The Logic of Suicide Terrorism

[Monkie]

http://www.amconmag.com/2005_07_18/print/articleprint.html

July 18, 2005 Issue
Copyright © 2005 The American Conservative

"It’s the occupation, not the fundamentalism

Last month, Scott McConnell caught up with Associate Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago, whose book on suicide terrorism, Dying to Win, is beginning to receive wide notice. Pape has found that the most common American perceptions about who the terrorists are and what motivates them are off by a wide margin. In his office is the world’s largest database of information about suicide terrorists
~snip~
TAC: So if Islamic fundamentalism is not necessarily a key variable behind these groups, what is?

RP: The central fact is that overwhelmingly suicide-terrorist attacks are not driven by religion as much as they are by a clear strategic objective: to compel modern democracies to withdraw military forces from the territory that the terrorists view as their homeland. From Lebanon to Sri Lanka to Chechnya to Kashmir to the West Bank, every major suicide-terrorist campaign—over 95 percent of all the incidents—has had as its central objective to compel a democratic state to withdraw."

watch with your own eyes on cspan: (realplayer required)
rtsp://video.c-span.org/15days/wj071705_pape.rm

http://baltimorechronicle.com/072205Haining.shtml

"One feature, as Robert Pape points out in his book Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, is that 95% of suicide bombers act in order to remove occupying foreign troops, religious ideology playing no part in their actions. Iraqi suicide bombers have arisen only following US occupation. We need to understand that we could cut terrorism down to size by staying away from where we don’t belong. Unfortunately, Western allies see getting out of Iraq and Afghanistan as just ‘giving in to the terrorists’.

So instead we mindlessly try to close every madrassa, video every subway and tag every citizen. It will cost gerzillions. And we won’t be any safer.

We’ll still have Fort Benning, Georgia. This used to be called the School of the Americas, but is now called the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation. It still teaches terrorism to soldiers from South American and Middle East countries favoured by the US--and, of course, there’s that nasty problem of ‘blowback’ that arises from time to time.

But if we stopped trying to breed our own terrorists while defeating the others we could establish a global mindset against terrorism. Terrorist sponsorship and training, like land mines and poison gas, needs to be universally denounced."

I think this could be the basis of a interesting debate to counterpoint the other more commonly discussed mythology surrounding suicide attacks.
I included one interview,one video so you can listen to the professor in his own words,and a example from the baltimore chronicle of the type of editorials one is seeing that refer to this research.

[Violet_Crumble]

1. What the hell are you doing, Monkie????

Not one mention of a global pan-Islamic plot to take over the civilised world that must be met with draconian measures that limit the civil liberties of Muslims? No lists of countries where the Muslim minority engage in criminal behaviour? And what's more, the article isn't written by a *Good Muslim* who blames Islam for, well, everything, and thinks George Bush is a hero and Israel must continue its occupation?? This isn't good enough! I demand more articles along the lines of 'terrorists!! Muslims!! terrorists!! Muslims!!! terrorists!!!' and less of this silly rational stuff!!

Violet....

[Monkie]

2. violet!dont pretend you read the article and listened to the interview

in 17 minutes and can then go on to claim there is no global pan-islamic plot to take over the civilised world.
It would take you at least that long to check if this professor, the american conservative magazine, the baltimore chronicle, and cspan.org are not all PART of this global pan-islamist conspiracy to take over the civilised world.

[pelsar]

5. what does this mean?

We need to understand that we could cut terrorism down to size by staying away from where we don’t belong.

if i recall correctly osamen be ladin bombed bali for the austrailians interference in East Timor......Isnt that what the UN is all about....or does this mean that the UN has to have a hands off policy of certain terrortories since there might be a backlash (i believe its called blackmail)


or is there an equilibrium where so many terrorist bombs are acceptable, since he does admit its not "just geographic"....or course to certain muslim sects now claim England is now muslim land as is spain etc.

pape is attempting to read the future based on the past...that in itself is part of research, but I would suggest that we're beyond mere geography

[Monkie]

7. you are suggesting,he has exhaustively researched

"pape is attempting to read the future based on the past...that in itself is part of research, but I would suggest that we're beyond mere geography"

this is THE point,his research directly contradicts the current suggestion that we are beyond mere geography.
which is why i posted it,research versus suggestion based upon?

[Violet_Crumble]

26. Pelsar, you don't recall correctly...

if i recall correctly osamen be ladin bombed bali for the austrailians interference in East Timor......

I dunno, did you maybe read the same shlock little Johnny Howard came out with a week or so back as I did? Bin Laden is the boogeyman who gets blamed for everything, it seems, and he thrives on it as his sporadic communiques taking credit and giving motives shows. The Bali bombings were carried out by an Indonesian group of extremists called Jamaal Islamiya who'd been responsible for previous bombings in Indonesia which didn't rate a mention in the world media because, after all, it was only Indonesians who were victims. Nor were Australians specifically targetted. The guy who was arrested and charged with planning the bombings said as much. With a bombing like that one, the more logical conclusion is that Westerners and Indonesia's economy which is highly dependent on tourism were the targets...

