10/7: Election Model Graphics: Kerry's march to victory

[TruthIsAll]

Another great day for Kerry.

Even the AP/ Ipsos poll has him leading 50%-46%. And Zogby’s daily tracking state poll numbers show how the debates have changed the dynamics of the race.

Kerry averaged 320 EV in 5000 simulated election trials, in which he won 98% (his win probability). His EV forecast trend is headed up:


He’s projected to win 51.14% of the popular (state-weighted) vote. Here, too, as you would expect, his trend line has a 45 degree upward-slope:


The base case projection assumes he gets 60% of the undecided/other vote.
If he gets 75%, his expected EV jumps to 337 with a 99.8% win probability.
If he gets 50%, his expected EV falls to 308 with a 93.6% win probability.


Kerry is building leads in the majority of Battleground states. Of the 21 shown in this chart, he leads in 14 and is tied in 1:


This chart displays current and projected probabilities of winning the Battleground states:


Kerry’s average poll result is rising for the group of 9 national Independent national pollsters: Zogby, Harris, ARG, IBD, The Economist, ICG, IBD/CSM, Quinnipiac, Pew. In this poll group, Kerry has a 79% probability of winning over 50% of the popular vote:


Here are the latest 18 Corporate and Independent National polls.
Kerry's win probability has risen to 82% in this group, based on his 18-poll average vs. Bush:



Bush job approval is UNDER 50%. No candidate has ever won the presidency with an approval rating below 50%:


This chart shows that Kerry’s average lead in 9 national polls gives a higher win probability than the same lead would in a single poll:


Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the probability of a Kerry win based on current state polls.

If Kerry wins X out of 5000 simulated trial elections, his probability of a victory is: P = X / 5000.

Kerry had an average of 320 electoral votes in today’s 5000 simulated election trials. His win probability is P = 98%, since he won 4899 of the 5000 trials.

This chart shows the distribution of trial outcomes:


As you can see from the next chart, the most frequent simulation EV outcomes fall in the 310-330 range:



Want more of this?
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Diogenes2]

1. Thanks for the encouraging information!

Keep it coming! :)

[Fed Up]

2. if Bush does not suck in Fri. debate, will that affect these dynamics?

I'd like to think that last week JK sealed the deal. Let us hope he did. And in fact even if Bush does not suck tonight, Kerry will shine, I'm assured.

Things are looking better every day. Thanks.

[TruthIsAll]

3. Kerry is unstoppable. Bush is incapable of recovering.

The best he can hope for is to slow Kerry's advance. The more Bush attacks, the more likely he will be made a fool of.

Kerry may well deliver the knockout blow tonight. If not, he should next time. Put the Chimp away, out of his misery.

Everyone knows Bush is a lightweight, and a mean one at that.
There is nothing he can say that can hurt Kerry; each time he tries to land a blow, it will backfire on him.

[radfringe]

5. the spin

is that bush* will do better in town hall style 'debate'

the proof? they point to all the townhall meetings he has had in the past, saying bush* is more engaging to the audience

being "engaging" is something a con-man needs

what is rarely mentioned about bush*'s townhall meetings are the questions being asked by a pre-selected/screens/invitation only audience that have signed loyalty oaths or otherwise declared their support for bush*

questions are soft-balls, gimmees, scripted or otherwise phrased to illicit a "positive" spin -- bush* has no problems with questions as long as they stick to the script and end in applause

tonight - if the moderator does his job - the questions won't be soft-balls, gimmees, scripted or otherwise phrased to illicit a "positive" spin

according to dah-rules -- neither candidate will know the questions in advance, if true this forces both of them to think on their feet

more pauses, errrs, ummms and lip biting from bush*? I expect so

[DeepModem Mom]

4. Thanks, TIA!

[NJCher]

6. appreciate your hard work

Heh.

No, really, I do.


Cher