What will the jobs numbers be?

[Norquist Nemesis]

The report is due out tomorrow. Is Bush going for an October surprise?

I think there are going to be good numbers for jobs this month but I'm not sure how the number of jobless claims will fall into the picture.

Every day in my email, I have a search for 'marketing, analyst' delivered and it's been a pretty good indicator for me as to how the jobs numbers are going to go. But the weird thing is, I'm seeing LOTS (and I do mean a LOT) of these postings as government contract. So, I'm wondering how many of these are through the administration.

The thing is, when these are posted as government contratct (or corporate for that matter), it doesn't mean shit. Really! Potential employers can post for jobs...but are they really looking to hire? Or are they adding to their resume database? So far, it looks like they're adding to the pool of applicants.

So...anyone have any insights or inside track on what the jobs reports is going to say?

[vetwife]

1. 200,000 but they will be skewed and don't count the 2 at half the wage

[Norquist Nemesis]

7. That's around what I'm thinking

but I'm wondering how much anaylses will be shown by the media with it. I saw today that the intial jobless claims have fallen...for the week. Yet, there have been some announcements of hefty layoffs/cuts.

Since the debate, the media has actually been somewhat more 'revealing' in their reporting...at least the last few days I'm getting the impression they're a little bit pissed off and feeling like they've been snookered. It's showing. I'm seeing more reporting of refuting administrations claims, actual reporting of the truth (calling out the lies), and not taking what this administration says on face value.

Of course, it's very little of it...but more than I've seen in the past 3.5 years! and every little bit is a good thing. :)

I just hope if/when they report the numbers they give the whole picture and debunk the spin before the Bush administration starts the memes.

I hope there is recovery. But it's been astonishing they way they've been able to spin "we've turned the corner".

:scared:

[Joe Turner]

15. Expect a Bogus Number

above, maybe way above expectations. This administration will do anything to hold on to power.

Oh and then there will be a "little" downward revision to the Sept. jobs number after the election. That's the way these criminals play...as if we hadn't noticed in the last 4 years.

[vetwife]

32. WOW ! Lower than last month ! Blaming it on the hurricanes..Ididots !

That would create more jobs I would think in reconstruction ! 96,000 huh?

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. Nobody has been speculating, I would guess in the low 100,000

The economy has been on the ropes for the last 4 years, with no sign of improvement.The market has never recovered, and there were reports of massive corporate layoffs today. Chimp is going out in a blaze of failure a million times the size of his old man.

[Norquist Nemesis]

10. You have a good handle on the whole picture.

You're absolutely correct! (Notice I avoid using the term "right"). The potential pitfall is what the numbers will be though. If it's a good number like 200K - 275K, it will be spun as "see! it's working!!!" and the context will be unmentioned.

I hate to seem like a gloom and doom pessimist. I want every DUer and others that have been looking for months that translates into years to find a job better than what they had. But I also don't want the flim-flam that will come with a good jobs number. And that's all it will be...Flim-Flam.

[debatepro]

3. they will lie

[Norquist Nemesis]

11. No doubt

they will lie about the context.

[Carla in Ca]

4. here is a sneak peek

Kerry Needs To Be Ready To Slap Bush Down On September Job Growth

The September jobs report will be released tomorrow, on the same day as the next debate. The Labor Department is letting it leak that the estimate for tomorrow is just under 160,000 jobs added in September, which means that the actual figure will be more than that so that Bush can claim during the debate that September job growth exceeded expectations.

Kerry needs to be ready to pounce on this effort by Bush at turning a negative into a positive during the debate. When Bush tries to put a positive spin on the jobs picture, Kerry needs to remind the audience that:

[Norquist Nemesis]

14. He needs to smackdown Bush regardless

of the number. The bottom line is that you can't take 3/6/9/12 months of "good" numbers and claim it's a fabulous thing. You can't point the finger at "Clinton-recession"...take responsibility goddamit!

If Bush is going to claim "tax-cuts worked" he has to be called out on it!

[Carla in Ca]

18. Thats right...

They continue to say these are net-gain jobs. He didn't start at 'zero'. Over a million have been lost...he is denial about that, too,.

[catchthefever]

5. Probably show improvement

but for a <insert profession here>, "Welcome to Wal-Mart" does not a career make.

[sonicx]

6. around the same as last month. nt

[snowbear]

8. I hope I am SOOO wrong...

But I too think they will put out BOGUS numbers that beat all expectations. They'll say it's "off the chart", an incredible surprise, a miracle, completely astounding!!!

It's hard to imagine how it could be a great one.. but some economists were (((buzzing))) earlier about it being 150,000+ ..then they started rambling on that it could even top 200,000.

I - JUST - DON'T - TRUST - THEM --------- PERIOD. :mad:

[Norquist Nemesis]

16. Me either...and given that, what will the 'revised' numbers be?

We had announcements of significant cuts from major employers. And the thing is, when major employers cut it affects peripheral employers.

I don't trust them either.

[PretzelWarrior]

9. bear in mind...they will say WHATEVER NUMBER SOUNDS GOOD

and then in early November a correction will come out revising numbers downward but it will already be too late for us or for them.

[Norquist Nemesis]

19. That's why Kerry has to bring to light

the numbers of cuts that have been announced just this month alone. He also needs to be ready to counterattack the "just a pessimistic view" that Bush will throw at him...Kerry needs to say it's reality, not pessimism.

[snowbear]

12. come to think of it...

You know, you're right bransonfu.. They have pulled that "oops, we issued incorrect data" thing before.

----> Think about it.

When does Bush need a "pick me up"?

----> RIGHT NOW.