Violet...

[eyl]

4. Of course,

your objection to that thread applies here as well ;)

[Violet_Crumble]

25. Yep, it does...

..but I don't like repeating myself and what I said in my post was much cuter, plus the mods don't seem to mind that most of this current batch of new threads aren't I/P related so who am I to argue?

Violet...

[leveymg]

3. Chechnya? What "democratic state" might be compelled to withdraw?

As if public opinion really means a lot in a state controlled by its secret police acting on behalf of multinational energy conglomerates. Now, if we could only figure out which secret policemen stagemanaged what terrorist outrage directed by what bearded agent provocateur, we might have a handle on this problem.

As it is, I agree, religion has little to do with it, except as a means of creating and sustaining myths about good vs. evil for the general population. :eyes: :bounce: :evilgrin: O8) B-)

[Monkie]

6. good point, the articles definition of "democratic state"

doesnt quite match up with mine and i doubt those terrorists see it that way either.
I have yet to see reports of suicide attacks that PRECEDE loss of "civil liberties" (im having a hard time finding a blanket word to describe the variety of "things" that precede suicide attacks)

[leveymg]

9. Why do you think the US double-agents in London revelations evoked so

little feed-back, even here at DU? Are we so traumatized and confused by contending cover-stories and tinfoil hat theorizing that most people just turn off?

Can you help me understand why people aren't responding to the obvious? See, http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1651853&mesg_id=1651853

[bemildred]

10. a.) It's complicated.

b.) It's difficult to tell to what extent Mr. Babar's activities are fictional. Both Mr. Babar and his captors have an interest in exaggerating his importance (his, to reduce his punishment, theirs to show that they are not incompetent boobs.)

[Monkie]

12. for the same reasons raped iraqi children gets little response

if i can be blunt about it.
It cuts too close to home and makes us face demons we dont dare face.
its the only reason i can think of,and i have been giving it much thought.

[pelsar]

17. yes it is complicated...

more than that...i would suggest that its an ever changing environement as the different "groups" are now in a competition to see who can cause the next best attack (we 've seen this with hamas/hizballa/islamic jihad etc....competitions who can kill more israelis...)

as far as attacks go before loss of freedom....well, East timor would be an interesting one to look at.....suicide bombings in egypt.....cant say their democratic nor can we say they are "occupying anybody"....Saudi Arabia?...not much democracy there either

whatever his thesis and i dont disagree that much of the suicide bombings use a "occupation" as one of their reasons...but it can be a real reason, and pseudo reason....in conjunction with the islamic element. None maybe in itself enough, but together they make for a powerful cult following.....

[Monkie]

18. this is where we would continue my previous "balance of power"

argument :)
if the terrorists had the same resources as the state terrorists i'm pretty sure they would prefer dropping bombs on Israeli targets from up high in a strategic bomber.
I am pretty confident in saying that i am sure that the terrorist would also prefer having million dollar helicopter gunship from which to fire missiles at their intended targets.
Its a basic fact that if all you have to attack someone is a stick your a going to use that stick to attack someone.not that its right but it is a fact.
I'll use Iraq as a example as its not as contentious as others i could chose.
I havent heard of a SINGLE iraqi suicide bomber before the American invasion.Saddam was hated by a large proportion of the iraqi people,even violently opposed yet i havent seen any credible reports of waves of islamic bombers trying to oust his regime.
Faced with what THEY view as a invasion of their homeland by outside aggressors Iraqi people sacrificed themselves in an attempt to oust the Americans and their coalition.

There are even parallels to WWII here, in my youth i read a fair bit of comics and "boys books" and almost every story had a account of a heroic allied soldier sacrificing himself by storming a enemy position against all odds to "lob that grenade into the enemy pillbox in a dying moment".

[eyl]

19. Let me give you a counterexample

In 1964, the Palestine Liberation Army was established. It was a force composed of Palestinians, organized by the Egyptians and Syrians, and at its peak consisted of 8 brigades, with equipment up to and including tanks. It was effectively destroyed in 1982.

By your argument, in the years 1964-1982, there should have been almost no Palestinian terrorism; instead the PLA, a regular force, would have been used instead. That was not the case. Terrorism continued apace; and AFAIK, until 1982, the PLA fought only other Arabs (in Lebanon, mainly).

[Monkie]

21. i dont see how that per-se contradicts what i was saying

you are giving me a example that,when given the chance and the weapons, the palestinians DO want to establish a regular force.That it was destroyed by Israel doesnt seem to detract from that either.

