My package of 9/11 videos was opened

[ryanus]

A sticker on the front says that it was received in a "damaged or open" condition at the Post Office here in town.

Pure coincdence I am sure.

I don't know what the big deal is. I'm already on the list.

[FoxOnTheRun]

1. According to Alex Jones

there are major problems with shippings to foreign countries through US postal service. (they are considered terrorist material)
They simply don't arrive but UPS or DHL have made no problems.

But shipments inside US were not a problem, and you got your package.

[salvorhardin]

2. Yes. It is coincidence.

Somewhere within about 50-75 miles of where you live will likely be a regional Post Office. They give tours regularly. I highly recommend taking a tour of a regional post office sometime. You will be amazed that any mail ever finds its' way to your door much less arrives intact. Seriously, the Post Office gets a bum rap and some of it is deserved but it's an incredibly high-tech and highly automated system. Sometimes though a package will just catch in one of the sorting and routing machines and get banged up. Sometimes shipping tape comes loose due to humidity or a pallet of mail getting wet. Not everything is a conspiracy.

And look into getting that tour sometime. I did one in the late 1990s as part of a class on bulk mailing I had to take for my job. I thought it would be boring but it was one of the most interesting things I've ever done. The class on the other hand was deadly dull and I kept falling asleep. But do that tour.

[ryanus]

4. Let's do a thought experiment

Let's say I have ordered 100 DVD's in the mail so far this year. Let's say that 20 of those are 9/11 DVD's. Let's say that all 20 DVD's and only those DVD's have been opened. Would that be a coincedence?

Let's change the experiment. Let's say that only 5 of the 9/11 DVD's were opened, but none of the others were. Is that an coincedence?

Change again. Let's say that 10 9/11 DVD's were opened, and 10 non-9/11 DVD's were opened. Is that an experiment?

Correlation does not imply causation, but the more unlikely the correlation the more likely the chance of causation.

[Nozebro]

5. Excellent. Make 'em actually EARN their keep. EOM

n/t

[FoxOnTheRun]

6. As far as I know Homeland Security is

doing it for mail that goes over the borders

Prevention

The Office will coordinate efforts to prevent terrorist attacks within the United States. In performing this function, the Office shall work with federal, state, and local agencies, and private entities to:

* facilitate the exchange of information among such agencies relating to immigration and visa matters and shipments of cargo; and, working with the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, ensure coordination among such agencies to prevent the entry of terrorists and terrorist materials and supplies into the United States and facilitate removal of such terrorists from the United States, when appropriate;

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/10/20011008.html


We know Homeland Security has hired Primakov and Wolf from KGB and Stasi.
http://www.dissidentvoice.org/Jan05/Whitney0121.htm


But it's somehow strange that shippings to Canada or GB are difficult while other countries are not so problematic.

[salvorhardin]

7. Texas sharpshooter fallacy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy
http://www.fallacyfiles.org/texsharp.html

[ryanus]

8. Ok. Try this

Suppose we compare this to roulette. Suppose that instead of 36 black or red numbers with one or two green zeros, we have 100 numbers. 99 numbers are black, representing non-9/11 DVD's. 1 number is red, representing the a single 9/11 DVD. The chance of any particular number coming up is 1/100 (given the assumption that a number will be chosen and that it is random. Hold on to this).

Although the chance of any particular number coming up is the same chance as an other number, the chance of a particular type of number coming up is not equal. The probability of a non-9/11 DVD coming up is 99 out of 100. The chance of the 9/11 DVD coming up is 1/100. So where do you place your bet?

Let's say you bet on some non-9/11 DVD, but the 9/11 DVD comes up. That doesn't imply any causation right? Of course it doesn't.

But let's pretend that there are 1 million DVD's. Forget the first roulette spin. It never happened. 1 number represents a 9/11 DVD. You bet on a non-9/11 DVD and you have a 999,999 / 1,000,000 that the number that comes up will not be the 9/11 DVD. But let's just say the 9/11 DVD comes up. Just coincidence right? Possibly. The more non-DVD's you buy, the less likely it will be that the 9/11 DVD comes up.

At what number do you start to question the randomness of the game?

Again forget that we did any previous spins. 100 numbers, 80 non-9/11 DVD's, 20 9/11 DVD's. You bet on non-9/11 DVD's and you have a 8/10 of winning, 2/10 chance of losing. 9/11 DVD comes up. You lose, just coincidence. You bet again the same way, you lose the same way. Ok so at the outset, your chances of losing twice were 1/5 times 1/5 which is 1/25. Unlikely, but possible. You bet the same way and again you lose. 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5 = 1/125. Hmm, pretty unlikely, but you have bad luck I guess. One more bet, you lose, the odds of this happening were 1/625, or 0.16%. At what point do you question the randomness of the game? After only three times, the chances of the 9/11 DVD numbers coming up was 0.8%!

Remember the assumption that any number would come up at all. I am not guaranteed that any of my DVD packages will be opened at all. So let's say I have a 1 in 20 chance that I will have a DVD package opened. If I bought 99 non-9/11 DVD's and one 9/11 DVD, the chances that any particular DVD package will be opened is 1/20 times 1/100 = 1/2000. Pretty low odds for any paricular DVD. The chances that a non-9/11 DVD is opened is 1/20 * 99/100 = 99/2000, but the chances that a 9/11 DVD is opened is still 1/2000, or 0.5%. At what point do you question the randomness?