What's an easy way to do it? And on a day of the DOMESTIC ISSUES debate.

I seriously want to come on here tomorrow and say how WRONG I was... but I forsee some major fuzzy math being broadcasted in the morning.

[sofa king]

13. Could this be A-76 rearing its ugly head?

Remember how the President re-wrote the government hiring regulations so that contractors would theoretically take up more of the load?

As I recall, it had that interesting preferential contractor loophole in it so that large staffing agencies could lowball their bid to get a foot in the door, then soak the government the next time the contract came up for renewal.

[Norquist Nemesis]

22. What's an A-76?

*exposing my ignorance*

I understand what you're saying with the contractors...it's privatization. But like you said, the agencies are really the key. And I'm not seeing things that tell me agencies are actually putting up valid vacancy postings. I haven't seen anything credible from analysts that show hirings are actually occurring.

In fact, it's the opposite.

[sofa king]

28. Well, this is kind of the blind leading the blind, but...

Here's some general articles on "competitive outsourcing."

http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0201/022301b1.htm
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20021114-061327-5605r

But it sounds like you're more familiar with it than I am. A-76 is just the circular or regulation which has guided OMB's hiring practices. I uh, think.

http://www.govexec.com/outsourcing/

Since I don't know squat, I'm not qualified to really comment further, except to note that my friends who do know about this A-76 thing have repeated dire warnings about it.

I do know that you can't trust these bastards any more than you could trust Rush Limbaugh to fill prescription bottles at the pharmacy.

Since I suspect devious treachery at every turn from these kleptocrats, I'm wondering if they're counting "competitively outsourced" jobs as "new" jobs. Because that would be a real scam: cutting jobs in the federal government, re-creating them in the private sector, and chalking them up in the plus column when no new jobs have actually been created.

It's more of a question than an explanation, but hopefully someone can slide us a slice of knowledge.

[Hot Water]

17. It could be 800,000

And he'd still be the first president in 72 years to not have created a single job. Oh and that still leaves him 800,000 in the hole yet.

WW I...WW 2... Korean War...Viet Nam War....Gulf War----None of those presidents lost jobs.

[snowbear]

20. hey, I like that

Good way to put things in perspective with the 800,000 and still the worst in history comment.

I still don't want any ammo for them to (((SPIN))) and this is too easy for them to tamper with.. :o

[AndyTiedye]

27. Boosh is the Second Coming of Herbert Hoover

I think Hoover may have been the last prez to lose jobs.
Not ever sure about that, but the Depression did start on his watch.

[Thrill]

21. If Bush tries to use this as good news

Kerry can easily answer back that he still will be the only president to not have a job gain. And that the jobs that are being created are less paying than the ones gone while the price of EVERYTHING continues to go up. And he can also point to the announcements by AT&T and Bank of America.

[athena]

23. I think that in terms of the election, what matters most isn't the numbers

they report, but whether people are actually happy with the job situation. Regardless of how much BushCo. claim that they have created new jobs and that the economy is getting better, the truth remains that many people are jobless or have had to settle for lower wages. This is in addition to rising health care costs and lost retirement savings. And regardless of how many times BushCo. repeat that they inherited a recession, people can remember how they were doing 4-12 years ago compared to now. I think that this is one situation where the "black is white" rhetoric may not fool the people. I mean, how convincing is it to have the pretzident tell you he's improved the economy when you can no longer put food on your family?

[Norquist Nemesis]

24. LOL! Food on your family!

And you're correct in so many ways. It's a 'kitchen table' thing.

Those that have found jobs are not making the same as they were before...yet, prices are rising. Let alone that they are being forced to take jobs which paying are LESS than they had; or that they are having to take 2-3 jobs just to be able to keep the same standard that they had before.

[Hot Water]

25. Double lol

Do you think people realize what he did? In his chief official economic plan, which has to be put forth every year...which he has officially signed and accepted (that's important)--they have actually reclassified service jobs in the fast food industry as manufacturing jobs!

That means that someone now putting onions and pickles on a hamburger at McDonalds now has a manufacturing job.

They were that desperate to pump up the figures of lost manufacturing jobs that they took what used to be $15 an hour factory jobs and put them in the same classification as a hamburger hander-outer.

DO YOU THINK MANY PEOPLE ARE AWARE OF THAT? AND YES, I'M SHOUTING IT.

[Rageneau]

26. How many of Smirk's 'new' jobs are government ones?

We've lost jobs in virtually every area, but I'm sure I read recently (somewhere) that government employment has grown sharply under Bush. That figures, considering 'homeland' security and the immoral war and such, but airport screeners and urine-testers don't add anything to the economy.

Neither do the thousands of highly paid 'contractors' that have been hired to help Halliburton and KBR exploit Iraq privately at our expense.

[gavodotcom]

29. The difference between Cheney's and Edward's numbers is the LEAST AMT.

It works out to well over 1.5 million, if I remember the numbers correctly. factcheck.ORG 'll let you know.

[caber09]

31. ACCORDING TO CNNFN...ONE OF WORST MONTHS, MOST LAYOFFS, LEAST HIRING

http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/05/news/economy/challenger/index.htm

Will CNN spin info that counters their own? Probably!
I predict +300,000 revision for the year, and 200,000+ for sept...and we all know it will be bogus. Whatever it is it will be good news for Bush so the networks can spin all day and Bush can spin all night.


Futures already beginning to climb, this is too predictible/

[the_outsider]

30. My guess is around 100,000

Labor market is still very very soft with big layoffs announced. My friends are looking and they are having a tough time. Stock market also closed very weak. Could be because of oil though.

[the_outsider]

33. good call

will hurt * tonight