Des Moines Register Warns Dean to Re-think Strategy

[DemBones DemBones]

Yepsen: There's cause for pause


By DAVID YEPSEN
Register Political Columnist
01/11/2004
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The entire column is worth reading but I was particularly interested in the revelations I've highlighted below:


"Saturday's new poll shows Dean at 30 percent, Richard Gephardt at 23 percent, John Kerry at 18 percent and John Edwards at 11 percent. All others were in single digits. The poll of 640 likely caucus-goers was taken Jan. 5-8, and has a margin of error of 4 points. That's good news for Dean but it also contains a warning: His numbers have been around that figure for a month now and over two-thirds of likely caucus-goers are either still undecided or for someone else."

"It should prompt him to re-think something: There's talk in his campaign of trying to help Kerry win second place here. The gambit goes like this: Once Dean sees he has won the most delegates at a caucus, any extra Dean supporters will be shifted to Kerry's preference group to help Kerry beat Gephardt for second. The idea is that an unexpected second-place showing for Kerry in Iowa would help boost Kerry against Wesley Clark for second place in New Hampshire, and Clark is the guy Dean fears most in the contests down South."

"Complicated? You bet. Trying to eliminate three opponents in just two contests is cute. Perhaps too cute."




Cute? Or dishonest politics? Old-style, dishonest politics, I'd say. Throwing some of your votes to Kerry to hurt Gephardt in Iowa and Clark in NH is a sneaky strategy and it would serve Dean right if Kerry ended up winning NH after a second in Iowa. Kerry can beat Dean in the South, too.

More . . .

http://DesMoinesRegister.com/opinion/stories/c5917686/23223609.html

[joeybee12]

1. Kerry doesn't have a prayer anywhere...

...he's sinking faster than a rock.

[jjmalonejr]

3. Keep telling yourself that.

We'll talk about it again in February.

[XanaDUer]

4. It ain't over

'til it's over.

[GreenArrow]

12. Not a Kerry Supporter

but he's gonna win.

[Fleshdancer]

2. Didn't Gephardt have the same sort of plan?

I'll have to hunt down the article, but I remember reading something a few weeks ago talking about how Gephardt's campaign was going to try to convince supporters of other campaigns to join forces for the sole purpose of beating Dean. Something involving cell phones. I can't remember, I'll go look for the article.

[jjmalonejr]

5. Well, his supporters did.

Don't know if it's organized from the top down, but there was a Gephardt supporter posting such a strategy on a Kerry forum several days ago. His idea: throw support Gep's way to stop Dean.

I told him I wasn't interested in stopping Dean. I'm out to see Kerry elected President. How diverting support to Gep helps is beyond me.

I don't like these kinds of strategies and the seem to me to be just a load of crap.

[markus]

6. Are you from a caucus state, DemBones?

I don't think this is in any way dishonest. This is how the game is played. I'm sure all of the candidates have a book of strategies for different circumstances, and would ideally try to carry them through.

The advent of cell phones, Blackberry/RIM pagers, wireless PCs and PDAs is going to make this sort of thing even more possible, in a command and control sense.

[DemBones DemBones]

16. Iowa is a caucus state and

the editorial is in an Iowa paper. The writer stops short of calling it dishonest, saying it's "cute. Maybe too cute."

I live in a primary state and it certainly seems dishonest to me. It asks people to change their vote from their favorite to another candidate in order to HURT a third candidate.

[Lobo_13]

7. Too bad the strategy is wrong

I was at my last precinct captain meeting yesterday. There was no mention of orders to help Kerry win.

Strategies were suggested that covered a broad range of options from encouraging undecideds to helping candidates close to viability make it rather than take a chance on having them break for someone else.

I imagine they would have let me know if they wanted me to help Kerry get second place.

[DemBones DemBones]

9. I doubt they'd tell the precinct captains this until

the last minute, though, in order not to let everyone know.

[Lobo_13]

11. Yeah, that must be it

Nothing like making 2200 calls in the hours leading up to the caucus to make final pronouncements that will make it even MORE complicated.

Do you not understand the enormity of what's involved here?

There will be 2200 precincts doing the same thing at the same time. Any kind of last minute instructions would be impossible to get out logistically.

[stickdog]

15. Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

:eyes:

[KaraokeKarlton]

8. Well, if Gephardt weren't going to try to organize something similar

to try to get some of Kerry's supporters to help him win Iowa then Dean's campaign wouldn't be at all interested in thinking about how they should counter Gephardts underhanded tricks. :shrug:

[BootinUp]

10. Deans not gonna have many extra votes

looking at recent polls they're going to busy just trying to get the win.

[ShimokitaJer]

13. Yepsen on Fox News three days ago

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,107759,00.html

HUME: Is it your sense from years of covering those caucuses out there, David, that there's enough kind of loose, potential caucus-goers out there that could actually end up having -- giving Dean a race for his money. I mean that he might not even win?

YEPSEN: That's possible, Brit, I don't think it's probable.



He goes on to say the same thing highlighted in the original post about how uncertain the caucus process is, which is undeniable with so many undecideds.

But make no mistake that this article is NOT about Dean probably being beaten, but about Dean being close enough to his rivals that he may have to rethink his strategy regarding looking forward to New Hampshire. Saying he won't be able to win both races from Iowa is hardly the same as suggesting he's in any trouble.

And yes, DemBones, this is how politics is played in caucus states.

[stickdog]

14. What about the DLC's strategy of using Gephardt, Kerry and Lieberman

as anti-Dean kamikazidates to benefit Clark?

What's your take on this strategy?

Is it dishonest as well?

[DemBones DemBones]

17. Got proof?

I don't think any of the candidates criticize Dean to benefit another candidate. They all want him off the island.

You're trying to claim that Kerry, Gephardt, and Lieberman are tools of the DLC. I think that's untrue. Although Lieberman is closely tied to the DLC, I don't think he would do their bidding to help Clark.

[stickdog]

19. No.

That's the fucking point.

[sandnsea]

18. Actions speak louder

If people would look at the actions of people over the last ten years, this stupid DLC shit would flush right down the toilet. Our Democrats are split on almost every vote which is why stuff gets passed. There's nothing to indicate the DLC has any influence. Feinstine voted for Medicare and my own Senator Wyden voted for it too. Wyden, DLC stooge???

Dean has plenty of support from Washington Democrats. There's no conspiracy against him.

[stickdog]

20. Feinstein is a DLC whore through & through. As for Wyden, why don't you

tell me why any real Dem would vote for that piece of shit?

[BeyondGeography]

21. Can't you come up with a new glossary of terms?

eom

[stickdog]

23. Feinstein voted FOR repealing the estate tax.

When I asked her why, she handed me a report from the Hoover-fucking-Institute. No lie.

So how much clearer do I need to make this for you?

[ShimokitaJer]

22. DLC leader Al From on Howard Dean

From Jan. 6 Newshour
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/jan-june04/dean_01-06.html

JIM LEHRER: You just don't really like this guy I take it.

AL FROM: It's not a personal deal. It really isn't. But it is about the direction of this party. Some of us spent ... have spent a very long time trying to modernize this party so the party that was in the wilderness for a very long time could become competitive again in presidential elections so we could do all the good things for our friends and the people who make up the core of the Democratic Party. I think in the 1990s we did a very good job of that.

JIM LEHRER: And Howard Dean...

AL FROM: And I think we ought to build on that. Howard Dean has got to have a compelling vision for the future of the country because he can't run against a president who has 60 or 65 percent approval rating and win unless he can persuade people who like Bush that he'll be a better president.

[stickdog]

24. Exactly. From thinks the best way to beat Bush is to run on his

coattails.