Only if you subscribe to the view of terrorism as some monolithic pan-arab muslim conspiracy does your second point make sense.
That there were a small minority of madmen between 1964-1982 that found all sorts of twisted excuses to bomb innocent civilians in Israel doesnt translate for me into "the global war on terror".
My viewpoint is simple.
Criminal madmen should be dealt with by the criminal justice system (which in my view has too many powers already)
Huge injustices,crimes against humanity,aggressive wars and occupations only breed more madmen.
I believe it is the liberals "job" to be fighting this corner.

[eyl]

22. I was referring

to your contention that given the chance, terrorists would use regular means. As my example shows, that's not necessarily true.

[Monkie]

24. i know,i just think "8 brigades" is a "whole bunch of terrorists"

whichever way you add them up :)
and compared to the actual amount of madmen that blew up innocent Israeli civilians in that time-period its likely to be quite a large percentage of the "likely terrorists" even going by the argument that all palestinians are equal and equal terrorists or all who would take up arms against or whatever.

[eyl]

27. Not quite my point

I;m not claiming that, as a whole, the majority of any group will prefer terrorism. Rather, what I'm saying is that the sizze of the subset of "terrorists" didn't shink, even when the Palestinians had the opportunity to use onventional means - hence, it counters your contention that terrorism is taken only out of lack of alternative*


*Not that no alternative makes it OK

[Coastie for Truth]

20. Without telling secrets out of school

If a terrorist organization wanted to cripple an economy with relative anonymity - and relatively low risk to the terrorist organization, i.e., a high ratio of

damage
risk

a "Norwalk Virus" (norovirus, "Cruise Ship Gastroenteritis") would be such a weapon.

A lot of scenarios are possible.

This is a "hot topic" in the "Emergency Management" community and the Public Health community. See the CDC Study Ashford's paper speaks for itself.

[Monkie]

23. i think that is a interesting topic even if unrelated

i understand its a huge challenge for law enforcement to counter these asymmetrical threats.Its also unfair that the burden of success has been laid at their feet when they are by no means a cause and, for democratically minded people, they are the most important component in a sane solution to our predicament.

a lot of scenarios ARE possible,but historical review of past scenarios almost invariably lead to state-actor involvement or sponsorship.
The scourge of cocaine in America could be seen as a prime example of that particular problem.
Havent we all read the lamenting of a chorus of DEA agents blocked by "state-actors" ...

[bemildred]

8. Previous discussion:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=124&topic_id=92979

[Monkie]

11. oh,i hadnt seen that

i know pape's research has been much discussed on the rest of DU but hadnt seen it here.
I felt it was relevant to the current discussion and the wish by some to conflate the I/P situation with the london bombing into some kind of unified global muslim conspiracy theory.This theory is being vocally pushed by a variety of media in opinion pieces since the london attacks.

[bemildred]

15. De Nada.

Just trying to provide perspective. I think Pape's work deserves more attention.

[Village Idiot]

13. I continually find it interesting... and confusing...

that many Western governments have launched extraordinarily agressive stances (Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.) towards terrorism, often misapplying the title "terrorist" or "sponsor of terror" to inapplicable nations (Bolivia, Venezuela, etc.) over the past four years, when domestic defense is actually all that is called for...

"One feature, as Robert Pape points out in his book Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism, is that 95% of suicide bombers act in order to remove occupying foreign troops, religious ideology playing no part in their actions. Iraqi suicide bombers have arisen only following US occupation. We need to understand that we could cut terrorism down to size by staying away from where we don’t belong. Unfortunately, Western allies see getting out of Iraq and Afghanistan as just ‘giving in to the terrorists’."


Here's my point: If terrorism is a form of dissent, the GWoT is nothing more than an overly agressive means to stifle dissent, WORLDWIDE. I do not advocate giving in to terrorists' demands, merely listening to them within this context.

[Monkie]

14. the only explanation i can find is "strategy of tension"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,528099,00.html

"Everyone is wary of talking about a new "strategy of tension" - the name given to the collusion between parts of the Italian state, fascist terrorists and provocateurs in the 1970s"

http://demopedia.democraticunderground.com/index.php/Operation_Gladio

"The goal of this "strategy of tension" was to convince Italian voters that the left was violent and dangerous-by helping make it so."

replace "the left" with "militant islam" and i see parallels,this is only 30 years ago,not ancient history.One could even make the case that it is the same people behind this "strategy of tension" as the last.
Michael Ledeen being a good example if you want a name.

I must warn you that if you search google for "strategy of tension" you will come across alot of nut-job conspiracy pages spanning the entire spectrum from the extreme right to the extreme left.
But inbetween that junk are some interesting nuggets..

[bemildred]

16. The government has an interest in maintaining the "State of Emergency".

The best enemy is a controllable enemy, but almost any enemy is better than no enemy at all. Power is the expectation of being obeyed, and an enemy serves both to justify and to enhance power.