Some Bad News About Yesterday's New Voter Registrations in NC

[HFishbine]

It was reported yesterday that NC was seeing a record number of new voter registrations. An examination of some of the details (1) dampens the spririts. We're going to have to push like hell on our GOTV efforts.

(The possible good news is that Dem registrations are suprassing R registrations in urban areas where GOTV efforts should be more effective.)

NEW VOTER REGISTRATIONS SINCE JANUARY 01, 2004
------------------------------------------------

REPUBLICANS: + 103,813
DEMOCRATS: + 96,065
UNAFILIATED: + 83,258

WHITE: + 190,031
BLACK: + 71,286

Bush won NC in 2000 by about 375,000 votes. (2) The statistics above are through October 2, 2004, so there is always the possibility that Dems succeeded in outpacing Rs in the last week (registration deadline is today), but it's certain that the get-out-the-vote effort is going to be extremely important in NC.

1) http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/index_data.html
2) http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/

[WI_DEM]

1. that was what I was wondering when it had been posted

yesterday about "record registration" in NC yesterday without having the statistics about which party it is favoring. Thank you. Hopefully ours will show up and theirs won't.

[demnan]

2. This isn't bad news

you weren't expecting a landslide for Democrats in an Republican state, were you?

The good news here is that the sum of the Dems and the Unafiliated is more than the number of Republicans.

A lot of independents are voting for Kerry this year, although he may not sweep in as many members of Congress as we would like.

[wildeyed]

5. NC is not a republican state.

500,000 more registed dems than repugs in NC. We tend to vote conservative in presidential elections, but we have a dem governor and dem senators (Edwards belongs to us). I heard that we only missed giving Clinton our electoral votes by 1000 in '92.

[HFishbine]

10. Yes (and almost)

You're right about the dems/repug voters. In fact, you under report the difference. There are currently 651,619 more registered dems than repubs.

Clinton lost to Bush I by about 20,000 votes in 1992.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/

[Philostopher]

7. Just because they register as Republicans ...

doesn't mean they'll vote that way in a general election, either. If it's not a primary, everybody gets the same ballot. The Republicans obviously are registering people they think should vote Republican, but it's not like they can follow them all to the polls and make sure evey single one votes for Bush*, either. Just means they got more response to their GOTV registration efforts.

[mmonk]

3. The dems were having success

in the registering of college students, the repubs in churches.

[wildeyed]

4. I have been aware of the discrepancy for awhile.

My understanding is that the numbers represent net change rather than gross change. Meaning it doesn't count change of address, etc.

Plus the rate of registration in my city (Charlotte) was huge last week. The small volunteer group I work with managed to do 300. I don't know how many were new vs. change of address. But every time we make contact with a voter, look them in the eye and say 'please vote', it ups the chance that they actually will by 10%.

I agree that GOTV will be very important. We still have considerably more dems than pubs in NC, we just need to get them to vote. Kerry and DNC still have paid troop on the ground so they must think we are worth fighting for. And getting Erskine Bowles elected is of paramount importance. Winning back the senate is almost as important as the presidency. And NC has a history of electing dem senators, so that is really doable.

We need to fight for this state!

[wildeyed]

6. Can you post a link to yesterday's discussion?

I missed it. Thanks!

[HFishbine]

12. Try searching

"NC" or "North Carolina" and "voter registration."

[HFishbine]

8. I should add (on the plus side)

Dems still far outnumber Rs in NC:

TOTALS (as of Oct. 2)

Dems: 2,488,221
Repubs: 1,836,602
UA: 974,821

Dems still have a 651,619 voter edge over Rs (a 15% advantage). We just have to turn out.

[WI_DEM]

19. but many of those democrats in that number have been voting

republican for president for years--which is why NC hasn't gone democratic in a presidential race since 1976. Clinton came closest thanks to Ross Perot peeling votes away from Bush I.

[slackmaster]

9. Unaffiliated seems to be all the rage now

It's certainly grown here in California.

[Triana]

23. I'm reg'd as unaffiliated...

...I vote Dem

[HFishbine]

25. Me too

With an occasional R vote for sheriff.

[Polemonium]

26. Unaffiliated represents allot of the new voters, prob more Dems

We've signed up allot of folks here who have not voted in 10 - 50 years, and most of them have said they want Bush gone, but don't have any opinion on the parties (overseas voters). Who knows if rethugs are saying the same thing, but I'd put money on the Unaffiliated's helping us by a fair margin.

[nolabels]

34. Maybe some like to make em pay at the ballot box

Federal deficit forecast at $477B
By Peronet Despeignes, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The federal budget deficit will reach $477 billion this year, the biggest ever in dollar terms, the Congressional Budget Office said Monday.
The deficit hit $375 billion in 2003, the highest in dollar terms ever. The previous record was $290 billion in 1992.
By Tim Dillon, USA TODAY

The forecast comes as Democrats running against President Bush, and disgruntled conservatives, complain that the deficit and spending are out of control.
(snip)
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2004-01-26-def_x.htm

Btw, is okay with the Gee-Men that we get the scoop from USAtoday

Indymedia Server Raided by FBI
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x890521

[blm]

11. That doesn't match what we were told a few weeks ago.

Maybe the person from BOE was talking about particular counties when she said that we had outregistered Repubs 4 to 1.

