Kerry's hidden advantage in the Polls

[fizzana]

We're being bombarded by more and more polls yet all the pundits are ignoring the cell-phone polling issue as well as new voter registrations.

In addition, all indications point to a much higher turnout than we've seen in the past few elections. Conventional wisdom has always been that the Democrats benefit if the turnout is bigger.

Another group that isn't being polled is the active duty military which is unlikely to be as solidly behind Bush as previous.

It all adds up to an advantage for Kerry that the polls are not revealing. I believe it could be anywhere from an additional 2-6 points which could be huge come November 2.

[billybob537]

1. Keep this quiet

it's our secret weapon.

[rndmprsn]

2. our own Nov surprise...

[Infomaniac]

3. Shhhh! Be verrry, verrry qwiet

It's Bush Season and we don't want the freeper trolls to know. ;=>

[fizzana]

4. There's nothing they can do about it.

Let their fear escalate.

Anyway, I have a dinner for 4 at a fancy French Restuarant riding on the election. Bring it on.

[Infomaniac]

7. I believe you're going to collect on that bet. EOM

[Awsi Dooger]

5. I'll continue to challenge any blatant exaggerations

2 points is possible based on those factors and others, 6 points is outer space.

The turnout issue is the most valid you raised. Particularly if we can energize the 18-24 year old bracket. It's often mentioned that group votes in much lesser percentage than any other age bracket, about 31% in 2000. But in many states it was considerably lower than that, something like 21% or 22% in the states of New Mexico and Arizona, for example. Our registration drives have been zeroing in on the youth vote.

Otherwise, major polling firms are aware of the cell phone issue and take that into account, as much as possible. Less than 10% of households are cell phone only, probably 6-8% according to most estimates. That group is considered the 25 and under crowd, for the most part. It's much more vital we get them registered and to the polls than have them included in pre election polls.

[SonofMass]

6. All signs are rellly pointing to a HUGE African-American

turnout. The first time voters (aloso HUGE) will break 10-1 for Kerry.