Electoral Vote Predictor October 8: Kerry 280 - Bush 239

[StlMo]

Needed to win: 270

Kerry 280 - Bush 239

...

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[Zynx]

1. It was a long crawl back, but we are back.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

4. Based on what we know about most of the polling companies,...

...and their polling "methodologies", I personally doubt that Kerry has been behind over the last few months.

Polling companies have also not been including the latest wave of new voter registrations that are taking place all over the country, and weighted heavily toward the Democratic Party. They also cannot reach folks with cell-phones...and quite a few of the younger generations use cell-phones exclusively.

[StlMo]

5. I agree. Kerry has likely done better than these polls.

Edited for editing

Polls do under-represent Kerry supporters.
That means Kerry is probably ahead much more than polling companies show now!

:dem:

[blueblitzkrieg]

2. Looks great except...

no way in hell is Bush leading here in NM. Gallup is wrong again. The WSJ had Kerry up 11 points here, and the Albuquerque Journal showed Kerry up as well.

[StlMo]

8. Great!

:kick:

[Dem2theMax]

3. You know what? If that's what we see come Nov. 2,

I'm going to break down and cry like a baby. Tears of joy, tears of release, tears of knowing my country hasn't been killed by the bastards of the last four years.

Please oh please oh please let me be crying in joy on Nov. 2.

[wryter2000]

21. You and me, too

My boss is on notice that I'll be on vacation on 11/3.

[StlMo]

22. I hope and pray we feel that joy of saving our nation.

:kick:

[demnan]

6. Gee one night of phone canvassing in Virginia

and we're back to "barely Bush"!!!!

(Yeah I know, couldn't have been just me)

But whooooooo hoooooo anyway.

[DeaconBlues]

14. What's up with this?

Kerry is doing worse in my home state of West Virginia (a traditionally solid Democratic state) than he is among the Confederates of old Virginia. This shouldn't be!

[Indiana_Dem]

7. Did you guys scroll down and read the explanations?

Click on that image of Bush from behind where it looks like Bush was sporting an earpiece connected to some wiring down his back!!!! There weren't supposed to be an earpiece's or any "behind the podium" shots!!! ??????

[Roland99]

9. electoral-vote.com is total CRAP!

Don't pay any attention to it.


But, one thing of interest to note is the Zogby poll in Virginia. Cool.

[9119495]

15. You should explain why. This is a great site to track the vote

because he awards states instead of doing tossups. Their will be no tossups after the election. It is easy to see which states will make the difference. His article on the senate the other day was spot on as well.

He takes hits because he uses unreliable polls, but it's not like what is on the map is there to stay for all time. I've used this site with my classes because it is easy for kids to understand. They don't need to have a map that is categorized into blue, red, and tossup with 20 states in the white. It's tough enough explaining why we still have the dumbass electoral college. I want them to have a view of how things could be on Nov. 3.

[Nicholas_J]

24. In fact the very fact that even using "unreliable polls"

still comes up with a Kerry win is very encouraging.

[StlMo]

26. Exactly!

:)

[Roland99]

29. The reason it's total crap is...

he's using apples and oranges to make a comparison.

If you want to get a valid, or at least more accurate, picture of the current state of voter sentiment, then the same pollster should be used across all states. Using right-leaning polls in key swing states is skewing that place like mad.

[StlMo]

10. A caller just mentioned this site on Morning Sedition.

Also edited for editing

Amusing

[GOPBasher]

11. That's awesome! Please let our momentum continue!

[brooklynite]

12. Let's be clear headed about this

It is not important that Kerry has taken the lead again in state polls. The margins are razor-thin in too many states (red and blue), and the uncertainty of the soft voters has caused, and will continue to cause individual state results to bob up and down like seagulls on the ocean. Getting too excited about the results today will lead to angst when some state inevitiably shifts again and the electoral count flips the other way.

What is important is that Kerry has broadly recovered in the national polls since the dog days of August, and that, all the way through the campaign, with all of Bush's money and the power of incumbency, this race is still neck and neck, and he's not breaking 50%. A majority of the voters, decided or not, aren't happy with the idea of a second Bush term, and, if W can't win them over in the last three weeks, they're most likely to break for Kerry come election day, which will nudge the individual state tallys over the line in our favor.

[StlMo]

13. It is important that Kerry has an Electoral College lead.

Edited for typo

It is important that Kerry has an Electoral College lead (which is almost certainly wider than the polls show).
The national polls are really only valuable as an even rougher estimate of the Electoral College (which, of course, actually elects Presidents).
Yes, we should remember that the estimates will fluctuate, but given the likelihood that they are low balling Kerry support, we should be happy that they show Kerry winning.

[StlMo]

16. Do not stop fighting against Bush. Do enjoy the fact that Kerry is ahead.

Do not stop fighting against Bush.

Do enjoy the fact that Kerry is ahead.

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

17. Umm looks like it's RED ALERT time again.

AssCroft re-arrest someone from 2 years ago...or in other news "Bin Laden Redetermined to Strike in the USA!"

[StlMo]

18. Bingo

:kick:

[StlMo]

19. Give 'em hell, John!

:kick:

[StlMo]

20. It does look beautiful, expatriot.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1004235

[johnnyrocket]

23. My guess is CNN isn't talking about the EV count anymore...

now that the polls have Kerry ahead.

[StlMo]

25. Yes. No doubt the CNN Media Whores will avoid showing that Kerry is ahead.

.

[George W. Dunce]

27. In fact

CNN just reported that Bush has it "Locked up" in Arizona and Missouri. Kerry no longer running TV adds in either sate. They are also saying that there is only 12 Battleground States left. They did say that CO and NJ are toss ups.

[Grown2Hate]

28. About AZ... this BLOWS my mind.

I live here, and I see a TON of Kerry/Edwards stickers, get nothing but GREAT comments about my shirt and buttons (the "John Kerry: Bringing Complete Sentences Back to the White House" shirt), and I come across NO ONE supporting Bush. And I live in EAST Mesa, completely run by Mormons. And of the two Mormons I know personally, one of them is SOLID Kerry, and the other VERY soft Bush. So I just don't see it. Sure, we have our share of freaking "W" stickers, but not overwhelming. AZ WILL surprise some people on Nov. 2nd, if in no other way than being a LOT closer than suspected. TURN AZ BLUE!!!

[demzilla]

30. Latest Zogby interactive has AZ tied -- Chimp 48.8 Kerry 48.2

If he's right, it's THAT close. Other polls show a wider gap. The truth is probably somewhere in between -- 4 or 5 points. I think it's doable. I've never seen such a Dem field effort here, and there are a lot of moderate Repugs and independents who are fed up with Chimpy.

Just get out there and work for every vote!

[ciaobox]

31. Add 5-8 Points to anything on electoral-vote.com

Most of their polls come from right-leaning sources. This means the reality is probably Kerry 320+. Bush is doomed. DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMEEEEEEED!

[Out the Parasites]

32. I look like this everytime I click on the Electoral Vote Predictor!!!

[Homerr]

33. That's funny, I look the same way.