Electoral Vote - is it a coincidence?

[Enrico]

is it a coincidence that the www.electoral-vote.com isn't working today, since Kerry was almost neck and neck yesterday according to the polls?

[DaveinMD]

1. the person

who runs that site is a Democrat

[bryant69]

8. You know for sure?

Just curious, because I've had my suspicions about that site. Not enough to hang my hat on, but some questions.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[apnu]

2. prolly...

I heard that the site administrator is a Democrat but is trying very hard to remain neutral in terms of the code on the site. That he/she honestly wants to have an accruate picture of predicting the EV's based off all polling data available.

[requiem99]

4. They're going about it in a really strange way. Methodology is TERRIBLE.

[apnu]

6. I'm not arguing the methodology

I'm just vouching for the administrator's sincerity.

However, yes, the site's methodology is confusing.

[Bucky]

12. the "vote projection" page is a waste, but the home page is pretty useful

[texasaggiedemocrat]

3. Was working...

It was working this morning. I checked an Kerry was up! 280

[newyawker99]

19. Hi texasaggiedemocrat!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Polemonium]

5. working fine for me Kerry 280, Shrub 239

Cheers -- don't go looking for conspiracies among friends.

[bullimiami]

11. it is having loading problems with the graphics it seems

if you get tired at stop it partially done

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:   Kerry 280   Bush 239

traffic or server issue i would guess.

[Renew Deal]

14. Not working for me either.

It was before.

[drdigi420]

7. It's working, but it is getting hammered

maybe someone is trying to do a DoS on them

[Homerr]

9. 2-3 days ago the Votemaser said he was a Dem.

[funkybutt]

10. I was just about to post the same thing

I'm sure they are trying to come up with some other polls so that they can crunch the numbers in Bush's favor like they usually do.

[realcountrymusic]

13. E-V.com *is* on our side in a smart way

Come on! If you've followed the site for the past 6 months or so, there's no question about where the admin stands personally. S/he has a very scrupulous (okay rigid) method of calculating EVs based on most recent polls -- the count is almost fully automated. But it's the best thing of its kind for that reason. It is always *very* up to date on the latest state polls. It provides links to important resources for understanding what polls mean. And the admin calls 'em like s/he sees 'em. (I think it is a "he" by the way.) Better to see a mathematically strict account than to read an overly rosy account any day, IMHO.

And today it is carrying a prominent discussion about and link to the Salon "Bush earpiece" story. Since E-V gets *huge* traffic, this is fantastic for circulating at least the suspicion so that the media will lat least maybe look into the issue. I suspect that is why the site is getting hammered today, and thus loading slowly. Also, it's the first time the site has shown a Kerry lead beyond the margin of victory in several weeks, so a lot of us are probably hitting it just for the cheer-up value.


It's a real service. Don't slam it unfairly. My 2 cents.

RCM

[sonicx]

15. He's a Democrat, but tries to be fair

i don't agree with some of the ways he tries that, however.

[SeanQ]

16. Provide links to a couple other E-V and poll trackers then for comparison.

[realcountrymusic]

17. Try these two

http://www.electionprojection.com (honest about being a right wing f*ckwad)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com (dishonest about being neutral, right wing shills)

[DemsUnited]

18. Have followed this site for months

and am very grateful to have it as a resource!! Even more important than the EV numbers is the daily commentary. Factual, encouraging, educational -- like an awesome piece on how skewed those double digit for Bush Times & Newsweek polls really were). Kept me from mentally throwing the towel in on Kerry during an awful September!

Whoever maintains this site has put in hours of research and tons of thought into tuning his/her methodolgy as those polls come in, fast and furious. All I can say is THANKS.