGC.htm "The PLO had ample warning of an impending Israeli invasion.
The massing of troops on Israel's northern border in December was
followed by a statement by the Israeli ambassador to the United
States that an Israeli invasion was only "a matter of time."12
Incidents such as the killing of an Israeli diplomat in Paris and
the ensuing retaliatory attacks in Lebanon by the IAF produced
war predictions in both the U.S. and Lebanon.13 Arafat's response
to these events, and particularly to the July 1981 confrontation,
was to increase his available firepower. He more than tripled the
PLO's artillery capacity from July 1981 to June 1982, from about
80 pieces and rocket launchers to 250; these he divided among
seven new artillery battalions.14 In addition, he took a number
of other steps to prepare the PLO fighters for war: standing
orders, along with range cards, were issued to Fatah units
assigning specific targets in northern Israel; brigade-level
maneuvers were held with the Karameh Brigade in the Bekaa Valley
using 130 mm guns and T-34 tanks; regional commands were
established in an attempt to provide some unity of command and
transcend factional loyalties; militias in the refugee camps were
given increased training to free the battalions in the south to
fight a more flexible campaign; shelters and emergency stores
were established in the camps and hillside tunnels; ammunition
and supplies were distributed from main dumps to likely areas of
combat; and fortifications were constructed, particularly around
Nabitiye and Beaufort. As the likelihood of war increased in
April, Arafat attempted to mobilize all Palestinian males from
age 16 to 39, a move which elicited little response. Finally,
Arafat raised the level of alert in 28 April and deployed the
460th Battalion, with T-54/55 tanks, along the coast between the
Awali and Beirut.15
PLO defensive strategy was predicated on the assumption that
the IDF would stop short of Beirut. For this reason the Karameh
and Yarmuk Brigades were pulled back closer to the Syrian
positions in the Bekaa and orders were issued to other units to
hold back the Israelis, but not at the expense of sacrificing
entire units -- in short, to fight a delaying action. The
objective apparently was to offer stiff resistance, yet avoid the
Israeli trap until a ceasefire imposed by the superpowers could
take effect.16 Although PLO defensive strength has been
estimated at 10,000 to 15,000 (including Beirut), only about
4,000 of this total were trained members of the Palestinian
Liberation Army (PLA); some of these were divided into three
brigades -- Kastel around Nabitiye, Yarmuk in the so-called "iron
triangle" south of the Litani, and Karameh integrated with Syrian
positions in the Bekaa -- and one newly formed tank battalion
near Beirut. This deployment consisted both of a series of
platoon-sized outposts built on high ground, with trenches and
bunkers protected by wire and minefields, and of other
concentrations in groves, wadis, and open areas. Additional PLA
forces were under direct control of the Syria Army in the Bekaa.
The remainder of the PLO fighting strength consisted of armed
militia in the refugee camps, particularly al-Bas and Rashidiye
near Tyre, Ein Hilwe near Sidon, and the Beirut camps."
In terms of equipment, the PLO did possess some 80 tanks (60
of which were obsolete T-34's), over 250 artillery pieces and
rocket launchers, numerous small arms, and considerable
ammunition. But despite this appearance of conventional
strength, no battle plan was ever disseminated, and the PLO had
no ability either to coordinate units or move supplies within the
battle zone.17"
At the time of the 1982 invasion, the PLO controlled most of the territory between the Israeli Border and Beirut. The PLO evacuated approximately 8600 militia and 2600 regular troops from West Beirut following the ceasefire.
As for the Phalangists who outside of the Syrians were the next most potent force in Lebanon, at their top strength did include more troops (30,000 militia with a backbone of 3000 regulars), but until the 1982 invasion by Israel, they lacked any heavy equipment and mostly kept to the Christian north.
So, your contention is that an anti-PLO element (Nidal) wanted to "push" another anti-PLO element (Israel) into attacking the PLO, and therefore this justifies Israel's claim that it had to attack the PLO because of Nidal?Actually, yes...
see
http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,902422,00.html"The terrorist organiser Abu Nidal (obituary, August 20 2002) was clearly behind the attack - one of the assailants still incarcerated in Britain was his cousin, Marwan al-Banna. By targeting Argov, wrote the author Samuel Katz, Abu Nidal wanted to "provoke an Israeli assault on Arafat's fortress, and thereby weaken his two most bitter enemies". But the terrorists' Iraqi paymasters - the third of Argov's would-be assassins, Nawaf al-Rosan, was a Baghdad intelligence colonel - also sought to embroil Israel in a war with Syria that would divert attention from their own reversals in the Iran-Iraq conflict."
As anyone can see (and did see, in Israel), the claim of any event being a 'spark' for the long-planned invasion of Lebanon in 1982 is sheer fabrication.
If there was no assassination attempt, it would have been something else - or perhaps even nothing else, since Israel can simply invent a justification, even retrospectively, and such deceit will be swallowed and lauded.This is by definition what a spark is, an event which ignites an already sitting tinderpile. Yes, if it wasn't the assassination attempt, it would have been something else.
Another example is the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in WWI. If he hadn't died, another event would still have triggered the events leading up to WWI.