Things Better Than They Seem - Repuke Oversampling in Gallup State Polls

[jefferson_dem]

Thanks to http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002972.html for detailing the obvious sampling bias by Gallup Things are much better than the state poll results indicate.

New Mexico
Poll Done October 3-6, 2004
673 Reported Likely Voters (LV), 669 Actual In Sample
Results:
Bush: 50%
Kerry: 47%
Party ID From LV Sample Per Gallup
Rep 258 (38%)
Ind 130 (19%)
Dem 281 (42%)

2000 Exit Poll Party ID
Dem: 43%
GOP: 32%
Ind: 25%

Colorado
Poll Done October 3-6, 2004
667 Reported Likely Voters, 663 Actual in Sample
Results:
Bush: 49%
Kerry: 49%

Party ID From LV Sample Per Gallup
Rep 260 (39%)
Ind 198 (30%)
Dem 205 (31%)

2000 Exit Poll Party ID
Dem: 35%
GOP: 36%
Ind: 29%

Wisconsin
Poll Done October 3-5, 2004
704 Reported Likely Voters, 694 Actual In Sample
Results:
Bush: 49%
Kerry: 46%

Party ID From LV Sample Per Gallup
Rep 246 (35%)
Ind 213 (30%)
Dem 235 (33%)

2000 Exit Poll Party ID
Dem: 37%
GOP: 32%
Ind: 31%

[lancdem]

1. What the hell is Gallup's problem?

This is pathetic.

[jefferson_dem]

4. Lame methodology by Gallup for sure. Still, this is very good news for us

in that the numbers are what they are EVEN with the hardcore bias.

Looking good!

[trotsky]

5. Gallup CLAIMS

that they call people, ask who they are voting for, THEN ask for party affiliation. And for whatever reason, they CLAIM more people are identifying themselves as Republican. We shall see.

[wurzel]

2. ABC "VP debate winner" Poll was 38% Republican, 31% Democrat.

Jennings admitted that the first time the poll was aired. But this warning was never repeated by anyone after that. Why 38% Republican was never explained.

[lsuguy]

3. thanks for these numbers -- very helpful

Not sure I'd blame Gallup for being partisan per se -- it's just that their whoever-answers attitude is a less sophisticated method than some like Zogby and Rasmussen that weight and correct the sample. Gallup is doing it the old way.

It's nice to know that with better information, we're in good shape in these places.

Go Kerry!!!