Whatever poll there is in Iowa, add several points to Dean for new voters

[Dems Will Win]

Droves of young people and former non-voters are going to walk in and register on the spot and caucus for Dean. The pollsters blew this whole campaign (deliberately I think) because they did not want to find out how many new voters Dean is going to really bring in. So they just polled voters already registered (as they usually do).

The answer is add an extra 6 to 7 points for Dean in any poll for new voters brought. If the latest poll is 30-23, a real poll which surveyed the likely new caucus goers (it can be done) would be Dean 37, Gep 22 (the extra voters swell the rolls and push Gep down a point). Will be interesting to see the final numbers but my experience tells me it will be closer to 37-22 than 30-23 on the intial groupings in the caucus. Also the undecided can remain uncommitted and those delegates would be apportioned. Kucinich, Sharpton and Braun voters will likely go to Dean, while the Edwards and Clark supporters will split between Kerry and Gephardt on the second round.

No telling how the second round goes, but often the one in the lead on the first round gets the lion's share in the second.

[funky_bug]

1. If Dean can get voters active

I'm all for that. We have too many passive, frightened/intimidated citizens sitting on the sidelines, letting others make their decisions for them.

I do love how Dean has energized the public. His work with grassroots made it possible for the most timid to say, "I have the power." I'm sorry that Gore wasn't able to do that when he had his shot.

[Dems Will Win]

2. The candidate town meetings on C-Span all showed incredible numbers

of young voters. This Millennial Generation is going to vote because of Iraq and they're breaking mostly Dean and Kucinich and some to Clark for his anti-war stance.

[hellhathnofury]

3. I hope but caucuses aren't that easy. If it was a primary yes.

[ozone_man]

4. Good reasoning DWW.

I think Dean and DK will have generated a substantial base of new voters. They are the two who are exciting people who have not had reason to participate before, or who are just coming of age.

[morgan2]

5. you dont think that

Kucinich Sharpton and Braun will be bringing in new Caucus voters? I know in my case if it wasn't for them, specifically Kucinich, I would still be a registered independant. In a primary like this with so many different candidates I would expect the polls to be way off because of their inability to predict who will be the "likely" caucus or primary voters.

[slinkerwink]

7. because in a caucus, they won't have the 15% needed for viability

and they'll have to throw their support to someone else.

[thebigthink]

6. They're probably in there already

Usually they just ask if you're a registered voter and how likely you are to be attending your caucus. If they screen for just past caucus-goers, they would typically state that in the results.