My theory on the unaffiliated was that they felt they should be Republicans but were too uncomfortable committing.

[HFishbine]

13. There are definitely some counties

where new registrations are heavily favoring dems -- specifically urban counties.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. We are slightly ahead based on the white/black breakdown

we get about half the whites and 90% of the blacks.

[HFishbine]

15. Not sure I see your point

90% of a minority block? Umm, okay.

[sonicx]

18. didn't clinton get 90%+ of blacks?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

22. Gore got 90% of NC's blacks.

PDF: http://www.jointcenter.org/selpaper/pdffiles/blackvot/2000/BlackVote2000.pdf

HTML: http://216.239.41.104/search?q=cache:8Z-PrsclD2UJ:www.jointcenter.org/selpaper/pdffiles/blackvot/2000/BlackVote2000.pdf+black+votes+2000+Gore+Bush&hl=en

[DemocracyInaction]

16. I've been biting my tongue about a lot of these registation stories

We assume they are basically all Dem and that just isn't so. The "church people" have been out in droves registering republican voters. In a lot of these rich kid colleges, the kids are registering in droves as republicans. This might end up being a wash. Or it may be that the Dems have an edge but will it be enough to really change a state?? I've seen voter registration drives before that had everyone excited and in the end basically few of them ever showed up to vote. In fact after the last debate on the front page of my local newspaper (and in a very dem area)was a headline story of kids at the local state university watching the debate and how both candidates failed to excite them.........gees.

[wildeyed]

35. I think there is some truth to what you are saying.

Just 'cause you get someone to register does not mean they will show up to vote. Part of the plan has to include turning out the new voters with phone calls, letters, and providing rides for those who need it. This part is much more difficult and requires more discipline that showing up on a sunny fall day to register people.

I don't underestimate the pubs either. They are a fair bit more organized than we are and they work hard. But I am a good fighter, too and I am not conceding this battle just 'cause I am not guaranteed an easy win. I will fight to the end.

And again, I will point out that there is more at stake on NC than the presidency. We have a very competitive senate candidate in Erskine Bowles and we need to give him every bit of our support, too.

[Awsi Dooger]

36. I've been attacked on DU for posting we are too optimistic on registration

In fact, yesterday someone specifically mentioned North Carolina as an example where I didn't know what I was talking about.

I look at dozens of online newspapers every day and the raw numbers continue to scream our net registration edge is much lower than DUers believe, especially in the higher populus states.

Plus, consider that in 2000 Gore received 86% of Democratic support compared to 91% of Republicans who voted for Bush. A 50/50 election was a very good indicator of party betrayal likelihood. You can lower that number given the obscene figures in DINO states and our frenzy to oust Bush, but it is still probable Bush will receive 1-3% edge in party switching even in the battleground states.

Kerry needs to win this this thing on swaying preference, specifically white women.

[Fluffdaddy]

17. Like I said yesterday, NC is a Solid Red State. And

No amount of wishful thinking is going to change that. My ass still hurts from the bashing I take for giving my opinion.

[Renew Deal]

20. Here is more bashing

Depends on the context. They have a Democratic Governor and Senator. There is a good chance that a Democratic senator will be elected this year to replace Edwards. It's not solid red.

[HFishbine]

21. Your ass should hurt

When you make comments like, "To many Confederate flag Red-necks" in North Carolina.

[Fluffdaddy]

31. Sorry.....But

"When you make comments like, "To many Confederate flag Red-necks" in North Carolina."


The Truth will set you free.

To many Rebel yell screaming, Confederate flag waving Red-necks in North Carolina to every go Red to Blue in "THIS" election..........Sorry. I wish I was wrong, but I'm not.



BTW:In case you haven't notice, I Hate that Confederate Flag. It sends chills down my spine every time I see it.



GO win this debate............. Kerry

[HFishbine]

32. Errrr, okeee doke

"To (SIC) many Rebel (SIC) yell screaming, Confederate (SIC) flag waving Red-necks (SIC) in North Carolina to every (SIC) go Red (SIC) to Blue (SIC)..."

You think so, huh?

[Triana]

24. Full of Rural Rednecks...

...it is and will be a Red State, I have to agree with FD. It has its pockets of liberals/Dems but as a State it's Repig-dominated. I'd LOVE to be proven wrong though! Wouldn't complain a bit.

[HFishbine]

27. I don't think you know what you are talking about

Democratic governor, democratic senator who's now running for VP (you may have heard of him), democratic Lt. Gov, Democratic majority in state legislature and registered dems outnumber registered Rs by 15%. The only reason NC goes dem in the presidential elections is because Dem candidates haven't contested it.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

29. How is it they have a Dem gov?

[Supersedeas]

28. Local stations in Greensboro reporting illegal aliens registering under

the motor voter law.

Are they prepping the public for Hood/Blackwell type mass invalidations?

[Carolinian]

30. Every unaffiliated that I registered was voting Democratic.

[GOPBasher]

33. NC is a repug state..

We shouldn't waste time and money there. It's not a state we'll win, and it doesn't matter.