Now what if we did this game twice, the chances at the outset that only the 9/11 DVD's would be opened would be 1/2000 times 1/2000 which is 1/4000000 or 0.000025%. So if two times I ordered 100 DVD's and I had a 1 in 20 chance that one of them would be opened, and each time only 1 of the DVD's was a 9/11 DVD, the chances that only those two 9/11 DVD's is 1 in 4,000,000. Four million. Say another person has the same result. At what point do you question the randomness?

So the questions I should have gotten where: how many DVD's have your ordered? How many of those DVD's were 9/11 DVD's? How many DVD's in total were opened? How many of the opened DVD's were 9/11 DVD's?

If only the chances of 9/11 official story could be asked the same way...

[Make7]

9. How many DVD's have your ordered?

How many of those DVD's were 9/11 DVD's? How many DVD's in total were opened? How many of the opened DVD's were 9/11 DVD's?

- Make7

[ryanus]

10. Ok. I admit the roulette thing doesn't really hold

Because of dependence. Meaning, in roulette the ball can land in only one number each spin (not two, or three). And it could be argued that just because one DVD was opened doesn't mean that another couldn't. This reduces the likelihood that only a 9/11 DVD would be opened but a non-9/11 DVD wouldn't be. And the part at the end where we play the game twice is skewed also, because of dependence. What makes one DVD part of the first game versus the second? Why wouldn't it just be 1/2000 + 1/2000 instead of 1/2000 times 1/2000?

But even with different probabilities, the point is that at some point you must consider that the game is not random.

I am not sure how many DVD's I have ordered. I buy lots and lots of books online and a good number of DVD's. I buy from both individual sellers and large entities, like Amazon. So should I count Amazon orders the same as used books orders from sellers through abebooks? And should I count books and DVD packages as the same? If so, I would say that I have bought about 300 books and DVD's, two of which have been opened or damaged enough that the contents were noticeable. One was a 9/11 DVD, the other a book on something conspiratorial. So, if memory serves, 2 out of 300 were opened, and they were both conspiracy related. So what are the chances that anything at all would be opened (I don't know) and only the things that were opened were conspiracy related (2/300, or 0.66%)? I don't know. But I wonder.

[salvorhardin]

11. Just because the conspiratorial stuff was opened...

Just because the conspiratorial stuff was opened doesn't mean it wasn't coincidence. Now if you continued ordering and every single time you ordered something conspiratorial it arrived open then you would have cause to be suspicious. As it is now you're just drawing a bullseye around the items you want to be hits.

And do try to take that regional post office tour. Seriously. If you're at all geeky you'll enjoy the hell out of yourself.

[Make7]

13. I guess the real question would be:

If they didn't know what was in these particular packages (i.e. 9/11 DVD's and a conspiracy book), why would they single these packages out to be opened and not any of the others?

- Make7

[ryanus]

18. I thought about this too

If they didn't know what was in the packages and if they were only looking for 9/11 things, then what are the chances that the packages they opened were only 9/11 things?

Maybe it is not the case that they didn't know what the contents were, or more accurately that they weren't randomly picking packages to open. Maybe they have other parameters that indicate a likely match and the packages are opened to confirm. Perhaps the company or address, or they notice a lot of similar packages coming from a place that does carry 9/11 DVD's so they look in the packages to get an idea of how many of the things they ship are 9/11 DVD's.

Of course I don't know. But I wouldn't rule any of this out. And, like I said, at some point you question the randomness. I wouldn't never question it.

[Bolo Boffin]

17. When they start opening your bunny cages, start worrying. n/t

[Nozebro]

3. Consider it a compliment to your intelligence.

Maybe "they" are concerned that you don't buy into the "Faith-Based" 9/11 Conspiracy Theory and that as a thinking person, you might already or soon will - know that the whole thing is a lie, and you might share what you know with someone that's still in the "Faith-Based" mode. Like all those good people here aka OCT'ers. They're just your plain, average folks who are convinced by the "evidence" and by faith in "The System" that Osama really, really is the #1 EvilDoer behind 9/11.

[William Seger]

14. Hmm...

Consider this: How did "they" know these were 9/11 DVDs before they opened them? Or, if they already knew they were 9/11 DVDs, why did they open them?

Obviously, they were deliberately trying to drive ryanus nuts with paranoia.

[FoxOnTheRun]

12. It was probably someone looking for money or other things.

Remember, there a real criminals out there and they are not only in government.

Or it wasn't sealed properly.

[Ferry Fey]

15. Try further upstream

If you are ordering online, "They" don't have to open your packages to know what you are getting.

[FoxOnTheRun]

19. I'm talking about the normal thug

[Norrin Radd]

16. Don't worry. In these matters, the ACLU has got your back. n/t

[LARED]

20. The FBI can track anywhere you go on the internet

http://users.chartertn.net/tonytemplin/FBI_eyes/

[FoxOnTheRun]

21. I think it's more like the NSA

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