New Zogby Tracking Poll Numbers : Kerry 46 / Chimp 45

[jefferson_dem]

Kerry has gained one point and chimp lost one point compared to yesterday!

Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: Dead Heat Race For the White House Continues: Kerry, 46% - Bush, 45% - New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals

The race for the White House remains dead-locked, with Senator Kerry at 46% and President Bush at 45%, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1216 likely voters was conducted from Wednesday through Friday (October 6-8,2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

<SNIP>

Pollster JohnZogby: "Kerry has pulled into a one point lead which obviously is wellwithin the margin of error. Bush leads in the Red States by 11 points,while Kerry leads in the Blue States by 14 points. This is good evidence thatKerry is consolidating his base with 83% of support among Democrats, 88% ofAfrican-Americans, 4% of Hispanics, 79% of Jews, and 53% of 18-29 year olds. Kerry leads 2 to 1 in union households and is attaining 65% among singlevoters."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=880

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Wow... Kerry's Getting 4% Of Hispanic Votes...

Definitely room for improvement


LOL

[mom cat]

4. The bleary eyed don't have emough coffee in them yet. Yawn.

[RodneyCK2]

2. It still boggles my mind to think that nearly half of the voters...

want Bush for another four years. What has this president and his administration done in the past four years to garnish this kind of support? Strange.

[Cheswick2.0]

3. 96 percent of Hispanic voters are voting Bush??????

Is that a misprint?

[Zynx]

5. Most certainly yes it is a misprint.

[Tesibria]

6. Hispanics - 63.8 % - misprint

I'm sure they meant to round up to 64.

I checked Zogby - can't give link b/c it's subscription. Have to take my word for it :)

[Tesibria]

7. Michael Moore might be right ... per Zogby..Military vote SPLIT

Here's an interesting one.

Of those polled to say they are in the armed forces, or have family in the armed forces (this includes veterans)...

Bush: 46.9%
Kerry: 45.1%

While Bush is ahead, it's well within the margin of error.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. The Military Vote Is Interesting

The intervening variable is that about 30% of the military are people of color and Dems do very well among this demographic....

[Dob Bole]

9. 46/45...that leaves a lot of undecideds, which is good for us....nt

[Zynx]

10. If Bush can only poll 45-46%, he is fucked.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Zogby Said It's Too Early To Push The Leaners And Undecideds (nt)

[BillZBubb]

12. Two observations.

1) I have seen a talking head on Charlie Rose claim that a Democrat has never won the White House without at least 70% of the hispanic vote. He was from the Telemundo network, I think. Clearly Kerry has some work to do, 64% is too low.

2) If Bush* is polling below 48% near election day, he will not win. He needs a 4% lead on Kerry to overcome the Democrats ground game.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. The 70% Is Probably True But An Artifact...

If Kerry was breaking even in this demographic I'd be concerned.....


I'd like to be ahead in the final horserace poll average but if we are down a point or two I won't be overly concerned...